It begins

retiredguy · Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: It begins

Looks as if the recession is hitting the supposedly recession-proof Madison area.

Two of my neighbors were laid off last week. Another has been on lay-off since before Thanksgiving. Another guy I know who works for a heating/cooling company was laid off last week.

A laser printing company founded twenty years ago by two guys I know went out of business suddenly on Friday. By suddenly, I mean they ceased work on jobs in progress and closed the door.

My guess is that this is just the beginning.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3681

I watch some CNBC, and it never ceases to amaze me how often I have heard lately "my business traditionally does OK when there is a recession". You hear it a dozen times a day.

The fact is, in a recession, nobody does well. If you are really lucky or skillful, you survive.

Also, if you are under the age of 50, you do not remember what the last really serious recession was really like.

TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 319

My occupation has traditionally been counter cyclicial, I'm a professor. However, this time may be different given that almost all students now pay for their education via loans.

This is one time I have to wait and see what happens I guess. The one good thing is that I'm #2 on the senority list out of 6, if they get to me they are shutting down the university where I work.

TF

Novus · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 1700

Or maybe just shutting down your department. What subject do you teach? I could definitely see some of the liberal arts and humanities getting cut off at some point.

TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 319

I have a PH.D. in Business and my specialty is Operations Management and Operations Research. I have a double minor in statistics and my undergraduate degree is in Mechanical Engineering.

With the variety of business courses I can teach the only way they'll be firing me due to downsizing is if they eliminate the College of Business at the Univeristy where I teach. Smile

TF

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3235 Location: Maine

I hope my job is there, but I really don't know. If I lose it, than we click into plan B. A really mean recession and I'll just jump back into the university so that I can come out a really educated fool. I would like to study something like sustainability education.

We'll burn that bridge when we come to it...

The hot breath of the recession is beginning to be felt. It hasn't quite caught us yet, but it's coming fast now.

I have heard that the bank debacle is far worse than we know.

Bear Stearns was just the beginning.

I remember the last really serious recession. It was a real drag.
_________________
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.

skeptik · Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: It begins

Gandalf_the_White · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 21, 2007 Posts: 511

Tree Farmer that is an impressive background. You know you are inviting scorn by admitting to teaching our business leaders. Since you are here and apparently very intelligent can I ask,... how do you incorporate energy issues into a business curriculum? Do your colleagues know how you feel about peak oil? I forgot to ask if you are doomer or optimist, either way I'm sure you have some good points to make.
_________________
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.

Lumpy · Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: Re: It begins

I think craftsmen and tradesmen (e.g. mechanics - fix-it guys) and medical people will be hit later.

But all of us are going to see changes. Big changes.

Lumpy
_________________
Dean Karnazes : "Run when you can, walk when you have to, crawl if you must; just never give up." --- Jackie Joyner-Kersee: "It is better to look forward & prepare, than to look back & regret."

Cyrus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 25, 2005 Posts: 613

Something to add:

Over here in the chicago burbs stripmalls, storefronts, indoor malls, and basically all retail fronts are all loosing all of their businesses. The St. Charles mall built in the 90's, a high end ornate type suburban mall sits almost empty with at least 3/4 of the stores vacant.

frankthetank · Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: It begins

Was just in Madison this past week. Still looks like some building going on over on the west side of town. Traffic didn't seem all that bad for 5pm... I remember seeing a lot "for lease" signs when i was down there a few months ago. At least you've got the university there, and "Shurfine"!
_________________
"Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07

TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 319

I would say that I'm an optimist. Now, with that said, I don't pretend to guarantee that there will be some smooth transition after peak oil. Personally, and it really depends on what the backside of peak oil is like, I expect to see a transitional period of unknown turbulance.

There are so many wildcards out there that it is impossible to say what will happen. Examples of this would be developments in battery tech, solar tech, fuel cell tech...

Decent advances in the three I mentioned would get most non-commercial traffic off of oil, which of course would allow us to use remaining oil in trains, trucks, and machinery. That would really stretch out the lifespan of the remaining oil.

I guess I expect us to get through any transitional period but I'm not by any stretch of the imagination expecting a technological panacea to appear overnight. We'll all be living differently 10 years from now.

That might mean making sure you have your gorcery list with you so that when you are coming back from work you can stop at the grocery store, thus driving the absolute minimum number of miles. It might mean that your battery/solar powered car sits in the sun all day so that you can drive home after work. It might mean that if you live in the suburbs a good many miles from work that you tele-commute 3 days a week and go into the office on 2. Those 2 might be consecutive so that you can sleep in a motel or even your office and thus cut down on driving.

I'll stop rambling now. My view is that we'll get though it somehow and adapt to whatever we have. After all, our other option is to just lie down and die. Smile

TF

vision-master · Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: It begins

View into the future!
Big Dummy with electric motor.
link to image

Kingcoal · Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: It begins