We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:56 am Post subject: We drive, they starve
Quote:
We drive, they starve. The mass diversion of the North American grain harvest into ethanol plants for fuel is reaching its political and moral limits.
"The reality is that people are dying already," said Jacques Diouf, of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). "Naturally people won't be sitting dying of starvation, they will react," he said.
The UN says it takes 232kg of corn to fill a 50-litre car tank with ethanol. That is enough to feed a child for a year. Last week, the UN predicted "massacres" unless the biofuel policy is halted.
We are all part of this drama whether we fill up with petrol or ethanol. The substitution effect across global markets makes the two morally identical.
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Mr Diouf says world grain stocks have fallen to a quarter-century low of 5m tonnes, rations for eight to 12 weeks. America - the world's food superpower - will divert 18pc of its grain output for ethanol this year, chiefly to break dependency on oil imports. It has a 45pc biofuel target for corn by 2015.
Quote:
"The world food situation is very serious: we have seen riots in Egypt, Cameroon, Haiti and Burkina Faso," said Mr Diouf. "There is a risk that this unrest will spread in countries where 50pc to 60pc of income goes to food," he said.
Haiti's government fell over the weekend following rice and bean riots. Five died.
The global food bill has risen 57pc in the last year. Soaring freight rates make it worse. The cost of food "on the table" has jumped by 74pc in poor countries that rely on imports, according to the FAO.
Roughly 100m people are tipping over the survival line. The import ratio for grains is: Eritrea (88pc), Sierra Leone (85pc), Niger (81pc), Liberia (75pc), Botswana (72pc), Haiti (67pc), and Bangladesh (65pc).
This Malthusian crunch has been building for a long time. We are adding 73m mouths a year. The global population will grow from 6.5bn to 9.5bn before peaking near mid-century.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 10785 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
centralstump wrote:
Ludi wrote:
centralstump wrote:
I own farm land.
Are you a farmer, or are you just a land owner?
Land owner. Not gonna let me take passive losses, Ludi?
Nope sorry, "Land owner" does not equal "farmer" to me. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Ludi wrote:
centralstump wrote:
Ludi wrote:
centralstump wrote:
I own farm land.
Are you a farmer, or are you just a land owner?
Land owner. Not gonna let me take passive losses, Ludi?
Nope sorry, "Land owner" does not equal "farmer" to me.
In the spare time after my job at an Erosion Control Company, I make food. I don't really care if you want me on a tractor. I am not an evil megacorporation. I am a land owner paying someone to do the VERY COMPLEX job of taking a seed and nuturing it into food.
Also, I have not raised rent on my renters that are bringing home windfall profits off of the land.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 10785 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
centralstump wrote:
So lose the holier than thou.
Huh?
How is saying I don't think a land owner is a farmer is being "holier than thou"?
You seem a little sensitive about something!
Do you think I'm a farmer, or something?
<<<<<< pays farmers also, by buying food. Whoopty do! _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Not true. There is plenty of food in the Western world and populations are dropping off rapidly.
It's the poor people who barely survive that produce large numbers of children. These children will then barely survive and produce large numbers of children of their own. Eventually they will overwhelm their food production and dieoff/lose the ability to reproduce.
Food availability is a requirement for population growth. But population growth is not a function of food availability.
We consume 1/6 more calories than we need to in the USA. Does that mean our native population is exploding?
His speech is also nonsensical because it assumes that food is evenly distributed. In fact, a small decrease in food availability DOES lead to starvation because the people already on the cliff (Haiti, Sudan, etc.) are also the ones most easily pushed over the edge. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Last edited by Tyler_JC on Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
Human Carrying Capacity Is Determined by Food Availability
Journal Population & Environment
Russell Hopfenberg1
(1) Duke University, USA
Abstract Simple mathematical models have illustrated the relationship between human carrying capacity and population growth. In this study, food supply is proposed as the variable which best accounts for the human carrying capacity. The logistic equation, using food supply data as a variable carrying capacity, yields population estimates which are in accord with actual population numbers. That food supply data adequately fits the logistic model of human population dynamics provides evidence that, consistent with ecological notions typically applied only to nonhuman species, human population increases are a function of increased food availability.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 10785 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
centralstump wrote:
[
The fact that you don't want to hear that farmers make money doesn't make it false.
What? Where are you getting this? I didn't say anything of the kind.
You seem upset about something, but I don't know what it is... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Ludi wrote:
That food supply data adequately fits the logistic model of human population dynamics provides evidence that, consistent with ecological notions typically applied only to nonhuman species, human population increases are a function of increased food availability.
Population increases tend to be, but stabilization and decline aren't. That is to say, population increases tend to be based on food availability, but population does not always increase in the presence of increased food availability. _________________
pstarr wrote:
I regularly call on my "Mother" and her ample bosom
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 10785 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
yesplease wrote:
population does not always increase in the presence of increased food availability.
So far, on the planet, we have seen yearly increases in food availability, and yearly increases in world population.
Agreed, it is not a simple situation. But I think the idea of the "Food Race" is valid, because we as a society are always worrying about "feeding the growing population" and trying to produce more and more each year. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
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