Economic Predictions - Help!!!!!

Pops

Wow, a great effort pup with so little to go on.

I guess the only thing I would add to such a general question is a couple of my 5 general rules -

Don't Specialize; it may be easy to tell if your income is dependent on cheap energy but it may be very hard to be certain it isn't.

And Don't be Dependant; use a prudent amount of capitol or credit to try and become less reliant on public infrastructure and energy sources.

On a personal note I cashed out and bugged out of CA several years ago and though we aren't living the life of Riley we would have been toast had we stayed.

YMMV...
Good Luck.
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Make a plan and work it:

Tyler_JC

(Sorry for sounding like a jerk earlier today, Ludi. I had a big math exam coming up and I was stressed out. Took the test, got a B or C, no longer stressed. I was mostly referring to the histrionic twenty-something-year-olds on this forum who see the sky falling at every turn).

Pops is right. Specialization can be a blessing and a curse.

If your specialty thrives, you will thrive. If your specialty disappears, your business will disappear.

If you have a broader product selection, it reduces your risk.

We need more information about what kind of business you run in order to have be able to give more detailed advice.

However, Pup55 did a great job of outlining a general strategy based off of so little information. Cool

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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."

oowolf

Go over to LATOC (Breaking News section) and read what the major financial publications are predicting. Then decide for yourself. You've been here for almost 3 1/2 years and only 3 posts; that's control!)

patience · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1121

pup55 covered all the business bases, and did it well. My own experience follows Pops, having bailed from the auto industry some years ago, and really glad that I did. IMHO, better early than late, as evidenced by our stories.

Take a look at the general business areas being impacted at the moment. Transport is hurt, trucking, and airlines, from fuel costs that will be passed on eventually, but there appears to be a shakeout going on there at this time, and volumes are slowing.

Anything financial is a gladiator pit.

Except for ethanol pressure on corn prices, farming wouldn't look as good as it does, although food, like energy, appears to have every reason to go up. That means price increases in everything, except electronics, cars, and houses. Farmland is still going up here in Indiana, but unemployment is creeping up from manufacturing cutbacks and housing factors. Retail is faltering here. It appears that the consumer quit spending around the first of this year. Farm equipment sales are up in this area, but all the wood industries, from logging to retail of cabinets, have followed housing down. From what I'm seeing, it will be coal in the stockings next Christmas, if anyone can afford it, since coal is also going up. Our electric power will go up 12% this year, and it is coal-generated. Areas that depend on fuel oil for power generation and heating will be hit hard by price increases, and the consumer will soon see gasoline go up significantly by summer. That will cut into discretionary spending again. I can't see relief coming in 2008 or 2009. In fact, I would be surprised to NOT have a major finance debacle by the 3rd qtr 2008. With an essentially lame-duck govt until Jan 2009, no help will come while they dither.

There is every reason to believe that there is no "decoupling", and Europe and Asia will follow the US down the drain this year and next, into malaise at best. Check out Nouriel Roubini's blog, and his 12 steps.

Our tiny business is forted up to the max. No debt, money on hand, supplies stocked up, and ZERO outstanding receivables. At this point I don't do even 30 day credit, and if the banks and financials keep getting worse, I'll stop accepting checks. I don't trust banks any more than a Depression survivor, because that's what I see coming, although in the form of mega-stagflation, at least at first, with the distinct possibility of crushing deflation to follow when the bankers and their cronies run out of places to hide from it, and the liquidations proceed.
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Local fix-it guy..

Buter · Coal Joined: Nov 17, 2004 Posts: 4

Thanks for all your replies - it really is helpful to hear intelligent insight - I need to absorb what has been posted and respond back with answers to all your questions.

Kind Regards,
Jeff