We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:07 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
americandream wrote:
I leave my conscience at the door when I trade pal.
And your morals and your soul, obviously.
americandream wrote:
Then I step outside and do my civic duty.
With a gun in your hand just itching to kill and step over the next Iraqi that gets in the way of you and your rapidly bloating bank account.
You're not a trader, you are a traitor. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 623 Location: No man's land
Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
vampyregirl wrote:
billg wrote:
I hear the sucking sound of a capitalist parasite. You can continue sucking on the earth to your heart's desire but at some point the earth will suck YOU dry.
Well bill i'm a vampyre girl what do you expect? Anyway capitalism is the reason you have your internet service and all the modern conveniences you so enjoy. Capitalism is the reason why you will pig out at your dinner table tonight instead of digging through the garbage somewhere looking for food. So you make me laugh when you want to badmouth it
No, no, no....capitalism is destroying the ecological foundation on which it depends. It is a race car going 200 miles an hour into a granite wall.
There is another way...it's called steady-state economics, it's called being in communion with spirit and the natural world.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 799 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
Well, you can invest for the short term and/or you can invest for the long term. When the idiom of the short term takes over you often hear people quote JM Keynes, "In the long term we'll all be dead." That kind of thinking is the exact opposite of those that invested post depression and then left their money where it was for decades, living off of dividends. China could be looked at the same way. What do you want from them long term? What do you want short term? Which matters more to you?
I happen to think that TPTB in the West are setting up China to have the energy it needs, at least until they become a threat to the baseline that the West needs for heat and transport. The West has decided that there are many places in the world that can do without so that China can do with. Sure depletion will smack the whole proposal in the face, but will the world be in any kind of position to react other than to keep playing the same hollow roles? _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
vampyregirl, this thread you made is just too funny on peakoil.com. Wow, given your replies to americandream, I am not even going to try to change your state of mind.
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
Well folks. It seem to me we will all soon know how this plays out. But IMO Billg summed it up;
Quote:
No, no, no....capitalism is destroying the ecological foundation on which it depends. It is a race car going 200 miles an hour into a granite wall.
There is an older analogy of course - the goose that laid the golden egg.
Quote:
Once upon a time there lived an old woman who had a number of hens, ducks, and geese. She used to send her little daughter to the meadow every day to take care of the ducks and geese.
But she had one goose that she never allowed with the others. This one had a little house and yard of its own. It was such a wonderful goose that the old woman was afraid of losing it.
Each day this goose laid a large golden egg. The woman could hardly wait for the new day to come, she was so eager to get the golden egg.
At last she said to herself, "I will kill the goose and get the gold all at once."
But when she had killed the goose she found that it was just like all the other geese.
In her haste to become rich, she had become poor.
Moral: Greed destroys the source of good.
Oil at $100+ per barrel when even the dogs on the street are howling recession is hardly the stuff dreams are made of. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
One difference between China and Japan was this. Japan actually made better products than everyone else. Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, et al were models of efficiency, innovation, and had very high manufacturing standards. They made good stuff. Cars electronics, whatever. They took market share from the US because of the quality and price of their products.
Anything made in China today, or yesterday is shite. The make lots of shite, but it's still shite. People buy their crap because they have priced everyone else out of the market. As China develops, their cost of doing business will also increase. They won't be the slave labour capital of the world anymore, and will start importing the shite they used to make from South America, India, or Malaysia.
At the moment, they are the Wal-Mart of the world. Their business model may last for some time, but it's completely dependent on cheap energy. Petroleum is expensive, but their labour pool is not.
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:16 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
gampy wrote,
Quote:
Anything made in China today, or yesterday is shite.
When my childs Christmas present was broken coming out of the box it was the final straw for me. Unfortunately, it is not practical to have a complete made in China ban for our family but anything costing more than $10 will be sourced elsewhere if at all possible. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:10 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
gampy wrote:
One difference between China and Japan was this. Japan actually made better products than everyone else. Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, et al were models of efficiency, innovation, and had very high manufacturing standards. They made good stuff. Cars electronics, whatever. They took market share from the US because of the quality and price of their products.
Anything made in China today, or yesterday is shite. The make lots of shite, but it's still shite. People buy their crap because they have priced everyone else out of the market. As China develops, their cost of doing business will also increase. They won't be the slave labour capital of the world anymore, and will start importing the shite they used to make from South America, India, or Malaysia.
At the moment, they are the Wal-Mart of the world. Their business model may last for some time, but it's completely dependent on cheap energy. Petroleum is expensive, but their labour pool is not.
Wrong. The China stuff Walmart is buying is shite because they ordered and paid for exactly that. The China toys are full of lead because the USA toymakers ordered them that way (indirectly, but they made it clear they wanted the lower than lowest price and and nothing would be checked or tested).
But the list of precision industrial products, electronics and control products and many other items that are sold and installed into our infrastructure and national defiense is long, and it is porbably about time people let go of the 1970's thinking that everything from China is a trashy bauble.
I wonder if China pays PR agencies to promote the view their stuff is shite to delay the economic threat perception by other countries?
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
Fiddlerdave wrote:
gampy wrote:
One difference between China and Japan was this. Japan actually made better products than everyone else. Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, et al were models of efficiency, innovation, and had very high manufacturing standards. They made good stuff. Cars electronics, whatever. They took market share from the US because of the quality and price of their products.
Anything made in China today, or yesterday is shite. The make lots of shite, but it's still shite. People buy their crap because they have priced everyone else out of the market. As China develops, their cost of doing business will also increase. They won't be the slave labour capital of the world anymore, and will start importing the shite they used to make from South America, India, or Malaysia.
At the moment, they are the Wal-Mart of the world. Their business model may last for some time, but it's completely dependent on cheap energy. Petroleum is expensive, but their labour pool is not.
Wrong. The China stuff Walmart is buying is shite because they ordered and paid for exactly that. The China toys are full of lead because the USA toymakers ordered them that way (indirectly, but they made it clear they wanted the lower than lowest price and and nothing would be checked or tested).
But the list of precision industrial products, electronics and control products and many other items that are sold and installed into our infrastructure and national defiense is long, and it is porbably about time people let go of the 1970's thinking that everything from China is a trashy bauble.
I wonder if China pays PR agencies to promote the view their stuff is shite to delay the economic threat perception by other countries?
I beg to differ. Yes, Walmart certainly has a hand in encouraging the consumption of Chinese goods in North America, but China still has great difficulty making anything that is worthwhile. I worked with a guy who came from China. He use to tell me horror stories about the corruption that goes on there. Factory managers are always getting busted for selling the good materiel they get from abroad, and selling it on the black market, using shitty, recycled stuff full of lead, arsenic, gods know what.
China uses recycled raw material for just about every product they make. Ever wonder why their electronics or last about 2 weeks?
The transistors they make are made from recycled plastic with large trace amounts of iron. That is just one example. I was in a consumer electronics shop here in Canada, shopping for a computer, and I asked the guy if they sold any PC's NOT MADE IN CHINA. He laughed, and shrugged. "Nothing is NOT MADE IN CHINA", he told me. It's possible that some items are assembled in North America, but all the parts. ALL the parts, are manufactured in China. With substandard materiel.
Japan at least had a government, and social structure, that promoted good workmanship, sound business practice, and consumer protection laws.
I want to buy NOTHING manufactured in China, but it's almost impossible. It blows my mind to think about. They make EVERYTHING in your house, your office, your backyard, your kitchen. Trust me, anything made in China is suspect. The poison dogfood, the lead in toys, the DVD that blows up, nothing they make is any good.
Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
I think you need to pay attention to Matthew Simmons when he says that the energy requirement PROJECTIONS are going to be above 100bbl/day but oops, we only have 65bbl/day available.
You also need to understand that all industrialism today is based on oil and given the nature of this forum, we have peaked in our global oil supplies, which means it's all downhill from here. We are currently on the plateau. How long that plateau lasts depends entirely on how well we can conserve what is left.
Once the oil boom is well and truly over and people have to power down, the industrial age will be at an end and the economy will return to agrarianism and I hope develop a steady-state economy.
And btw, whatever sunshine there is about China being the new cash cow is very old news and based on a completely false premise of a never-ending supply of oil.
vampyregirl wrote:
It seems to me China is where Japan was back in the 1960s. One of the worlds fastest growing economies, on the way to becoming a major economic power, not quite there yet but getting there.
Some of you are older than me and may remember the big Japanese auto export boom that helped make Japan an economic superpower. Now China is building cars for export. Are they trying to mimic Japan and South Korea? I don't think it will work this time, the worlds auto market is already saturated. times have changed.
But even without an auto boom they will still become a major player, maybe aanother Japan and rock the economic boat.
Of course that makes for an exploding energy demand in China and they need to clean up there dirty polluting ways. Whoever supplies them and helps them clean up stands to make a fortune.
China is the new big market, a major cash cow for producers.
How long will it take India, Vietnam, Thailand and other growing Asian economies to catch up?
_________________ -We don't need an ownership society,
we need a 'give-a-crap' society!
------------------------
-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:06 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
evilgenius wrote:
Well, you can invest for the short term and/or you can invest for the long term. When the idiom of the short term takes over you often hear people quote JM Keynes, "In the long term we'll all be dead." That kind of thinking is the exact opposite of those that invested post depression and then left their money where it was for decades, living off of dividends. China could be looked at the same way. What do you want from them long term? What do you want short term? Which matters more to you?
I happen to think that TPTB in the West are setting up China to have the energy it needs, at least until they become a threat to the baseline that the West needs for heat and transport. The West has decided that there are many places in the world that can do without so that China can do with. Sure depletion will smack the whole proposal in the face, but will the world be in any kind of position to react other than to keep playing the same hollow roles?
Whether investing for long term or short the purpose is to stay a step ahead of the competition. That is how the business world works. Which is why China is an important investment either way
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2097 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:21 am Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
China's only real problem is one of availability of resources and that is a show stopper. Japan had the windfall of cheap oil in the '80's, China doesn't have that luxury.
I don't consider Japan to be that great of a model for success. Japan rose to the top of the heap by selling $40K class cars for $20K. It's called dumping and it's a losing strategy, just look at the Japanese economy today. Most of those "Japan miracle" companies never made any profit - ever! That's why their economy has been in the toilet since the early nineties. I could go into a long story about it, because I lived through it. I was working in a tech company in R&D in the late '80's and we bought some Japanese made competing products to see why they were kicking our ass. What we found was not higher technology, on the contrary, their products where somewhat labor intensive to build and designed around public domain technology. What we did find is a product which should be selling for $15K, selling for $5K, that's all. Some miracle. Most consumer electronics products are designed with 10 year old technology. It's always been that way. While it might seem high tech to common folk, it's old hat to people who work in cutting edge industries.
Japan started the whole "race to the bottom" paradigm in Asia which involves destroying markets abroad by selling at below production cost, which isn't much more than dumping your country's treasury on the world market. It's basically a mercantilist mindset and it's dumb and has no future because they aren't getting gold for their products, they're getting paper (dollars.) There is no real transfer of wealth, rather, Asian countries are being used by foreign power brokers in the US and EU to make things of value in exchange for tokens of dubious value. It's a great scam and I'm surprised it's gone on this long. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Red Dragon Rising
gampy wrote:
Fiddlerdave wrote:
gampy wrote:
One difference between China and Japan was this. Japan actually made better products than everyone else. Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, et al were models of efficiency, innovation, and had very high manufacturing standards. They made good stuff. Cars electronics, whatever. They took market share from the US because of the quality and price of their products.
Anything made in China today, or yesterday is shite. The make lots of shite, but it's still shite. People buy their crap because they have priced everyone else out of the market. As China develops, their cost of doing business will also increase. They won't be the slave labour capital of the world anymore, and will start importing the shite they used to make from South America, India, or Malaysia.
At the moment, they are the Wal-Mart of the world. Their business model may last for some time, but it's completely dependent on cheap energy. Petroleum is expensive, but their labour pool is not.
Wrong. The China stuff Walmart is buying is shite because they ordered and paid for exactly that. The China toys are full of lead because the USA toymakers ordered them that way (indirectly, but they made it clear they wanted the lower than lowest price and and nothing would be checked or tested).
But the list of precision industrial products, electronics and control products and many other items that are sold and installed into our infrastructure and national defiense is long, and it is porbably about time people let go of the 1970's thinking that everything from China is a trashy bauble.
I wonder if China pays PR agencies to promote the view their stuff is shite to delay the economic threat perception by other countries?
I beg to differ. Yes, Walmart certainly has a hand in encouraging the consumption of Chinese goods in North America, but China still has great difficulty making anything that is worthwhile. I worked with a guy who came from China. He use to tell me horror stories about the corruption that goes on there. Factory managers are always getting busted for selling the good materiel they get from abroad, and selling it on the black market, using shitty, recycled stuff full of lead, arsenic, gods know what.
China uses recycled raw material for just about every product they make. Ever wonder why their electronics or last about 2 weeks?
The transistors they make are made from recycled plastic with large trace amounts of iron. That is just one example. I was in a consumer electronics shop here in Canada, shopping for a computer, and I asked the guy if they sold any PC's NOT MADE IN CHINA. He laughed, and shrugged. "Nothing is NOT MADE IN CHINA", he told me. It's possible that some items are assembled in North America, but all the parts. ALL the parts, are manufactured in China. With substandard materiel.
Japan at least had a government, and social structure, that promoted good workmanship, sound business practice, and consumer protection laws.
I want to buy NOTHING manufactured in China, but it's almost impossible. It blows my mind to think about. They make EVERYTHING in your house, your office, your backyard, your kitchen. Trust me, anything made in China is suspect. The poison dogfood, the lead in toys, the DVD that blows up, nothing they make is any good.
One of my hobies is model railways / railroads. Now I've a few locomotives made by Weaver in Northumberland, Pennsylvania. I damaged a nylon gear a short while ago, needed a replacement. Sent an e-mail which was promptly replied. Ordered the $3 part by email, arrived in the UK just over a week later. THATS SERVICE.
I've also a few China-built models, they look good & run OK, (for now), but will they provide a similar service - dont think so - China models also now NOT CHEAP. BTW virtually NO models made anymore in the UK, big names all made in China, similar in USA (Bachman, Atlas etc).
So folks it's not JUST a quality issue, wait till you buy China Autos (New MG's coming to the UK soon - gawd elp uz !!!).
Gasmon _________________ Oiyl be back !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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