Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Jan 11, 2005 Posts: 576 Location: southern Wisconsin
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: It begins
Looks as if the recession is hitting the supposedly recession-proof Madison area.
Two of my neighbors were laid off last week. Another has been on lay-off since before Thanksgiving. Another guy I know who works for a heating/cooling company was laid off last week.
A laser printing company founded twenty years ago by two guys I know went out of business suddenly on Friday. By suddenly, I mean they ceased work on jobs in progress and closed the door.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
I watch some CNBC, and it never ceases to amaze me how often I have heard lately "my business traditionally does OK when there is a recession". You hear it a dozen times a day.
The fact is, in a recession, nobody does well. If you are really lucky or skillful, you survive.
Also, if you are under the age of 50, you do not remember what the last really serious recession was really like.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
My occupation has traditionally been counter cyclicial, I'm a professor. However, this time may be different given that almost all students now pay for their education via loans.
This is one time I have to wait and see what happens I guess. The one good thing is that I'm #2 on the senority list out of 6, if they get to me they are shutting down the university where I work.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
Or maybe just shutting down your department. What subject do you teach? I could definitely see some of the liberal arts and humanities getting cut off at some point.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
I have a PH.D. in Business and my specialty is Operations Management and Operations Research. I have a double minor in statistics and my undergraduate degree is in Mechanical Engineering.
With the variety of business courses I can teach the only way they'll be firing me due to downsizing is if they eliminate the College of Business at the Univeristy where I teach.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
I hope my job is there, but I really don't know. If I lose it, than we click into plan B. A really mean recession and I'll just jump back into the university so that I can come out a really educated fool. I would like to study something like sustainability education.
We'll burn that bridge when we come to it...
The hot breath of the recession is beginning to be felt. It hasn't quite caught us yet, but it's coming fast now.
I have heard that the bank debacle is far worse than we know.
Bear Stearns was just the beginning.
I remember the last really serious recession. It was a real drag. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 439 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
TreeFarmer wrote:
I have a PH.D. in Business and my specialty is Operations Management and Operations Research. I have a double minor in statistics and my undergraduate degree is in Mechanical Engineering.
With the variety of business courses I can teach the only way they'll be firing me due to downsizing is if they eliminate the College of Business at the Univeristy where I teach.
I'd say as long as your College of Business advertises for students in China and India you should be OK.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
Tree Farmer that is an impressive background. You know you are inviting scorn by admitting to teaching our business leaders. Since you are here and apparently very intelligent can I ask,... how do you incorporate energy issues into a business curriculum? Do your colleagues know how you feel about peak oil? I forgot to ask if you are doomer or optimist, either way I'm sure you have some good points to make. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 1:28 am Post subject: Re: It begins
Something to add:
Over here in the chicago burbs stripmalls, storefronts, indoor malls, and basically all retail fronts are all loosing all of their businesses. The St. Charles mall built in the 90's, a high end ornate type suburban mall sits almost empty with at least 3/4 of the stores vacant.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4897 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: It begins
Was just in Madison this past week. Still looks like some building going on over on the west side of town. Traffic didn't seem all that bad for 5pm... I remember seeing a lot "for lease" signs when i was down there a few months ago. At least you've got the university there, and "Shurfine"! _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
I would say that I'm an optimist. Now, with that said, I don't pretend to guarantee that there will be some smooth transition after peak oil. Personally, and it really depends on what the backside of peak oil is like, I expect to see a transitional period of unknown turbulance.
There are so many wildcards out there that it is impossible to say what will happen. Examples of this would be developments in battery tech, solar tech, fuel cell tech...
Decent advances in the three I mentioned would get most non-commercial traffic off of oil, which of course would allow us to use remaining oil in trains, trucks, and machinery. That would really stretch out the lifespan of the remaining oil.
I guess I expect us to get through any transitional period but I'm not by any stretch of the imagination expecting a technological panacea to appear overnight. We'll all be living differently 10 years from now.
That might mean making sure you have your gorcery list with you so that when you are coming back from work you can stop at the grocery store, thus driving the absolute minimum number of miles. It might mean that your battery/solar powered car sits in the sun all day so that you can drive home after work. It might mean that if you live in the suburbs a good many miles from work that you tele-commute 3 days a week and go into the office on 2. Those 2 might be consecutive so that you can sleep in a motel or even your office and thus cut down on driving.
I'll stop rambling now. My view is that we'll get though it somehow and adapt to whatever we have. After all, our other option is to just lie down and die.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4827 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
View into the future!
Big Dummy with electric motor.
link to image
Quote:
How it works
When you want help, you turn a variable-speed throttle on the handlebars to engage the motor. The motor drives the pedals, just like the stoker of a tandem bicycle helps the captain. You cannot use the motor without pedaling along, but you can pedal normally without any added resistance, and coast whenever you let go of the throttle. As you shift gears to maintain comfortable pedal speeds, you keep the motor operating between its most powerful and most efficient speeds, for more than four times the torque, higher top speeds, and better range than similar motors driving wheels directly.
Top speed can exceed 30 MPH on level ground, and 20 MPH up modest hills, or be restricted to improve range and conform to local laws. Stokemonkey’s exceptional torque moves heavy loads off the line quickly, lets you walk your grocery-laden bike effortlessly up staircases, and enables you to haul adult passengers up grades exceeding 30% — the steepest streets in the world. Powered range is limited only by the amount of battery packs you carry, but to leave ample room for cargo and remain light enough for pleasant unassisted pedaling, Stokemonkey is generally most useful for trips up to 50 miles between recharges.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: It begins
TreeFarmer wrote:
I would say that I'm an optimist. Now, with that said, I don't pretend to guarantee that there will be some smooth transition after peak oil. Personally, and it really depends on what the backside of peak oil is like, I expect to see a transitional period of unknown turbulance.
There are so many wildcards out there that it is impossible to say what will happen. Examples of this would be developments in battery tech, solar tech, fuel cell tech...
Decent advances in the three I mentioned would get most non-commercial traffic off of oil, which of course would allow us to use remaining oil in trains, trucks, and machinery. That would really stretch out the lifespan of the remaining oil.
I guess I expect us to get through any transitional period but I'm not by any stretch of the imagination expecting a technological panacea to appear overnight. We'll all be living differently 10 years from now.
That might mean making sure you have your gorcery list with you so that when you are coming back from work you can stop at the grocery store, thus driving the absolute minimum number of miles. It might mean that your battery/solar powered car sits in the sun all day so that you can drive home after work. It might mean that if you live in the suburbs a good many miles from work that you tele-commute 3 days a week and go into the office on 2. Those 2 might be consecutive so that you can sleep in a motel or even your office and thus cut down on driving.
I'll stop rambling now. My view is that we'll get though it somehow and adapt to whatever we have. After all, our other option is to just lie down and die.
TF
No, please ramble on. Excellent, balanced observations. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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