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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
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Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
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vision-master
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Joined: May 18, 2006
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Location: Minneapolis, MN

PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

shortonoil wrote:
vision-master said:

Quote:
So, you won't need a degree for that assistant manager position at Mac & Dons now?


If there is 12,436 people applying for the job, the guy with a Ph.D. is going to get it!


Yeah, right. Razz
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patience
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Maybe if college becomes much less affordale for the masses, a degree will come to mean as much as it did 40 or 50 years ago. There are too many kids in college taking remedial courses the first 2 years, just to get up to speed, and too many BA holders flipping burgers in my town.
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smallpoxgirl
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:34 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I am always amazed by the number of psychology majors I run into who have no interest in being psychologists. I can't figure out why spend four years studying a field that they have no interest in pursuing as a career. Seems to be kinda what you said. "If I have a college degree, I'll be first in line for shift manager at McDonalds." Good luck paying back those student loans on $7/hr.
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I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
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auscanman
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I disagree with those who think that colleges and universities will just say 'ah shucks' and shrivel away if student enrollment starts to drop due to students being unable to afford tuition. All of these institutes have made major investments in infrastructure, and need students there to pay the creditors and bills, not to mention how badly it would reflect on a university to be unable to fill all available spaces with incoming students. I think we'll see tuition being slashed within the next 2 years, to keep student numbers stable, as opposed to seeing decreases in enrollment.

Rather than layoff professors universities and colleges are more likely to demand that these profs take pay cuts if they wish to remain. If not, replacements can be found. Most profs I know wouldn't stand a chance out in the real world. They just aren't wired for conventional working life, so most would be willing to take a pay cut, rather than compete with Joe Sixpack for whatever work is available.

Enrollment may drop eventually, as the changed nature of the world really hits home with teenagers and post-secondary education loses the lustre it had, but I think it will be more than 5 years, and probably closer to 10 before this happens.
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TreeFarmer
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Guys I'm a professor and there is one thing that has been going on at colleges and universities that does not get much press.

The ratio of people on the payroll who teach classes to people on the payroll who don't teach classes has been steadily going down. Almost all schools have way too many people on the payroll doing things that have been deemed "necessary" but are mainly just fluff.

TF
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Iaato
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Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.

PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Somebody finally answered my question about what happens with FDIC insurance when a bunch of banks go belly up. This remains my most solid argument for why TPTB are being forced to be committed to inflation and hyperinflation when it becomes necessary.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4335.html

Quote:
"If one medium-large bank collapse could wipe out the FDIC by a factor of nearly 8, what do you suppose would happen if there were multiple, simultaneous bank failures? At this point, my guess would be that Congress would be sorely tempted to borrow additional funds to remedy the situation, but I worry that hardship and losses might result while the laws were amended and sufficient funding avenues identified. So how many bank failures could the FDIC endure? The data suggests slightly fewer than one big one. "

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Armageddon
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies


The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are unleashing a widening wave of bankruptcies in American retailing, prompting thousands of store closings that are expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country.

Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.

But the troubles are quickly spreading to bigger national companies, like Linens ‘n Things, the bedding and furniture retailer with 500 stores in 47 states. It may file for bankruptcy as early as this week, according to people briefed on the matter.

Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117 and the jeweler Zales will close 100.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/business/15retail.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=business&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
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Denny
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Armageddon wrote:
Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies

Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117 and the jeweler Zales will close 100.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/business/15retail.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=business&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin


We could use a lot less stores. It seems when I travel in the U.S. or stay here at home in Canada, all the malls look the same. We need to create more openings in the malls for some fresh ideas. Also, from what I see, the efficiency in these stores is low. Concentrating business at less outlets will help that. We also have too many people working in stores at low wages who could be out doing some productive work. Not that we do not need some stores, but we have too many, and its not that the store staff are useless people, but just think how much more value they could be to the economy doing some primary industrial work.

I also think stores should go back to closing on Sundays. The extra operating costs wind up in the price tags. And, staff should be free on Sunday to do family and church things.

Also, less stores = less shoppers and then it wil be easier to get a parking spot.
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:22 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TreeFarmer wrote:
Guys I'm a professor and there is one thing that has been going on at colleges and universities that does not get much press.

The ratio of people on the payroll who teach classes to people on the payroll who don't teach classes has been steadily going down. Almost all schools have way too many people on the payroll doing things that have been deemed "necessary" but are mainly just fluff.

TF

About 12 years ago I was frequently visiting Chemistry Dept of one of UK universities (UMIST).
That was because my employer was involved in cooperation with this university.
So I had to deal with some physical chemistry personnel responsible of NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance).
Whenever I entered particular lab, I have seen 2 PhD-s in their 40-ties playing pinball (game dispatched with Windows).
As long as I remember, I have never seen one of these peoples doing anything else but second one could be sometimes seen fiddling with superconducting magnet, usually filling liquid nitrogen to secondary cooling system (primary runs on helium) or fiddling with magnetic field synchronization.

Professor responsible of this lab had his own separate room.
When I was entering this room, it was about 50% of chance to see him doing something, what appeared to be useful - he was reading or typing or shuffling some papers flooding his desk and another 50% of chance was to see him playing some cards game on his computer. Once or twice he was playing chess, not cards.

Such a nice job... Very Happy

To be fair on this university I must admit that 2 or 3 other peoples with whom I was dealing were working decisively harder than those described above.
They had also a very hard working glassblower, who was also quite an old and nice guy.
I liked to observe him working, so I was often staying in his room for an hour or so, particularly when I have completed all business matters with physical chemistry staff and yet I was not in rush to return to my employer. Very Happy
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dorlomin
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 4:13 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The investment of human and financial capital into uneeded or underperforming university education over the past ten to fifteen years has been a tale of squander and foolishness.

Universities have become an economic device to keep youth unemployment figures down and to generate uneeded service sector consumption. You have to loan large amounts of cash to consume and education you often should not need.

The money would have been far far better spent on primary school education where you can still make a difference to the child. That and ensuring a good standard of maths and science in high school.

Instead we churn out media tech "BSc's" to man call centers.
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IslandCrow
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Joined: Sep 12, 2005
Posts: 825
Location: Finland

PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 6:15 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Housing gloom worst in 30 years (UK)

Quote:
Confidence in the UK housing market fell in March to its lowest point in 30 years, according to a closely watched survey of property surveyors.

The government's own house price figures confirmed a fall in prices in February by 1.6%.


1.6% in one month * 12 months = 19,20% 'correction' within a year. No wonder they are feeling gloomy, and the UK is still very near the top of the roller-coaster of property prices.
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:19 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Dear Users,

Please use the link command so that we don’t have to read the right hand part of a post on our right hand wall!
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Fredrik
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Location: Finland

PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:33 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

auscanman wrote:
Rather than layoff professors universities and colleges are more likely to demand that these profs take pay cuts if they wish to remain. If not, replacements can be found.


I think this might become a standard procedure at a lot of places which won't go bankrupt immediately, but need to minimize expenses. It'll suck, but it will definitely beat unemployment with next to no benefits. Goodbye, trade unions...
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"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola


Last edited by Fredrik on Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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vision-master
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Location: Minneapolis, MN

PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:45 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Fredrik wrote:
auscanman wrote:
Rather than layoff professors universities and colleges are more likely to demand that these profs take pay cuts if they wish to remain. If not, replacements can be found.


I think this might become a standard procedure at a lot of places which won't go bankrupt immediately, but need to minimize expenses... It'll suck, but it will definitely beat unemployment with next to no welfare.


Can any of you imagine what the costs are to operate and maintain these "palaces" of higher edjamacation.
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Fredrik
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:21 am    Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

vision-master wrote:
Can any of you imagine what the costs are to operate and maintain these "palaces" of higher edjamacation.


When the energy crisis hits, everything will have to become simpler, cheaper, less energy intensive... But the government will have a great interest in not letting the unemployment rate soar to over 40-50%, that would end up in chaos. So I think TPTB will have to do away with minimum wage, and workers and professionals will have to do away with expecting a "decent" salary.
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"A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola


Last edited by Fredrik on Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:25 am; edited 1 time in total
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