Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
I believe the comments in the article below were obtained before today's bombing of an important Iraqi pipeline.
Quote:
3/27/08 Oster Dow Jones 16:30:01
March 27, 2008
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To Apr 12 Seen Dn 60,000 B/D -Tracker
LONDON, Mar 27, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Crude oil shipments from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are projected to fall slightly by 60,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to April 12, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
OPEC shipments are expected to drop to a total of 24.33 million barrels a day in the four-week period, down from 24.39 million barrels a day in the previous one-month period to March 15, Oil Movements said.
Deliveries from core OPEC producers in the Middle East are seen dropping 130,000 barrels a day to 17.43 million barrels a day in the same period.
Roy Mason, head of the consultancy, said that, overall, "nothing much is changing" and sailings were in line with seasonal tendencies.
However, he added that westbound sailings across the Atlantic remained slightly higher than usual, indicating there is "a stock of oil on the water that will eventually move onshore" to the U.S., possibly around late April or early May.
That could help reverse the current trend in U.S. crude imports, which have fallen sharply in the last two weeks.
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Might as well get the tartar sauce out, that frog is pretty well dead and cooked. The summer of our discontent has arrived. God help us. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3355 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
Might as well get the tartar sauce out, that frog is pretty well dead and cooked. The summer of our discontent has arrived. God help us.
I've got a bad cold and am worn out from a day with the kids, this is usually the time that I go to bed on my "weekends." Looking at this and other news on the wire I think I'll go work in the garage for a while.
Cur _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
God help us.
Quote:
Genesis 1:22-23
God blessed them saying, 'Be fruitful, multiply, and fill the waters of the seas and let the birds multiply upon the earth'. Evening came and morning came: the fifth day.
I think the idea of god got us into this mess... _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
Might as well get the tartar sauce out, that frog is pretty well dead and cooked. The summer of our discontent has arrived. God help us.
For those doubting Thomases, we now have finished six weeks of statistics where expected OPEC shipments are down 500,000 bpd from February's peak. So no need to change the thread title.
The prognosis for an increased amount of OPEC supplies leaving the Mideast after mid-April: not good.
Quote:
Oil prices surge on sabotage near Basra, bottleneck at South Korean refinery
Compiled by Daily Star staff
Friday, March 28, 2008
In Iraq, officials said that efforts were under way to get shipments back to normal. It is the first time since 2004 that the southern supply route has been disrupted.
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
This from Bloomberg this morning:
Quote:
OPEC Oil Supply Rises in March, PetroLogistics Says (Update2)
By Grant Smith
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC's crude-oil supply has probably increased by 100,000 barrels a day, or 0.3 percent, in March, according to preliminary estimates from PetroLogistics Ltd.
The 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have supplied 32.9 million barrels a day this month, up from 32.8 million a day in February, data from the Geneva-based tanker-tracking service showed.
Iranian output accounted for most of the gain, rising to 4.05 million barrels a day from 3.92 million a day, the consultant said. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer.
``Iran had rather a difficult time in February due to weather-related loading delays, and this month they're bringing it back up again,'' Conrad Gerber, founder of PetroLogistics, said in a telephone interview from Geneva.
Iraqi exports from the southern port of Basra have dropped by about 70,000 barrels a day this month to 1.65 million barrels a day because of interruptions including an explosion on the Zubair-1 pipeline yesterday, Gerber said. The two main pipelines serving the Basra oil terminal were unaffected by the blast, an Iraqi official said.
PetroLogistics estimates the quantity of crude supplied to the market, including to consumers in the producing countries themselves, rather than well-head output.
OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, has no plans to increase output even if ministers meet informally next month, group President Chakib Khelil said, according to Algeria's state-run news service APS.
Analysts and banks including Societe Generale SA and London's Centre for Global Energy Studies said before OPEC's last gathering on March 5 that the group would probably make unofficial production cuts in the coming quarter to avert a supply glut.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Thanks rocdoc123.
Please note that Petrologistics is talking about total production and Oil Movements about actual export shipments. Being that Iran doesn't ship any oil to the US, I still don't expect any increase in OPEC exports to the US in April over March.
Quote:
3/28/08 Oster Dow Jones 16:26:37
March 28, 2008
DJ UPDATE:OPEC Mar Output Seen +0.1M B/D On Iran - Petrologistics
LONDON, Mar 28, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- (Adds details and analyst comments)
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump around 100,000 barrels a day more in March than in February on increased production from Iran, tanker tracker Petrologistics said Friday.
Output from all 13 OPEC members is expected to average 32.9 million barrels a day, up from 32.8 million barrels a day last month, Geneva-based Petrologistics said in its preliminary forecast.
Output from OPEC not including Iraq, which isn't part of the group's output allocation system, is seen averaging 30.6 million barrels a day this month, up from 30.5 million barrels a day in February.
In both sets of data, the group's current production is well above OPEC's 12 quota-bound members target of 29.67 million barrels a day.
"A good part of this (increase) is Iran. They had some loading delays, some bad weather," said Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber.
"What's interesting is that Iran is one of the (price) hawks, as we know, and yet it continues pumping oil the way that it is, which could pressure prices," Gerber said.
Iran, the group's second largest producer, is seen pumping at 4.05 million barrels a day this month, up from 3.92 million barrels a day in February, or 130,000 barrels a day higher on average.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
There appears to be a consensus, as indicted in an article in Bloomberg today (not posted here) that OPEC production dropped about 100,000 bpd in March. Again production is not the same as shipments but Lloyd’s also says that shipments dropped about 100,000 bpd. Lloyd’s report is much more positive than the Oil Movements report posted further up, but part of that may be due to some difference in the methodology.
Quote:
OPEC exports down 100,000 bpd 4 wks to Mar 23
Mon 7 Apr 2008, 10:35 GMT
LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - OPEC seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to March 23, mostly on slippage from Gulf producers, data released by Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit showed on Monday.
LMIU said shipments from 11 OPEC producers, including Iraq, fell to an average of 22.104 million bpd in the peroid, versus 22.201 in the previous four weeks to Feb. 25.
"Exports are trending downwards, with Gulf shipments clearly falling in the period. Volumes are cyclically lower," an LMIU analyst said.
He said that refinery maintenance in the first and early into the second quarter was likely affecting flows as demand slows.
The analyst said lower output in Nigeria and Venzuela in March, could also be responsible for the turndown, a trend confirmed by other industry sources and analysts.
Last week a Reuters survey of 12 OPEC members showed production fell slightly in March because of lower Nigerian and Venezuelan output as maintenance at oil installations curbed supply.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Ok Last Viking - what do you say to this, it looks like your comments are the most useless of all. You are the one who brought up the IEA, and this report is from the IEA.
It is reported that OPEC production fell from Janaury to March fell by 500,000 bpd, which is exactly what I said in my first post.
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: April 12 2008 02:52 | Last updated: April 12 2008 02:52
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has quietly begun to reduce its oil production despite calls from the US and Europe for the group to pump more so that prices fall.
Output from the core countries of the 13-member cartel last month fell to 27.3m barrels a day, down from the 27.6m b/d they produced in February and 27.8m b/d in January, the International Energy Agency, the western countries’ watchdog, said on Friday in its monthly report.
Production from Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest member, dropped marginally from January and was the same as February at 9.2m b/d.
The cuts come despite assurances from Opec ministers that they were keeping their output steady.
Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s powerful energy minister, said this week: “I am not going to pull back. I’m not going to dump crude on the market.”
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
DantesPeak wrote:
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Ok Last Viking - what do you say to this, it looks like your comments are the most useless of all.
EIA reported this week that its July 2006 All Liquids monthly record was broke in Oct/2007. Its stats go on to illustrate that a record was again set in Dec. Again in January. Again in February. And a new record was set in March. A new quarterly record was set in 2007Q4. That was broke in 2008Q1. An annual record was set in 2007.
That's eight STEO records reported in the same few weeks that u and the other McPeaksters have seen nothing but gloom.
It's been reported since mid-Summer that 2008Q2 will demonstrate the normal seasonal softness. After that, we will see all time record -setting in Saudi Arabia over the subsequent three quarters.
It must suck big time for u that after three years of questing for the elusive Decline, it is being reported in another thread today that only one of the 23 production forecasts published in the last 36 months foresees a peak prior to 2010.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
LastViking wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Ok Last Viking - what do you say to this, it looks like your comments are the most useless of all.
EIA reported this week that its July 2006 All Liquids monthly record was broke in Oct/2007. Its stats go on to illustrate that a record was again set in Dec. Again in January. Again in February. And a new record was set in March. A new quarterly record was set in 2007Q4. That was broke in 2008Q1. An annual record was set in 2007.
That's eight STEO records reported in the same few weeks that u and the other McPeaksters have seen nothing but gloom.
It's been reported since mid-Summer that 2008Q2 will demonstrate the normal seasonal softness. After that, we will see all time record -setting in Saudi Arabia over the subsequent three quarters.
It must suck big time for u that after three years of questing for the elusive Decline, it is being reported in another thread today that only one of the 23 production forecasts published in the last 36 months foresees a peak prior to 2010.
This thread is not about all liquids, and this web site is not called "Peak All Liquids". All liquids double counts the conversion of oil to biofuels, which even ordinary people seem to understand.
Funny how you won't even address the fact I was absolutely right on the subject of this thread - and you were totally wrong.
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
This thread is not about all liquids, and this web site is not called "Peak All Liquids". All liquids double counts the conversion of oil to biofuels, which even ordinary people seem to understand.
Besides the double counting problem, which is significant, much of what gets dumped into “All Liquids” as an extra is ultimately used as a feed stock, not as an energy source. Petroleum as a feed stock is not the planet’s problem, we have 4.5 trillion barrels of “feed stock”. Using “All Liquids” when discussing Peak Oil is either disingenuous, or shows an extreme level of ignorance concerning the subject.
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
LastViking wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Ok Last Viking - what do you say to this, it looks like your comments are the most useless of all.
EIA reported this week that its July 2006 All Liquids monthly record was broke in Oct/2007. Its stats go on to illustrate that a record was again set in Dec. Again in January. Again in February. And a new record was set in March. A new quarterly record was set in 2007Q4. That was broke in 2008Q1. An annual record was set in 2007.
That's eight STEO records reported in the same few weeks that u and the other McPeaksters have seen nothing but gloom.
It's been reported since mid-Summer that 2008Q2 will demonstrate the normal seasonal softness. After that, we will see all time record -setting in Saudi Arabia over the subsequent three quarters.
It must suck big time for u that after three years of questing for the elusive Decline, it is being reported in another thread today that only one of the 23 production forecasts published in the last 36 months foresees a peak prior to 2010.
The graph shows a clear effort to produce more than they can comfortably do so, just like they did in the 70's and 80's and probably therefore shut in permanently a large amount of oil from abusing their fields.
It's all moot at this point gentlemen. The quick slide to the bottom is approaching. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Guys don't worry about the shills. It took me a bit to see why we suddenly got hit with these guys again. Listen, we cannot spend all of our time fighting the dwindling bank accounts of jaded oil industry employees. They are trying to keep the lid on something that will leave many of them on the short end of a long rope.
The best course of action for the industry is to come clean immediately. Stop harassing folks like Matt Simmons who has the courage to tell it like it is. You are only making things worse for yourself in the long run.
The oil majors are in liquidation, only this liquidation is not as 'efficienct' as the one we witnessed in Oz, it will be long slow and painful, made the worse by the pride of the wealthy who think they should rule the earth. What arrogance.
Keep eating that American pie while the masses die! Every calorie of veil you consume takes 10,000 calories out of the mouths of babes. Man, what a boom! How do I get a job in oil? _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Thanks Gandalf_the_White.
After a minor recovery in April, OPEC shipments appear to be sliding back in early May to March levels - per Oil Movements:
Quote:
4/24/08 Oster Dow Jones 15:30:02
April 24, 2008
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To May 10 Seen Up 180,000 B/D -Tracker
LONDON, Apr 24, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Crude oil shipments from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are projected to rise by a 180,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to May 10, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
OPEC shipments are expected to total 24.48 million barrels a day in the four-week period, up from 24.30 million barrels a day in the previous four-week period to Apr. 12, Oil Movements said.
Deliveries from core OPEC producers in the Middle East are seen rising by 150,000 barrels a day to 17.62 million barrels a day in the four-week period to May 10.
Week-on-week comparisons, however, show that shipments may be slowing down. Sailings are set to drop 90,000 barrels a day in the one-week period to May 10.
If that trend continues, it could mean that crude oil demand may be easing slightly after a period of strengthening throughout April, said Roy Mason, head of the consultancy.
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