Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Supplies rose 2.3 million barrels last week, according to the median of responses by 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before tomorrow's Energy Department report.
the analysts expect weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory data, due at 10.30 a.m. EST tomorrow, will show crude stocks rose by about 2.81 million barrels in the week to March 28.
Ahead of Wednesday's government inventory data, analysts in a preliminary Reuters poll forecast on Monday an average 2.3-million-barrel build in domestic crude oil inventories, a drop of 2.3 million barrels in gasoline stocks and a 1.5-million-barrel drawdown in distillate supplies. [EIA/S]
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 28, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.2 million barrels per day during the
week ending March 28,up 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average.
Refineries operated at 82.4 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging 8.6
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production remained flat last week,
averaging nearly 3.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day last week, up
nearly 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four
weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.8 million barrels per day,
486,000 barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor
gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
components) last week averaged 944,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 322,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.4 million barrels from the previous week. At
319.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 4.5 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average
range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components
inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6
million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time
of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last
week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels
last week, and are in the upper half of the average range for this
time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3
million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about 9.2
million barrels per day, unchanged from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
down 3.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 3.7
percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.
Quote:
Unleaded 28-Mar
Beginning Inv 229.2
Imports 6.608 0.944
Production 60.2 8.6
Available 296.008
Ending Inv 224.7
Balance 71.308
Balance/day 10.19
Prod Supplied 9.2
Actual Change -4.5
Deviation from Forecast -1.0
Distillates 28-Mar
Beginning Inv 111.3
Imports 2.254 0.322
Production 27.3 3.9
Available 140.854
Ending Inv 109.7
Balance 31.154
Balance/day 4.50
Prod Supplied 4.2
Actual Change -1.6
Deviation from Forecast 0.5
Crude Oil 28-Mar
Beginning Inv 311.8
Production 35.686 5.098
Imports 72.1 10.3
Total Available 419.586
Provided to Ref 99.4 14.2 82.4
Ending Inventory 319.2
Actual Change 7.4
Deviation from Forecast 5.58
I am not too sad about being only 1-2 vs. the analysts this week. The big increase in crude oil inventory was an artifact of a big batch of imports coming in, and will probably be offset by a big decrease next week. The forecast above was off by .2 in crude oil provided to refineries, and by .6 by the imports, so that was the whole thing.
I tried to tell you the unleaded drawdown would be pretty high, for exactly the same reasons we talked about.
The distillates: we got back up to our normal level of imports on this. Everything else pretty much what we expected. Europe finally got enough diesel. My forecast was off by the import amount.
All of this has a chance to be favorable for the refiners. The market will see this big build in crude oil and probably sell off, but people will notice the big drain in unleaded supplies, causing that to take off, so the refinery margins maybe will be better by the end of the week. My overall prediction in the refinery thread was that the unleaded will be higher than heating oil by the end of the month, and this is the kind of report that will make it happen.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Pup55, great insights on unleaded.
It looks like that 3 million or so missing barrels of Mexican oil showed up last week, a bit earlier than I thought. Subtracting that, we come back to about 9.8 million barrels per day or imports – pretty close to the 9.6 to 9.7 mbpd I think we are averaging in late March/early April.
Distillate inventories are still falling due to seasonal demand and exports to Europe, despite a minor uptick in distillate imports. Cold weather has dragged on in the Northern Hemisphere longer than usual, and we may only see distillate inventories bottom out after warm weather finally arrives – and hopefully before we reach minimum operating levels.
Refinery production was very low last week, but as pup55 says, a big drop in gasoline inventories and larger refining margins may coax refiners to step up production.
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:43 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
as I hold some shares of refining companies.. let them hold out for
higher gas futures,, like 3 bucks or something like that,,,, let the
inventories drain more to compensate for the weak US consumer,
let them beg for it.
I think we pretty much have the situation figured out for the moment.
Is there any compelling reason for the refiners to run up production right now? No. The inventory level is still pretty high, the margins are terrible, and it is still spring maintenance season for the time being. So, unleaded and distillate production are both going to be low, and crude oil refinery inputs are not going to be particularly high.
The second thing is imports: Unleaded imports have been pretty consistent around .95 mbpd, and distillate imports have only recently ticked up a little bit, they were about .20 mbpd all spring. The only real wild card is the crude oil imports, which have been oscillating between 10.3 and 8.6 for awhile, due to unloading issues, etc.
Finally demand: Distillate demand has been right on the seasonality for awhile, and although the nominal products supplied for Unleaded has been pretty close to last year, the "balance demand" has been much higher, as we explained last week.
So we should see another sizeable drawdown in unleaded, a smaller drawdown in distillates, and the crude oil will build a little, unless there was some situation last week which caused an excess or deficiency in imports.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Thanks pup55.
There seems to be a lot of agreement now that OPEC did indeed cut back exports to the US by at least 100,000 barrels per day starting about six weeks ago. So my new WAG is that US imports will run about 9.6 mbpd in early April, and maybe most of April.
But that's not the current problem. Despite record high diesel prices in the US, diesel continues to be exported, and exports of diesel may actually increase due to a loss of a major refinery in Europe for a month or so. So far there have been no reports of diesel shortages in the US, but we may be getting very close to some type of minimum operating level for diesel supplies before that supply situation improves:
Quote:
Mon Apr 7, 2008 5:20pm BST
Neste said damage from the fire at the Porvoo refinery in Finland would delay the startup of a diesel unit, crimping supply as Europe competes with South America for U.S. shipments.
"We saw a couple cargoes of diesel leave for Europe last week and it looks pretty likely we'll see more leaving," said on New York Harbor based distillates dealer.
A fuel crunch in parts of South America has also drawn U.S. distillate supply. Chile's state oil company told Reuters last week it expects diesel imports to grow this year by up to 10 percent after tripling in 2007 as the country struggles to keep its power generators fueled.
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 6:38 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
dukey wrote:
Quote:
Despite record high diesel prices in the US
Diesel is £1.20/litre at my local
you do the math
At $9.60 a gallon there would be blood in the street around here. Of course England does not have to distribute their chinese crap as far from its ports as we do. _________________ Nature is complete because it does not serve itself.
The sage places himself after and finds himself before,
Ignores his desire and finds himself content.
He is complete because he does not serve himself. -Lao Tze
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:47 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Analysts expect oil stockpiles grew last week by 2.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires. For the week ended March 28, crude-oil inventories gained 7.4 million barrels, or 2.4 percent, to 319.2 million barrels, which were 3.3 percent below year-ago levels.
Gasoline inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels, or 2 percent, to 224.7 million barrels, which were 10.7 percent above year-ago levels. Analysts expect stockpiles of the motor fuel fell by another 2.3 million barrels last week.
Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended March 28 was 0.5 percent lower than a year earlier, averaging nearly 9.2 million barrels a day.
At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 82.4 percent of total capacity on average, a gain of 0.2 percentage point. Analysts expect capacity rose by 0.8 percentage point last week.
Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.6 million barrels to 109.7 million barrels for the week ended March 28. Analysts expect distillate stocks fell by another 1 million barrels last week.
dding to oil's softness, analysts said they expected a report from the EIA due Wednesday to show a 2.2-million-barrel increase in nationwide crude stockpiles due to higher import levels.
Supplies of distillate fuels fell 1.5 million barrels last week, the survey showed. It would be the ninth-straight inventory decline. Gasoline stockpiles dropped 3 million barrels, according to the responses.
Well, this should cause some excitement. The drawdown in distillates was due to the low import level, which DP noted earlier in the week, plus unusually high demand.
The crude oil drawdown was 100% an artifact of the import situation, which is now coming in in batches, rather than some constant amount. Next week it ought to be higher again, but it makes the books look bad this week.
Unleaded, our estimates were pretty good. Notice that the gasoline demand is up .4% over the last year.
So we will have to see the market reaction from all of this.
Joined: Mar 20, 2007 Posts: 174 Location: There is no hope for the future
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Refineries operated at 83.0 percent of their operable capacity last
week.
Pup,
If refineries had operated at their 'normal' capacity and both crude and gasoline both saw draws this week, what would we be looking at should we see similar imports but an increase in operating capacity to replenish gasoline?
it seems to me that the draw was less than it should have been due to refiners operating at only 83%
I wonder if this is the beginning of the vicious peak oil treadmill, in which even as consumption goes down, supplies go down faster.
Has it ever happened, outside of a calamity like Hurricane Katrina, that we have seen decreases in consumption not resulting in increased inventories?
And, the scary thing, is just how high will the prices go? Seeing stories from Europe of fuel pushing upwards of $2 a liter makes you realize that it could happen this side of the ocean too.
I read in a Wall Street Journal report, just three weeks ago, that economists believed the oil prices were peaking in February and they were using just $72 a barrel oil in their longer term models. Wow, at $112 a barrel, just the difference in current price and economic modelled is higher than a barrel of oil was just five years ago!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Is the US exporting itself into a diesel supply crisis?
Those that believe that free import-export energy markets will always best serve the interests of the US need read no further. You won’t like what I’m about to say.
The slow bleed of diesel exports starting about six weeks is gradually accelerating, and taking diesel inventories down to as extremely low amount above minimum operating levels. [MOLs are the lowest level of inventories in pipeline and tanks that will keep the fuel delivery system efficiently functioning].
EIA statistics state that US oil product exports only increased 50,000 or so barrels per day in March, but that amount may be understated. The actual figure may be closer to 100,000 bpd, and in addition, there is another factor to consider - diesel imports intended for the US may now be ending up elsewhere in the world. Diesel imports are running well below last year, as you can see in the chart below.
Will the run down in diesel inventories cause a shortage? Today’s price for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel is about $3.58 a gallon (NYC wholesale), as compared to about $3.25 a week ago – certainly a sign of great stress in the market. Still there are no reports of shortages – yet. But there will be if the one-two combination of falling diesel imports and rising diesel exports continue.
While total distillate inventories (which includes diesel) are an already down a notable 11.5 million barrels from last year, the slow daily bleed from exports will have a cumulative effect that will have extremely serious ramifications on the US transportation and farming industries if continued.
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