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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
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Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
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Armageddon
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Joined: Apr 13, 2005
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Location: St.Louis, Mo

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

There are definitely people running this show, but the problem is they didn't account for peak oil until it was too late. They now want to conquer oil rich nations to keep their party going. The only part of the equation that is difficult to figure out is where does Russia and China stand ? We know the Rothschilds and co. control Europe and the US, that not even debatable, it's public knowledge.
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threadbear
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Zardoz wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
There seems to be a great human need to believe that someone or something is in control: the PTB, the King, the Pope, Satan. In reality there is no one in control here! This is a system that is running amuck; one that has gone rampant. A self feeding monstrosity that is consuming the world, and us with it. If you think the PTB and their little schemes for global domination are frightening, you have not yet met Chaos.

One of the most astute comments yet on this mess.

Nobody's in charge, folks. Some of us are kidding themselves that this is all being directed from above in order to bring about some sort of desired end.

Bullshit. We're seeing the unplanned, unforeseen results of avaricious greed on the part of a vast number of people. Nobody has a handle on what's going to happen because nobody has anything close to an accurate idea of the true scope and severity of the situation.

We're all stumbling through a minefield in the dark. We can step on another one at any moment.


I actually agree, conspiracy theorist, though I am. There is ZERO benefit to the banks and financials to foreclose and become the owners of personal property. This is a conspiracy of greed, "free" market zealotry and social sociopathy.
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Iaato said:

Quote:
Phoenix has it wrong; as we have discussed, the rise in commodities is a function of inflation. Less energy circulating + more money circulating = inflation. He's implying that the inflation of oil is a head game....

Bond prices traditionally go up in an inflationary environment. T-bills are hitting record lows; the 30 day hit .69% today. This is an indication that inflation is not driving equities.

Housing is going down, financials are collapsing and food and commodities are heading for the moon. These are all signs that people are losing faith in the money and the system. They are looking for tangible goods for which they perceive will retain their value. There is a loss of confidence in the market. It started with subprime, and has now advanced to anything based on paper.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
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idiom
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:36 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Next step is everyone empties their accounts at the same time...
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Iaato
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Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

shortonoil wrote:
Bond prices traditionally go up in an inflationary environment. T-bills are hitting record lows; the 30 day hit .69% today. This is an indication that inflation is not driving equities.


No, I was referring to the inflation of the prices of the commodities themselves, wheat and oil, rather than equities. I'm still trying to decide what combination of factors is driving equities right now.

threadbear wrote:
How is more money actually circulating, right now? It needs a delivery system. Unless the banks and financials can somehow get back on a solid footing, and resume their role of funnelling money into the economy by lending, it stops. What or who is going to assume this role?


TB, I really don't know for sure if more money is circulating now, except for the Shadowstats M3, and the behavior of the commodities. And the knowledge that the fractional reserve system is designed to expand. The behavior of the commodities prices may due to the combination of less energy inputs and more money circulating, or it may be just due to the contribution of less energy inputs alone. If we haven't actually begun to add money to the system yet, given the rise in commodity prices already, then woe is us!

If more money is circulating, the delivery system is the exchange of an expanding selection of bad mortgage paper for treasuries at increasing numbers of fed drive-up pawn-shop windows, whose hours and locations are expanding rapidly.

Weren't we just on page 200 of this thread? Talk about inflation.
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TreeFarmer
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Joined: Jun 26, 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Someone mentioned issueing a new currency. Why would we need to do that? Most of the inflation of the money supply is electronic in nature, it can go away as easily as it was created. The "real" haha money in circulation is the coins and paper money that we all hold and the banks have in their vaults.

When (if) there are major defaults it will result in the destruction of electrons, the tangible money will still exist.

I guess that is the thing about leverage working the other way, the trillion created by some entity who only had a million to begin with but leveraged it highly will just evaporate when that entity goes belly up.

TF
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Iaato
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

That's a good question, TF. By the time we are done manipulating the heck out of the economic system, all faith in electronic fiat will be gone. There were some good threads this year here on digital currency and whether we would make it there or not. I think the consensus was no; that economic collapse would occur before we evolved to the level of credit chips embedded in our wrists.

So we'll have to start over with a tangible bill and coin and they'll have to look very different from the old ones, because of the bad taste in everyones' mouths. Unless we crest the peak oil peak and start down so quickly that we go right to barter and gold. Ha.

I think you're right that a lot of the worthless paper/electronic digits will just go poof. But they won't go poof without taking down a lot of corporations in the process.

Speaking of going poof, I want to return to the topic of the drop in commodities the last few days. I suppose the hedge funds are having to give up all their long positions as they go poof and deleverage. There are 9000 or so hedge funds out there. A lot of them are long commodities and commodity stocks. How low can we go?!?

What a ride. I love rollercoasters.
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retiredguy
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I just heard a talking-head on CNBC say that the interest rate reduction by the Fed is not helping. He said that the problem is still the same: money cannot be had at any interest rate.

Why did the Fed bail out Bear Stearns rather than let them face bankruptcy? One Op-Ed piece I read today suggested that, as disruptive as a bankruptcy at Bear would have been, that at least through the proceeding the auditors would have been able to determine just how much toxic waste they owned. By so doing, according to the writer's logic, a floor would be established to stabilize the financial system.

Sounds good a face value. But my suspicion is that the Fed has a pretty good idea of how much toxic waste is still floating around the system and certainly does not want that info to see the light of day. At least not yet.

Your thoughts??
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Iaato said:

Quote:
No, I was referring to the inflation of the prices of the commodities themselves, wheat and oil, rather than equities. I'm still trying to decide what combination of factors is driving equities right now.


You are asking what is driving up the price of oil and food?

1) We are burning 6 barrels for every one we find and have been for 35 years.
2) The world population is growing by 84 million per year and there is very little high value farm land left to develop.
3) etc.

Increasing price does not necessarily mean inflation. Housing prices are crashing, and bond values are declining. That is not inflation. Oil and food prices are increasing and have been for the last six years. Even though the money supply has been increasing rapidly for the last several years, my bet, it is now in a step nose dive. This is because it is being destroyed massively in the financial industry. The collapse of the credit markets assure that it can’t be replaced.

There is no reason why you can’t have increasing price on some products during a deflationary period. You just can’t have it on the majority of things, like you do when there is inflation.

The FED is in a panic because without the revitalization of the credit markets, it will not be possible for them to inject enough money into the system to service the debt that already exists. Debt will (or is) overwhelming the economy until it implodes.

Sound familiar?
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retiredguy
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Joined: Jan 11, 2005
Posts: 540
Location: southern Wisconsin

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Regarding gold. I heard tonight that it could drop to $800 before recovering.

It's going to be an interesting ride.
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firestarter
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Joined: Mar 19, 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Gold down another $21 after hours. Massive margin calls?

Roubini has a short and disturbing blip at his site. This is really getting out of hand. Futures are also plummeting.
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idiom
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Computer Power has been deflating at something close to 50% every 18 months for decades now. That has never been factored into any CPI Smile
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DantesPeak
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:

Today's BIG story was with Merrill. They sued one of their CDS insurers alleging they are in default. This has the potential to domino out of control among couterparty interests. Nobody trusts each other out there. The Fed, in letting everyone cover up their toxic crap, has failed miserably. More carnage to come....soon.



The company which is insuring the CDS for Merril may be close to bankruptcy, which explains why they can't pay out.

The parent company of the insurer, SECURITY CAPITAL ASSURANCE LTD, filed its annual report this week. Probably that's when ML suddenly realized it's 'insurance' was worth about as much as stock in Bear Stearns.

I don't think the Fed can do anything here to prevent this bankruptcy, the failure of $60 billion in insurance contracts, and the counter-party loss on SCA's $65 billion in derivative contracts.

SEC Filing - Security Capital

Quote:
Our notional exposure, net of reinsurance, from the issuance of CDS policies was $59.7 billion, $24.6 billion and $14.0 billion at December 31, 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively, which represented 36.2%, 20.8% and 17.1% of our total net par outstanding at these dates.


Well at least we will soon get to see how the famous 'test' of the marketplace in a derivative meltdown works out - but on a much smaller scale than the potential $13 trillion BS meltdown.
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threadbear
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 10:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Interesting article about why and who is responsible for the Spitzer affair

From AsiaTimesonline:

That article, laying clear blame on the administration for the development of the subprime crisis, appeared the day after his ill-fated tryst with the prostitute at the Mayflower Hotel. Just a coincidence? Spitzer wrote, "In 2003, during the height of the predatory lending crisis, the OCC invoked a clause from the 1863 National Bank Act pre-empting all state predatory lending laws, thereby rendering them inoperative. The OCC also promulgated new rules that prevented states from enforcing any of their own consumer protection laws against national banks."

In his article, Spitzer charged, "Not only did the Bush administration do nothing to protect consumers, it embarked on an aggressive and unprecedented campaign to prevent states from protecting their residents from the very problems to which the federal government was turning a blind eye."

Bush, said Spitzer right in the headline, was the "predator lenders' partner in crime". The president, said Spitzer, was a fugitive from justice. And Spitzer was in Washington to launch a campaign to take on the Bush regime and the biggest financial powers on the planet. Spitzer wrote, "When history tells the story of the subprime lending crisis and recounts its devastating effects on the lives of so many innocent homeowners the Bush administration will not be judged favorably."

With that article, Spitzer may well have signed his own political death warrant.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JC20Dj04.html
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Eli
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 10:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It is official the great unwind has begun.


Quote:
The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup Inc. strategists warned on Wednesday.
As markets and economies de-leverage across the globe, investors should avoid companies and countries that have grown to rely too much on borrowed money, they said.


Market Watch

Luckily I live in the US where we have the greatest economy in the world and...... wait a second!
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