Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Have you changed your driving habits to conserve on fuel ?
Yes
65%
[ 21 ]
No
34%
[ 11 ]
Total Votes : 32
Author
Message
welshgreen Coal
Joined: Apr 01, 2008 Posts: 16
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
Yes I have changed my driving habits, in the summer I virtually dont drive at all. I go to work on the bus, and cycle everywhere else. When I do drive I drive as efficiently as possible laying off on the accelerator!
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13128 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
No, it seems like we're driving a lot more lately. From one or two trips to town a week to three or four.
_________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
pup55 wrote:
As for the 2010 prediction, I am starting to like it. Every year, some number of million baby boomers gets out of the labor force. No commute, no vehicle miles.
That's assuming that most will retire. In the midst of evaporating wealth and economic turmoil, it can be assumed that most who can work, will be working. Therefore, no reduction of miles should be considered a given. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
No. We changed many habits and got rid of the SUV to pay of our debt much faster. We buy in bulk, I telecommute, and my wife works 2 miles from home. We have started a garden to help in with the cost of food. I got a 1986 Honda 450 Rebel so I'm not tied to the house, but I don't use it a lot. The fact that our driving has steadily decreased as we cut costs out of our budget coincidentally caused our monthly fuel outlay to stay roughly the same over the last three years. If we have to go out of town, we rent what we need and pay what we must without hesitation.
We'll probably buy a used mini-van or SUV next year now that we're approaching the "nothing but mortgage" debt level. AT THAT TIME we'll only use it as we must because we'll be saving to buy land at a "Plan B" location. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
Wow -- thanks for the warm welcome and thoughtful replies. So summarizing and adding a bit (actually a lot):
Forces against increasing demand:
1) Conservation seems to be counter-balancing new drivers (many sub-bullets could go here.)
2) Baby boomer retirements expected to reduce commutes
3) High gasoline / deisel prices are driving many loads to rail transport.
4) High jet fuel prices (and consumer-unfriendly countermeasures by the airlines) probably driving down air travel.
Forces driving increasing demand:
1) Recession may force baby boomers to work longer.
2) Declining dollar should cause a boom in foreign tourism in the US.
Net/net this leads me to think that growth in consumption is decellerating and the price action in refiners' stocks (VLO, TSO) seems to indicate that the market generally agrees.
Gasoline prices, however, are another issue. Prices are being driven up by:
1) Rising wealth in emerging economies driving auto/motorbike sales and more energy-intensive agriculture (which drives oil prices -- the primary cost to US refiners.)
2) Recent 8% reduction in corn planting (in favor of soy) will likely drive up ethanol prices (which will help drive up gasoline prices.)
3) A growing awareness of the role of ethanol in increasing food prices may cause a backlash against government support for this. Any withdrawal of support or counter legislation should also drive up ethanol prices, increasing gasoline demand (doesn't seem like there is any way to win here.)
Now another question for you experts: Since the US is dependent on costly boutique gasoline mixtures, would slowing US gasoline demand coupled less-favorable crack spreads (because of oil prices) cause our refiners (such as Valero and Tesoro) to cut back on US boutique fuels and actually export some gasoline overseas ? (Long term, this direction could create some real problems for us !)
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3320 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
We had already reduced our driving earlier, we are now at the point that the next cut back would be me flopping in the Twin Cities every other time I work. I'm not sure what that price level will be. The bride and I should discuss it soon. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1012 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
emersonbiggins wrote:
That's assuming that most will retire. In the midst of evaporating wealth and economic turmoil, it can be assumed that most who can work, will be working. Therefore, no reduction of miles should be considered a given.
In order for people to go to work, they will need jobs. In order for there to be lots of jobs we will need to continue our current habits of providing each other with lots of unnecessary goods and services. You know, the sorts of things people stop buying when there is a recession, and/or all their discretionary income is being consumed by energy costs.
On the other hand, our ever-wise federal government may decide to put everyone to work building more highways for the increased traffic that peak oil insures will never materialize. _________________ The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
It's great! Driving efficiently and less over the past few years allows for investment in other cost cutting measures and consequently energy saving investments which in turn, allow more investment in the same... Clearly it isn't something that can continue forever, but it is something that IME snowballs up to a point, and results in large savings. I've seen a ~30-40% reduction in fuel costs, that lead to another 40% reduction in fuel costs, which will likely lead to another 30-40% reduction with the end result being the same utility for about 10-15% of the cost when I started out. Electricity consumption is similar with more utility coming with 20% of previous use. Water use is minimized by virtue of location, so the only thing left is climate control, which will likely see similar gains w/ no investment and a stiff upper lip, or in exchange for comfort, some investment. _________________
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: Re: Declining Gasoline Demand and The Summer Driving Season
evilgenius wrote:
I actually drove around a little bit more.
Same here. Our reason is some land nearby we bought. I'm actually toying with the idea of a small pickup truck. That would be fitting, wait until some suburbanite cowboy wannabe can't afford the truck anymore and buy it cheap to use it for hauling manure like it should have been used for in the first place. The only problem is most of those trucks are big V8 manhood crutches and I'd want a little 4x4 ranger with a manual transmission.
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