We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2305 Location: Arlington, VA
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:27 am Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
Ludi wrote:
Land is still insanely, and I mean insanely, overpriced here. Just checked out a listing for a tract about six miles away from our place.
It's all relative. Houses here still sell pretty quickly. Check out this - a house on a street of a friend sold for 700,000 at the beginning of March. We don't measure land in acres here, so it is a 7200 sq ft lot- here are stats
It's a pretty nice older house. But it was bought by a builder just for the land. The house is actually getting basically torn down (I think they may keep the porch for certain zoning advantages. Here is an birds eye view
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:58 am Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
Quote:
Our local city glossy mag did a feature on home values recently. They took stats for something like a 100 different zip codes. The results were interesting.
The values were all over the place. Some neighborhoods up 10% and others down 20%. And they did it for 3 year averages as well.
We live in one of the higher priced priced areas. For us the one year change was -9% but the three change was -1%.
Don't take this the wrong way, but if you believe the glossy magazine then you are voluntarily taking the medication.
In any case, 05 was the peak of the market, and it is just not realistic to say that "some neighborhoods were up 10%".
We're in the worst recession we've had in years, and we're coming off the greatest real estate bubble in the history of the country.
Simply, with only a very few exceptions, everything is down.
If you believe some clown in a news magazine who may or may not be getting funding from realtwhores, then consider that you may not be getting unbiased info.
To put it in perspective, when we moved out of a "big east coast city" in 05 (top of the market baby! Ca-ching"), our house was at the 75% in the area for asking price. We got our offer price.
Now, 3 years later, Zillow still has our house at the price we paid for it.
But if you go to housingtracker, they show that the "asking price" of houses in that area are down a ghastly 26%.
So if you take info from Zillow, or Realtwhore Today, or a local mag with a very large interest in trying, vainly, to paint a happy picture of a horror show, then you're probably just being duped.
You want to know what your house value is compared to 05?
Try to sell it.
When you get 3 walk throughs in the first 6 months and no offers at the "1% under 05" price, you'll start to figure out that the glossy mag is just donkeyshit and you're the sheep who's sposed to eat it.
Nestled in the foothills of the Cape Breton Highlands, this secluded and extremely private, residential property is priceless in its own right (10 acre parcel to be subdivided from parent acreage--additional land is negotiable). The year-round splendour of the surrounding hillsides compliment this unique, tastefully finished yet rustic 3-bedroom abode. The main living area features open concept comfort with new wood and oil stoves on either side of the stone chimney. Yellow birch flows throughout the residence from the flooring, beautiful heartwood custom-built kitchen cabinets and vertical panelling. Impressive artwork accents the main entrance and overhead in the dining area. The wilderness is yours to enjoy through the numerous windows, large decks or endless woodlands accented with two brooks and a trout pond. The lush, landscaped grounds reveal a passion for gardening--established "organic" vegetable and fruit produce include bountiful grape vines! Over 50 species of greenhouse trees and shrubs have been thoughtfully placed. This is an extremely but delightfully private property with absolutely no neighbours, save for the native wild life, once you turn off the Cabot Trail to begin the 3.2 km commute to this residence. And...the only source of electricity is provided through an off-grid hydro system. That's right--no power bill!
(So, how do you insert photos??) _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 331 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
Thanks for starting this thread. I keep hoping that the housing bust will include land so I can swoop in for my PO safety net acrage. Within 1 hour drive from Portland, OR, you can forget it. Things have not "corrected" enough for prices to come down significantly. Everyone is still asking the same prices they did when real estate was so "hot".
I think we'll need a more severe recession to significantly bring prices down.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4025 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
I still think something will give with "rec" land. My sources tell me of a case where i guy had to reduce from mid 3000's per acre to lower 3's and that isn't doing anything. Other stuff has been dropping even into the mid 2's per acre depending on where.
Half the people who own this stuff don't even set foot on it monthly (yearly?) and the other half don't ever!
The problem is $4 gasoline. Its making people hesitate that weekend run to the "land" (to play on atv's/etc) and decide to stick around closer to home.
I've decided to get an old crappy pop up camper and tow it to WalMart parking lot and live when i can't afford the mortgage anymore. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5699 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
Frank, you make some valid points there. Nevertheless, here in Virginia I've seen no real movement in the cost of that sort of land despite the big increase in gas prices.
Last year I paid $2300/acre for 50 acres of timberland 90 minutes south of here. There was nothing else remotely affordable anywhere closer. The timber consists mostly of recently thinned 23-year-old loblolly pine, which is about 7 years away from being valuable sawtimber. There's a system of small streams. I drive down there every two weeks or so to do all sorts of work on the land. It's a mile off the hardtop road, via a deeded right-of-way across the dairy farm that sold me the land. I could still afford to drive there once or twice a month if gas went to $10/gallon, although I might have to cut back somewhere else in my life to do it.
Who knows, in 7 years the timber market might be dead because of PO and collapse. Or maybe GW-spawned fires or beetles may have destroyed the trees.
I bought the land anyway, and so far, at least, I'm glad I did. Was it a mistake? Did I pay too much? Will civilization and our laws fall apart, and the farmer barricade my right-of-way?
Time will tell. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:07 pm Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
As far as "normal" housing, friends just sold a 2-bed 2-bath near- 1000 sf condo in east Denver (Aurora, actually) for a relative who went into managed care. Purchased 6 years ago for a little over $100,000, they got one and only one looker and offer in 4 months, paid all fees, paid the buyer's 20% down payment, and after commissions netted about $42,000.
The buyer's monthly payment with taxes, insurance and the condo monthly fee is $686.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5699 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
I'm surprised that this thread hasn't attracted more participation.
The dire situation with real estate is ungraspably enormous and is still just starting to unfold. Property values are being ERASED, and with them most people's economic security.
If you own property and have been thinking of relocating to a more suitable locus to prepare for what's coming (one of the major issues discussed on PO.com), you won't be able to do so if you can't sell the place where you're living now or can get only peanuts for it. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 525 Location: northern California
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
Had lunch in town with one of our local realtors yesterday, the one who sold me this place 6 years ago. The cafe is a place where you just pick a table and end up eating with someone--nobody's bashful about pulling up a chair (on the wall is a photo of this same realtor, taken when the cafe was being remodeled, riding his horse across the room- I'm surprised the floor didn't collapse into the basement, being 130 years old), and everyone hollers back & forth between tables. Anyway, after we had gotten through most of the normal topics, I asked him how real estate was doing lately. He said that even though the word is that building is dead, real estate is dead, it's just not true. He said real estate ALWAYS comes back up. We'll see... _________________ "And the cost of a thing, it will be remembered, is the amount of life it requires to be exchanged for it, immediately, or in the long run." H.D. Thoreau
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5699 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Trying to sell your property?
We'll see, indeed. There have been long periods in the history of US real estate (and I mean decades) during which home values went nowhere. The real estate bubble of the past decade is a spectacular anomaly on the chart---a massive spike.
It all comes down to the credit machine. If they can patch the damn thing up and get it working again, we might have some sort of temporary recovery. A dead-cat bounce? _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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