How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Ludi wrote:
yesplease wrote:
population does not always increase in the presence of increased food availability.
So far, on the planet, we have seen yearly increases in food availability, and yearly increases in world population.
On average, perhaps. But locally it's a different story. The wealthier countries tend to see population growth by the natives (~3rd generatio onward) below the replacement rate, and in some cases, population growth is only sustained by immigration rates and the associated births.
People in poor nations tend to have many children because the death rates are correspondingly higher. As other nations step in and provide health care and food, this tends result in significant growth, since the death rate declines precipitously, but everything else stays the same. Even if the nation is prosperous it still takes a few generations for the decline in birth rate to match the decline in death rate.
IMO, our population "explosion" is simply a function of the wealth gap, the western idea of charity, and time. Besides, how are we going to win our wars without endless human supplies to throw at the enemy? _________________
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:11 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Oh, and we can't forget churches discouraging birth control in the regions where population growth is greatest. Hmmm... We'll spend millions feeding them, but it would be wrong to spend hundreds of thousands on birth control in order to save millions more in food. _________________
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11857 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
yesplease wrote:
the western idea of charity,
It's a function of western charities trying to win the food race. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11857 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
yesplease wrote:
Oh, and we can't forget churches discouraging birth control in the regions where population growth is greatest. Hmmm... We'll spend millions feeding them, but it would be wrong to spend hundreds of thousands on birth control in order to save millions more in food.
Yes, for hundreds of years European powers have discouraged birth control. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Pops wrote:
An offshoot of what stump said is that a bunch of money looking for a home after the RE collapse is starting to invest in farmland. I can't remember the number I heard on Ag Day (I was snoozing) but there is a real runup going on in the cornbelt.
Personally I think it is great that there is a big infusion of cash in small towns in those areas, I'm not sure how it will play out over the long run but just like the ex-urbanites contribution to small town infrastructure this is a good thing going forward in the sense it might help out if there is ever to be a resurgence of local agriculture.
One can hope. Meanwhile, the giant farms keep on getting more gigantic, right? _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
I think the idea of a "Food Race" is valid in some cases, due to confounding social factors and human nature, but as a general rule it isn't valid since human nature does change and not all populations grow in response to excess food. _________________
Not true. There is plenty of food in the Western world and populations are dropping off rapidly.
Do North and South America qualify as part of the Western world? Maybe even the bulk of the Western world?
Are the populations of the nations of North and South America "dropping off rapidly"?
How about Africa? Is its population "dropping off rapidly"?
Europe is ALREADY bursting at the seams with people. Very very high, unsustainable densities (doing plenty of damage although much of it is disguised or displaced). Also, educational and economic levels there are unusually high. So naturally the intrinsic growth rate there has slowed or even slightly reversed. But illegal immigration will inevitably overwhelm those countries. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Heineken wrote:
Europe is ALREADY bursting at the seams with people. Very very high, unsustainable densities (doing plenty of damage although much of it is disguised or displaced).
Would you say they are more unsustainable than the US?
Heineken wrote:
Also, educational and economic levels there are unusually high. So naturally the intrinsic growth rate there has slowed or even slightly reversed. But illegal immigration will inevitably overwhelm those countries.
It may or may not. It hasn't so far. _________________
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Pops wrote:
An offshoot of what stump said is that a bunch of money looking for a home after the RE collapse is starting to invest in farmland. I can't remember the number I heard on Ag Day (I was snoozing) but there is a real runup going on in the cornbelt.
Personally I think it is great that there is a big infusion of cash in small towns in those areas, I'm not sure how it will play out over the long run but just like the ex-urbanites contribution to small town infrastructure this is a good thing going forward in the sense it might help out if there is ever to be a resurgence of local agriculture.
I've noticed it too. My hometown in particular has a high school that has been going downhill for 20-30 years. They just got a school bond passed. That made my day.
Good post. I never thought of the "back to the land" implications that a "gutted" small town america presents.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Heineken wrote:
Pops wrote:
An offshoot of what stump said is that a bunch of money looking for a home after the RE collapse is starting to invest in farmland. I can't remember the number I heard on Ag Day (I was snoozing) but there is a real runup going on in the cornbelt.
Personally I think it is great that there is a big infusion of cash in small towns in those areas, I'm not sure how it will play out over the long run but just like the ex-urbanites contribution to small town infrastructure this is a good thing going forward in the sense it might help out if there is ever to be a resurgence of local agriculture.
One can hope. Meanwhile, the giant farms keep on getting more gigantic, right?
John Michael Greer said pretty much the same thing. His dinosaur analogy halfway down is pretty insightful. Good read.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4053 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
For those of you who have any doubts, peak oil is still on. In fact with each passing week we see clearer and clearer signs that our cheap-energy way of living is ending.
A few quick examples: Russian oil production is declining as we saw widely reported in the news this week. Mexico's oil production is in serious decline, and Mexico will become a net energy importer in three years, or thereabouts. Saudi Arabia's oil production is running flat out and they're barely able to maintain their roughly 9 mb/d production levels. The Saudi's have been unable to increase production even with oil now at $115/bbl. Indonesia, long a reliable source of oil throughout Asia, is now a net fossil fuel importer. Demand from China and SE Asia keeps growing while the worlds production is flat. The worlds largest oil sources are no longer reliable partly due to depletion, but also due to increased domestic demand in the oil producing nations thereby reducing the amount that is available for export.
From the above alone, peak oil is clear enough for anyone to see, but the clearest and most painful sign that our way of life is changing is widespread use of ethanol, which is now being called a crime against humanity. In 2007 25% of the USA's corn was harvested for ethanol for use in personal transportation vehicles. By 2012, according to plan, it will reach half. The harsh effect of burning grain crops is that it displaces grains which would have otherwise been exported resulting in much higher food prices both domestically and overseas. We see the result of this in the recent food riots in the Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti, Egypt, Mexico and elsewhere which have been widely reported. And this is only the start.
Ethanol use will also lead to starvation across much of the globe. A single car burning three liters of 10% ethanol mix daily for one year will burn the food equivalent one person needs to survive. Multiply that by the tens of millions of cars which are now starting to use ethanol and you can see why it's use is called a crime against humanity. Widespread ethanol use will kill tens of millions of the worlds poorest each year. Hundreds of millions if it's use expands as planned. The scale of the killing cause by ethanol use will be unprecedented and will exceed the carnage brought on by all previous wars.
Widespread use of ethanol clearly demonstrates how desperate we've become to keep our wasteful lifestyle going in the face of a looming declining oil supply. If there was enough oil we wouldn't need to resort to burning our food. But the fact is we can't produce enough oil so in order to keep fuel wasteful personal vehicles running we're now willing to kill tens, maybe hundreds of millions. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
eastbay wrote:
For those of you who have any doubts, peak oil is still on. In fact with each passing week we see clearer and clearer signs that our cheap-energy way of living is ending.
What cheap energy way of living? The only way we can consume as much oil as we do is via tremendous inefficiency, which is definitely not cheap. _________________
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:27 am Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
yesplease wrote:
Heineken wrote:
Europe is ALREADY bursting at the seams with people. Very very high, unsustainable densities (doing plenty of damage although much of it is disguised or displaced).
Would you say they are more unsustainable than the US?
Heineken wrote:
Also, educational and economic levels there are unusually high. So naturally the intrinsic growth rate there has slowed or even slightly reversed. But illegal immigration will inevitably overwhelm those countries.
It may or may not. It hasn't so far.
None of it is "sustainable."
Many European countries are being flooded with immigrants, and have been for some time now. It's a fact. Continue the trend and you reach "overwhelmed." _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
yp wrote: "Besides, how are we going to win our wars without endless human supplies to throw at the enemy?"
And don't forget the need to make mass markets for mass production.
Eastbay has the nailed the essential issue. We have become accustomed/addicted to a lifestyle that involves enormous and obscene waste, especially of energy, and as the previously cheap energy sources dry up, we will be thrashing about more and more violently for a new fix:
invading new countries,
burning more food,
scraping up tarry sand,
ripping up mountains
turning landscapes into windmill forests,
carpeting everything with solar panels...
anything to keep up the pretense that we can continue to live in this absurdly wasteful way. And there will always be another huckster ready to sell us another techno-fix.
It ain't pretty, and it ain't gonna get any prettier. (Understatement)
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol consumes almost a quarter of US corn production
Heineken wrote:
None of it is "sustainable."
I didn't say any of it was sustainable, I just asking which was more sustainable, or to put it another way, which was closer to sustainability.
Heineken wrote:
Many European countries are being flooded with immigrants, and have been for some time now. It's a fact. Continue the trend and you reach "overwhelmed."
Even with immigrants flooding in, they're still loosing people overall. It's a fact. Whether that rend will continue and/or for how long remains to be seen. _________________
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