Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:23 am Post subject: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
With the price of oil setting new highs, and the news that Russia might have actually peaked (they actually admitted this...gasp!), I'd to pose a question that's been in my head for quite some time. Exactly how much oil is locked away in the current "no drilling" zones of the eastern GOM and the continental shelf of the Eastern Seaboard of the US, as well as anything we can get our hands on in Alaska? And how high does the price of oil need to go before the President issues an emergency order to open up drilling in these areas?
All I seem to hear that these no-drill zones will never be tapped for their oil no matter what, but I happen to disagree. What's going to happen when gasoline is $12 a gallon and the trucks are no longer delivering food to grocery stores as oil imports drop off a cliff? If the oil is there, in our own backyards, aren't we going to break open the piggy back and extract what we can? And how long would it take to reach maximum productions from these prohibited areas? With Peak Oil becoming more of a household term day by day, I just don't understand why there isn't more of an outcry to start poking holes everywhere there might be oil. Of course there's the environmental side, but people do tend to care about being able to use their cars and eating food more than the risk of oil spills around Florida and North Carolina...and the day is rapidly drawing near that we're going to be faced with a very stark choice.
Answers, anyone? _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
The stuff is off limits because it's not economical enough for oil
companies to secure rights. And mostly we are talking about finds that
would not actually do much to provide large volumes of oil for the US.
So it's mostly political rhetoric. Like damming up the grand canyon, it
won't help our power situation much.
I'm sure everything that can be opened up, will be. But it ain't going to
do a bit of good.
Quote:
TOP 10 OIL INDUSTRY MYTHS
2. Are estimated oil supplies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
expected to significantly change our long term energy prospects?
No. It is estimated that the coastal plain of the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge contains no more than a six month supply of oil at
our current consumption rates.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:55 am Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
Byron100 wrote:
how high does the price of oil need to go before the President issues an emergency order to open up drilling in these areas?
Do you mean on TV or in real life?
In real life the president can't just issue an emergency order and bypass the laws passed by Congress. Those areas are off-limits because Congress passed laws to that effect. Those laws were passed by the Congress in response to pressure from environmental groups. The democrats control Congress, and they are the party that favors locking up all these lands, limiting oil drilling, and placing more taxes on oil companies.
We may drill in some areas now off limits, but first we'd have to replace the democrats in Congress with people who aren't in the pocket of the radical environmentalists.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
TreeFarmer wrote:
A number of exploratory wells were drilled off of the southeast coast back in the 1980's. What was or was not found was not publicized.
TF
I'd love for someone to release those results...just so we know how much oil is there.
Also, if it wasn't cost-effective to secure rights in these areas when oil was $20 a barrel, I would think that that would be a bit different with oil costing $120 a barrel...or $200 a barrel.
But like someone once told me, it's better for us to drain the Middle East dry of their oil before we go about drilling for the last dregs of our own oil, when we *really* need it. I'm just curious as to exactly when this point will be breached, and how this process would occur. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
ANWR, or ANWAR as I see it often spelled (conflating it with Ghawar I guess!) has only had the one test well drilled, the KIC - whose details are still confidential. It's only the 1002 area that has potential for oil/gas too, covering only 8% of ANWR's area. People don't bring up this fact though. Perhaps this summer we'll see calls for a few more test wells at least, if gas prices go high enough.
Simmons says we're hard up for deep water drilling rigs to exploit the continental shelf even if we wanted to - only four more built this year, I seem to recall him describing the ones we have as "rusty," too. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
TheDude wrote:
ANWR, or ANWAR as I see it often spelled (conflating it with Ghawar I guess!) has only had the one test well drilled, the KIC - whose details are still confidential. It's only the 1002 area that has potential for oil/gas too, covering only 8% of ANWR's area. People don't bring up this fact though. Perhaps this summer we'll see calls for a few more test wells at least, if gas prices go high enough.
Nope.
Congress closed ANWR to all exploration 20+ years ago.
Clinton vetoed legislation the congress passed to open it up in the 90s, and the Senate dems have since filibustered to death all the Republican attempts to open it up since Bush became president in 2001.
The dems will win additional seats in Congress in this election cycle and Obama, Clinton and McCain ALL say they oppose opening ANWR, so its very unlikely anything will happen to allow drilling or even leasing of land there for another 5-10 years.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3918 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
Plantagenet wrote:
TexasEx2006 wrote:
ANWR is off limits due to the fact that it is being held as collateral on on debts to the FEDs stakeholders
Nope.
Its off limits because environmentalists (and their supporters in Congress) don't want the oil industry to be allowed into ANWR.
It may well be leased and drilled eventually, but it isn't likely to be opened up while the dems control Congress.
Au Contrair!!! When the Dems decide they will get more pollitical support from angry voters who want ANWR drilled than they get from Greenpeace and the Sierra Club they will throw the greens overboard and order drilling poste haste! _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
Byron100 wrote:
If the oil is there, in our own backyards, aren't we going to break open the piggy back and extract what we can? And how long would it take to reach maximum productions from these prohibited areas?
Won't matter much. It's all peanuts.
Take ANWR:
95% Probability 5.7 BBO = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 BBO = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 BBO = 1.9 mbpd
Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.
From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.
7-12 years to explore and develop
2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil
By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.
In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.
30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph
EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel
Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.
.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand
Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported
Quote:
With Peak Oil becoming more of a household term day by day, I just don't understand why there isn't more of an outcry to start poking holes everywhere there might be oil.
Like we aren't?
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US
MonteQuest wrote:
Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day
Assuming all the assumptions you make are correct, 43 minutes a day is about 3% of all US oil consumption.
If the US can meet 3% of our oil needs by developing just one new oil field, and at the same time create good high paying jobs for Americans and generate billions of dollars for the federal treasury through lease sales and subsequent taxes, then why not do it?
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