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| QUESTION: What year will Arctic sea ice diminish to less than 100,000 square kilometers? (This year's record breaking low was just under 3 million.) |
| 2008-2012 |
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53% |
[ 23 ] |
| 2013 (as predicted recently) |
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16% |
[ 7 ] |
| 2014-2020 |
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20% |
[ 9 ] |
| 2020-2040 (in line with IPCC) |
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6% |
[ 3 ] |
| after that |
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2% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 43 |
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Pixie
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 05, 2006
Posts: 344
Location: Oregon
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 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:10 pm Post subject: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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This poll is related to the thread, 'Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' by Cabrone. I thought we needed a poll. Note I did not say, when will arctic sea ice disappear? There might always be a few chunks of ice hanging around, but less than 100,000 square km is basically ice-free.
I'll run this poll until next August 2008, when the drama will begin anew, as we wait with baited breath to see how low the sea ice gets in September 2008.
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essex
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 12, 2004
Posts: 161
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 9:54 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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This is a completely loaded poll. Bit like asking Christian fundamentalists
" Is Jesus God ? "
even though a half intelligent reading of the Bible does not support the premise. |
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Tyler_JC
Moderator
Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4412
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:25 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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Should have specified "summer" ice in your poll.
Because I don't think we'll see the end of winter sea ice for a long time.
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Pixie
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 05, 2006
Posts: 344
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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| essex wrote: | This is a completely loaded poll. Bit like asking Christian fundamentalists
" Is Jesus God ? "
even though a half intelligent reading of the Bible does not support the premise. |
Haha! I guess you are commenting on the fact that I neglected to have a "never" option. Good point. Didn't even occur to me. Well, it's not meant to be scientific. Couldn't run a scientific poll on this forum if you wanted to. It's more just to get to know people and to read their comments on the subject.
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Pixie
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 05, 2006
Posts: 344
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | Should have specified "summer" ice in your poll.
Because I don't think we'll see the end of winter sea ice for a long time. |
Doh! I meant summer ice. Damn and blast!
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btu2012
Fission
Joined: Sep 24, 2007
Posts: 2584
Location: third from the sun
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| Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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| essex wrote: | This is a completely loaded poll. Bit like asking Christian fundamentalists " Is Jesus God ? "
even though a half intelligent reading of the Bible does not support the premise. |
Quite correct if by the fundamentalists you mean those in denial of GW. We'll just assume that this is what you meant.
Btu
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 2948
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:51 am Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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2008-2012 way out in front. You're Fark, polar bears!
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I'm just gonna find a cash machine. |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1000
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| Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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| If the question is phrased, "when will be the first year that the 10 square kilometers of sea around the north pole will contain less than 40% ice", then Id bet on 2012 as being the 50/50 break even likelyhood year for me. |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1000
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| Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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| Ill add I think that year round frozen seas will persis for longer near the North Greenland coast than the actual pole, because it will be the most protected from wind and wave action. |
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billg
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 623
Location: No man's land
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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Remember this poll...the median appears to be 2013. Has anybody had a change of heart?
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jbrovont
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 16, 2006
Posts: 341
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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Just speculation here, but I'm not sure we'll be filling out polls on the internet the year there isn't any ice in the arctic in the dead of the polar winter night. Cheer up guys 
| Tyler_JC wrote: | Should have specified "summer" ice in your poll.
Because I don't think we'll see the end of winter sea ice for a long time. |
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billg
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 623
Location: No man's land
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: When will Arctic Sea Ice disappear? |
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After seeing this image showing a comparison of Arctic ice thickness between Mar 07 and Mar 08, it's not so clear to me that the Arctic ice cap will melt off completely this summer. The loss of perennial ice doesn't seem as severe as I orginally thought. There will certainly be a lot more open water this summer, but it's hard to know whether or not the added absorption of solar energy will cause the rest of the ice to melt. Probably not.
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