Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 4883 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Requesting your input...
I know I'm really asking for it by requesting input here, but I'm doing it anyway. Maybe you all can help me see aspects of this situation I'm missing.
About a month ago I was offered a sweet job. Great benefits, great people, fun job, decent salary, fairly recession-proof. The catch being we have to move from TX to OK. I accepted the job and have been working for 3 weeks already, commuting 5 hours and living in a suitcase until we can find a place to live. There are good and bad aspects to the move, which I've listed out on paper. But late yesterday afternoon we hit a snag and now I'm just torn about the whole thing.
The short version is that our bank had given us tentative pre-approval on a mortgage, firm enough that we already found and made an offer on a place, but when the underwriter went to get final approval from her boss he nixed it. I'm now 95% certain we will not be able to get a mortgage. So we will be stuck renting up there, at least for a year or two. Here are the problems I have with that:
- will be very hard to find a decent place to live where we can have our livestock (chickens and miniature goats) - there are abundant rural places close to my job for sale, but not for rent
- probably won't find a rental with a storm shelter
- can't make any improvements (energy efficiency) or do any of the "weird" stuff we want to do (unconventional outbuildings, composting toilets, rain water harvesting (requires metal roof), stuff like that) at a rental
- easier to be evicted from a rental on 30 days notice for reasons beyond our control (landlord dies, divorces, etc.) - with a mortgage we can stay as long as we make the payments
- planting an orchard at a rental is pretty pointless
- can't install my wood stove and other appliances in a rental
We own our land in TX free and clear, and the house we built there is pretty much ready to move into.
There are many social and other benefits to living in OK vs. our current location, beyond those associated with my job. If I had a crystal ball and could satisfy myself that business as usual (or a close approximation thereof) would continue for 2-3 more years, it would be a simple decision. But given what I perceive as an extremely precarious situation globally with respect to food supply, energy supply, war, and economic meltdown, it's not an easy decision. I almost feel like flipping a coin. Our physical security is much better at our current location in TX vs. renting in OK if there's a meltdown. I should also mention that if I leave the job so soon after starting it, that'd be the death of any chance at a career in my field for the rest of my life. It's not a trivial thing.
Just like the original call about the job changed everything overnight, the call yesterday from the bank suddenly changed the equation.
What do y'all think we should do? Rent in OK, hoping that things stay together for a few years, or stay in TX and homestead? Am I being a paranoid nut for worrying about collapse? Or is the chance at resuming a "normal" life, similar to my pre-red pill days, suckering me into going back to sleep? _________________ The very existence of flamethrowers proves that some time, somewhere, someone said to themselves, "You know, I want to set those people over there on fire, but I'm just not close enough to get the job done." - George Carlin
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5817 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Shanny, I think you should keep the job, which seems to be a darned good one, and rent a place for now---something as close to work as possible. Maybe just an apartment or something else well below your means.
Maybe you could rent out the Texas property until the market improves (if it ever does, of course). Either that, or auction it off and get what you can for it.
Save as much money as you can in OK, combine the savings with the proceeds from your Texas property, and ultimately you'll be able to afford an OK property, either outright or through a mortgage with a large down-payment.
I don't think we're close enough to "doom" yet for you to throw in the towel on your career or its income. Start the new life in Oklahoma and things will evolve for you there. You'll settle in, adapt, and ultimately have an even better long-term situation than you did in Texas. I think.
I am a hard-core doomer, but I think the downslope we've now entered will be relatively gentle for some years yet. One or two presidential terms, say.
This is a classic risk/benefit decision. My sense is that there is measurably more benefit than risk in committing yourself fully to the Oklahoma option. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Last edited by Heineken on Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1003 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
I'm so sorry this happened, Shanny ... would the seller be willing to work with you at all?
I know how much you wanted this place.
I don't have any input really, just wanted to say if there's any way I can be of help let me know. _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 4883 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
RonMN wrote:
What would be the possibility of you keeping your job & friday nights you drive back to TX? Mon-fri stay in a little apt. in OK?
I would be willing to do a weekly commute like that, but not 5 days a week because I wouldn't be able to spend enough time with my 4 year old son, who has enjoyed a full time mother his whole life up until now. Currently I'm home 4 days and away 3, which is manageable for all of us. I am not sure how long my employer will tolerate that, but it's worth discussing.
Thanks for your comments, please keep them coming. The food situation is probably the thing I'm most concerned about right now. I can see that snowballing quickly, and while we may not have shortages in the US (only massive inflation) it could certainly lead to wars that would impact us. Globalization has made all these things interconnected, which is why I think cascading failure is such a concern.
Ferretlover, I don't think we will be able to get a loan with any lender. It's not related to the property, either. A friend did suggest we look into owner financing, which we're doing now.
Heineken, thanks for your comments. We won't be selling the TX place until and unless we own something else free and clear. Not sure we could find a suitable tenant, but it's something to consider. The problem with renting a small place is that my husband needs room to have his home office, with enough space to be free of too much distraction (he's a writer and programmer). I agree with what you said about the future being better there - IF "doom" doesn't happen in the next 2-3 years. That's the big question for me. 2-3 years is a long time.
Thanks, RSG. If you know of anyone who's got a place in the area that might be willing to do owner financing, let us know! _________________ The very existence of flamethrowers proves that some time, somewhere, someone said to themselves, "You know, I want to set those people over there on fire, but I'm just not close enough to get the job done." - George Carlin
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Consider this a gift. Imagine what your problems getting a mortgage are going to do to the cost of real estate. This is a sure indicator that the credit market is pretty frozen, a la Argentina 2000. Be patient and just rent. It may seem completely counter intuitive, in some ways, but it is your best bet.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1351 Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Temporary setback;
1. Try other lenders
2. If there becomes no other choice but to rent, sell the livestock and rent. Raise rabbits and garden.
3. Continue your PO planning.
Is Norman OK a long term solution, or near-mid? Continued decreases in rainfall are expected for the US Southwest, so assume that will be the case and that agricultural pursuits there will decline.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3897 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
1. Find another lender
2. Find out what down payment you would need to qualify; if necessary, get a second for the remainder. Maybe like an 80-15-5 or 80-10-10 mortgage
3. If the underwriter said no, that person may have had doubts about whether you could afford the place. I would pause for a moment to think about whether this might be true (just covering all bases here)
4. Take out a mortgage on the Texas place and use the money to get into the Oklahoma place
5. As mentioned above, talk to the owner about financing (couldn't hurt) _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4160 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Shannymara wrote:
We own our land in TX free and clear, and the house we built there is pretty much ready to move into.
Stay in Texas.
I would not worry so much about illegal immigrants... _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 4883 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
BigTex wrote:
3. If the underwriter said no, that person may have had doubts about whether you could afford the place. I would pause for a moment to think about whether this might be true (just covering all bases here)
Payments are less than what we paid for rent in Austin 3-4 years ago when I had no income, and our ratios are good, so we can definitely afford it. They're leery because we're in a payment plan with the IRS. They're afraid if we default the IRS will get a lien on the house that's got priority over theirs. We can pay this off within a year or two and then will have no trouble getting a loan - ASSUMING no doom (I am generally pretty doomy). Our FICOs are already well above average, our income to expense ratios are great, but the IRS situation is a deal breaker and that's why I don't expect we can get a loan from any bank or broker.
I can't wait to hear roccman's input on this. - oh! speak of the devil, lol _________________ The very existence of flamethrowers proves that some time, somewhere, someone said to themselves, "You know, I want to set those people over there on fire, but I'm just not close enough to get the job done." - George Carlin
Last edited by Shannymara on Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5817 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Shannymara wrote:
2-3 years is a long time.
This could be an error in your thinking. I sense too much "panic" going on in you, and that's never a good basis for a decision, especially a major decision like this one.
I bet you could get a 2-BR apartment pretty cheap. One bedroom for your husband's office, one bedroom for you and your husband, and a cozy little cubby in the living room for your son.
I don't know what to say about the Texas property, then. What was your original plan regarding it when you took the Oklahoma job? The issue as I see it is that it dilutes your energy and funds and makes it harder to make the OK option actually work. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 920 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Norman has tons of rentals either apartment or homes because of the University. I would suggest renting a small place on the west side (West of the Interstate) since it has better schools for your child/children.
I would also be tempted to rent our your property in TX allowing for more income and meanwhile continue your search for property that might be more affordable or continue your search for different financing opportunities. However I think any financing will be difficult for months to come unless you have a large down payment or large net income.
If need be you can totally sell your TX property, rent a small place in Norman, then purchase the property of your choice.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
I know this is a REAL LONG SHOT...but what if you could find somebody to trade you their house (in OK) for yours (in TX) even up?
<edit> WOW...maybe it's not such a long shot after all...I just googled "HOUSE TRADE SWAP"...seems there are many sites to research. _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3897 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: Requesting your input...
Why not take a loan on the Texas place and use the funds to pay off the IRS?
Wouldn't that solve the problem? _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
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I should also mention that if I leave the job so soon after starting it, that'd be the death of any chance at a career in my field for the rest of my life. It's not a trivial thing.
