I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 10:43 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse2 wrote:
Personally, I think there can be a time when the global warming debate will go out the window when or if the lights start going out. I can easily see a crash program to get coal and nuclear plants built and on-line. However, that assumes we then have the credit as a country (dollar) to build those plants and also begs the question what will from 2010 to 2015 look like if we can't meet expected demand.
In your own dismally hopeful way you are a bit skewed here. I don't think the US will need more electricity post peak. Not to light up the shuttered used-car lot signs or to power fun park rides When the lights go out, so will demand because of economic depression. Most of our current electricity use is a flagrant waste. Turn off the office buildings and malls at night. Problem solved. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:13 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
This post is not about lights going off, but what it would cost to keep them on in South Africa
Quote:
South Africa's state power company Eskom has said electricity prices need to double in the next two years if is to deal with the current power crisis.
The submission ...came a week after Eskom resumed its programme of planned power cuts.
It said that the price rises would fund necessary infrastructure upgrades.
....
The company has blamed the problems on the government's failure to invest in electricity generation, maintenance problems at existing plants and wet weather affecting coal supplies.
Power cuts have hit consumers and industry, with mining companies having to shut down for five days in January for fear of leaving workers trapped underground.
_________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Pakistan power crisis continues.
Quote:
Power crisis puts authorities in an unenviable position
By Farhan Bokhari, Special to Gulf News
Published: April 08, 2008, 23:38
Pakistan's new minister for water and power has an unenviable task. Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, the minister responsible for tackling Pakistan's worsening electricity shortages, on Monday announced that Pakistan was facing a significant power shortage of at least 3,000 megawatts or almost 15 per cent of the demand.
Worse still, came the admission from the minister that his government will require at least three years to overcome the shortage. For now, Ashraf is eager to denounce the former regime for exacerbating the problem. "I take pain in saying that this is the opening balance given to us by the last government," Ashraf said.
And yet, the minister knows fully well that he cannot escape the inevitable fallout in the form of the public's displeasure that is bound to come, as conditions only deteriorate in the long and hot summer months. In one immediate step to deal with the continuing power shortages in the city of Karachi, which is Pakistan's largest commercial centre, the minister announced his decision to increase the supply of power to the Karachi Electricity Supply Company (KESC) from the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) - the main power provider across the country. However, the way in which this will be achieved without creating shortages elsewhere remains unclear.
There are two immediate dangers from the way the government is handling the challenge. On one hand, it is conceivable that in diverting power supply to the big cities, the government may choose to accept longer periods of electricity cuts in the rural areas. Consequently, Pakistan's vital agricultural sector and farm income will undoubtedly suffer. Ultimately, a key element in the economic structure will lose momentum.
On the other hand, Ashraf has also spoken out about the steps to be taken for conserving electricity. The minister has ruled out the possibility of the government forcing conservation measures such as imposing shorter durations for commercial markets, to save electricity.
Short-sighted approach
This is unfortunately a short-sighted approach. The new government has to adopt all possible measures to improve the supply and curtail the demand for electricity. Forcing commercial markets to conserve electricity should be has an important element in the overall power management strategy.
There is immense evidence of wastage of electricity in commercial areas. During the scorching and long summer months, an increasing number of shops in commercial districts routinely turn on their air-conditioners from early in the day, irrespective of whether there are customers or not. Such wastage when Pakistan is coping with increased power cuts is nothing short of criminal behaviour.
Some officials have taken the view that enforcing power cuts in commercial districts should also come with the provision of allowing shops and commercial organisations to run their functions with the use of power generators. This strategy has little to offer by way of comfort. Fuel used in generators also comes from oil imported into Pakistan at a time when international oil prices remain high.
It is true that Ashraf does not face any easy prospects. But equally true is the need for profoundly difficult conservation measures including some that are bound to be unpopular. However, faced with one of the toughest challenges in Pakistan's history, taking such measures is vital for the country's well-being.
The government which has been elected to office on the back of a large public mandate must demonstrate that it has the ability to take on difficult measures. Leaving the problem even partially unattended will only worsen its position during this difficult phase in history.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse2 wrote:
Pakistan power crisis continues.
Thanks for your continued dedication to this thread.
R _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Yes, it would be great if all cities in America would shut off the lights in the empty high rise offices, car lots, parking lots, etc, so there is pleanty of electric for our lights here in Las Vegas and the worlds largest light on the Luxor..
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2245 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:34 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
China expecting 10GW power shortage this year and brownouts.
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) - China's power demand this year could outpace supply by up to 10 gigawatts (GW), with temporary brownouts hitting parts of the south during the summer, the deputy head of the country's power regulator said on Tuesday.
China's power firms are building new power stations each year but coal burning generators are struggling with soaring fuel costs, an over-stretched domestic transport system and strong competition for supplies.
Wang Yeping, vice-chairman of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, told a news conference that fuel stocks at major power plants had slipped to levels that cover 12 days of generation, from 15 days in early March.
At plants in Hebei province bordering Beijing, Anhui province in the east, and the western municipality of Chongqing, stores had collapsed even further, to under 7 days of use.
"Since March, the country's thermal coal supply has again shown some tightness. Coal stocks fell again. At some power plants, thermal coal supply is already quite tight," he said.
Coal prices shot up to record highs during power and coal shortages in early February, when freak winter weather cut off roads, railways and power lines and left some plants with coal to cover just 2 days of ...
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - A power outage left wide swaths of Venezuela without electricity on Tuesday, including much of the capital.
The blackout was caused by a forest fire that overheated power lines in the central state of Guarico, the energy ministry said in a statement.
About half of Venezuela's territory was affected by the outage, which started at about 4 p.m.
Power returned to downtown Caracas after about an hour and a half, then went out again and soon returned. Officials said power also was being re-established in other parts of the country.
The outage affected 13 of the country's 24 states, Interior Minister Ramon Rodriguez Chacin said. He said Tuesday night that power was gradually being restored, saying "there's no emergency."
The blackout caused stoplights to stop functioning, aggravating traffic jams, and temporarily closed some subway stations in Caracas. Workers emerged from darkened buildings.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Interesting Oildrum article on the "coal crunch" affecting China. The article does a good job of pointing out several things, poor planning, lack of infrastructure, affects of weather, over-reliance, and how all those things combine to create a crisis.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse2 wrote:
Interesting Oildrum article on the "coal crunch" affecting China. The article does a good job of pointing out several things, poor planning, lack of infrastructure, affects of weather, over-reliance, and how all those things combine to create a crisis.
I think the root of these electricity "shortages" is because people didn't want to pay the "fair" price.
So long as a sufficiently high price is paid such that the producer is generating a profit there can be no shortage. How can there be? Any producer would be delighted to sell as much for a profit. And if demand increased there should be no problem finding the money to build a new power plant.....as long as consumers are paying a "fair" price.
BTW have you guys ever noticed that electric power companies always promote conservation but oil companies never do? You'll never see an Exxon commercial that says, "You should buy less gasoline!". That's because oil is sold at a profit while electricity is subsidized at a loss, probably by some weird government program.
strange how these countries with space programs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSLV
can't seem to provide something that was invented during the 19th century.
Or maybe I shouldn't laugh, California could be next in line.
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 11:05 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
For over 20 years, there has been lack of investment in new electrical capacity throughout most of the world. Now, we are beginning to reap the "rewards" of that lack of investment in high commodities prices due in part bc electricity is now being rationed in many of the third world countries that produce the commodities like aluminum, copper, gold et that are used to build economies.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
