City Survival Case Study- Wellington, New Zealand

Felix · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 31, 2004 Posts: 37

G'day everyone,

I'm interested in what you all might have to say about the chances of living on in cities, once the Peak has bitten down hard. As I'm a self-interested individual, I thought I'd ask about the city I'm in, but of course, if this discussion proves to be of value, then much of it may be applied to other cities around the world. So, how do you think a city like Wellington will cope with Peak?

To sum up, Wellington is situated around a large natural harbour. The regional population is about 450,000, including the outlying suburbs and farmland. It has little flat space, and what it does have is now built up with suburbs. It has rail lines heading out into productive agricultural areas, about 60km to the north. There are some farms closer to the city centre, but not enough to feed it. Fresh water has to be piped in from the hill ranges about 50km to the north. The climate is mild, and though it's cold in winter, it rarely drops below freezing. Wellington is the capital of New Zealand, and has a large government sector, so if New Zealand stays functional, it will continue to fulfill this role, and be subsidised by the rest of the country, through taxes turning into bureacrat's wages. There is some industry, but this has faded with the offshoring of jobs to Asia. Wellington has a moderate amount of public transport, with about 40% coverage in electric rail, and the rest by diesel bus. There are some trolley buses still in operation, but they're old and need replacing. In Wellington City itself, where about a third of the population live, it is possible to commute by bike (up to 40 minute journeys, depending on fitness) but from the further suburbs, this is only for the hardy and fit. The population is well educated, and reasonably homogenous culturally, though not ethnically.

Some info if you're interested;
http://www.wellingtonnz.com/AboutWellington/

I think that covers it. While I'm using Wellington as a case study, this is really a discussion about how small-medium sized cities will cope. Those that aren't yet too big to move around in by foot or bike, and that may still have a role to play in the post-peak world.

So, let me know what you think,

Cheers,

Felix
Wellington
New Zealand.

Colorado-Valley · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 16, 2004 Posts: 733

Why don't you just get Peter Jackson to re-ignite that fiery Balrog from the movie and then you should have plenty of energy!

Sorry, man ... ' Very Happy

'

nocar · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 05, 2004 Posts: 689

IMO, I think it will fare relatively well, especially since their is a railroad to agricultural areas. Since it has a harbor it can accomodate sailing ships, although that is quite far itne the future.

Some types of food, like grains, oil and sugar can be transported easily over long distances even if it is slow (like other parts of NZ). They keep and have high calorie content per weight. Fresh produce is another matter. Do people have gardens big enough for a green house? Then the season for home grown vegetables is increased.

The farms close to W. can profitable grow things like potatoes, dairy and meat. Some city people might move out to the labor intensive farms.

By all means, fight for keeping and renewing the trolley buses! How is your electricity generated?

And protect your water resources. I suppose your sewage goes to the sea. If you can transport the urine (rail road) back to the farm things get more sustainable.

Actually, before people had running water in Stockholm, in the late 1800s they had developed as system of transporting latrine out to veggie and flower producers outside Stockholm by rail road. The cleaned containers then went back the same way for reuse.

mikela · Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 3:49 am Post subject:

I think New Zealand is an interesting case. Not one but two major islands, and there's nothing like a hedge of endless water to simplify survival scenarios. A large and politically diverse locale such as, say, South America would offer more places to go if local conditions worsen; you can expect to to see rampant crime, millitaristic coups, a mass exodus or three of hungry city-dwellers, and some resource wars, but they won't likely be everywhere at once. Being on an island is more like rolling the dice: you might escape the fate of your larger neighbors for a time, but when you fall, you fall hard. This could come in the form of the loss of trading partners (Australia, US), sharply decreased world trade due to fuel prices, or even an invasion you kiwis thought would never come due to your remoteness.

New Zealand may be small, but it's not tiny, and I remember reading that it's about the size of California (a place I'm much more familiar with). It also has a good variety of geography and climate. On paper it has a relatively low poulation density (Auckland sprawl notwithstanding), and if it stopped trying to export its good soil in the form of dairy, meat, produce, and other foodstuffs, I think it might have a chance at feeding it own...eventually. Obviously a great many suburbians would have to start growing their own food. BTW, how depleted is the soil over there in the commercial crops areas?

As for Wellington, being the capital city, it may do better than other cities due to the resilience of the government through taxes. I think it will also be a barometer for the economic health of the country. Economically, NZ has done well in the last several economic downturns due to its fast growth (which is in turn due to what? Immigration? Lots of people still coming into their baby- and money- producing prime? Beneficial trade arrangements leading to a strong NZ dollar?). I believe I read somewhere that most industry, materials, and perhaps corporate interests are owned by foreigners, much as it is in Australia. That means the corporate interests will want to keep the money flowing, and so I don't expect NZ to go easily from a (mostly) sleepy pastoral past, to an economic growth powerhouse, to a sleepy agrarian future. Pardon my misocnceptions; I don't know enough about New Zealand as I probably should...

In the end, while I think your sucess in Wellington will be aided by some local food production and the relatively small size of the city, it will depend more upon the economy there, which is largely a matter of international trade and relations, which is mostly a matter of geography. If NZ can continue to produce a surplus of food (everything I've read suggests this, but can you confirm?), it will probably be one of the more stable countries out there. Hmm, and then again, you are facing an imminent natural gas shortage, and it's not always so warm down there. Time to get more wind turbines up and running!

Eteonian · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 09, 2005 Posts: 45

You'll be fine dude, Helen, John and the rest of the petrolheads will be stuck in Mt Albert probably mobbed early on by Aucklander's terminally mystified about what to do with the brilliant motorways she has built them with the last of the the big tax takes instead of making some preparations. Most of the government body will decay very fast. I can't see good cabage growing in Lambton Quay.

AKL has got to be the worst - although my friends there comfort themselves with the fertile Bombay Hill soil potential to feed 1.3 million-, WLG, second. CHC would be the best place, economically never was more than big supply town for the rural hinterland. There is still vege growers in cycling distance of the CBD.

Seriously. NZ will be in deep crap. Our wise government has banked the country following pressure from the US totally on the free market. Look at all the other countries, all have government sponsored long term supply contracts with energy suppliers - Germany, India, China and others ar securing them fast. NZ buys everything on the the open market at spot prices with no supply guarantees. I am sure Singapore will wield a lot more clout redirecting tankers destined for Marsden Point (NZ's only refinery) to it's own port. According to people that run that part of the operation here our fuel stocks sometimes go down to 15 days supply between tankers arriving. And I am sure they can pay higher spot prices than we can.

But hey, who needs an economy? You can just spend some time on the new Wellington beach while it's there. I am not hopeful sand shipments from Golden Bay will continue much longer though.

julianj · Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:56 am Post subject: One bright bit of news

Hi
Lowem posted a chart ages ago, and NZ came top of the list as far as sustainability goes - although I understand you generate a lot of your energy from Natural Gas...oooh that's going to be a problem.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3853

Hi, Felix:

Got some questions for you:

a. What's the climate like, growing seasons, etc.? Also, how many heating days (does it get cold? if so, for how long at a time?)

b. What's the current per-capita auto use and/or mass transit use %? Even though mass transit is available, it would be interesting to know whether this is the dominant form of transport, and/or how much pain would be caused if everybody was forced to use it.

c. How homogenous is the population? 'Round here (USA), we have pretty large numbers of oppressed minorities confined in the inner cities that have the potential to cause a lot of problems if things get tight. If the population is mainly uni-racial, lot easier to get a team spirit going and get cooperation.

d. How much effort is currently being spent on "productive occupations" such as: manufacturing, materials conversion, farming, construction, etc. versus occupations that consist mainly of writing emails or sell insurance to each other. Probably good to have an economic base in which people actually add value other than on paper.

e. A cultural question: Around here (Suburbia USA) it is at the point where the percentage of meals eaten outside the home (namely, fast food or restaurant meals rather than home-cooked) is on the order of 60-75%. Do your people still know how to prepare their own meals, using unprocessed food? It's probably a minor point, but food consumption around here consists of really highly processed, pre-packaged stuff and if the supply of this ended today, there would be a lot of stress as some of these food preparation skills would have to be re-learned (example: plucking chickens). Does your food distribution system rely on big trucks, agricultural empires, and massive supermarkets, or do you still have little shops in which food items can be bought? What's the attitude of the local population to home gardening?

Felix · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 31, 2004 Posts: 37

G'day everyone,

Thanks for replying. Unfortunately, I can't dignify your posts with a reply just yet, as it's knock-off time on Friday, and I need a beer....... When I get a chance over the weekend or next week, I'll post a proper response. Thanks though for putting some thought into a subject that is, funnily enough, quite near to my heart.

One thing though. Fortunately we don't have a Balrog nearby, in Peter Jackson's studios. Apparently only a Dark God like Morgoth is capable of controlling one of these, and though our conservative politicians can be quite dark, they certainly lack Godlike status. And without that Lord of Evil to control it, the Balrog would probably be a bit anti-social, slaying to the left and slaying to the right. Better that we don't have one I reckon.

Cheers,

Felix
Wellington
New Zealand

Felix · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 31, 2004 Posts: 37

bart · Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2005 11:37 pm Post subject:

Global Public Media recently published a piece on NZ and Peak Oil
"Stepping Back from the Brink - Some Sanity at Last!" by Kevin Moore
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/345

tokyo_to_motueka · Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2005 7:31 am Post subject:

Well, with the viability of an urban area post-peak, i think you can list a few key factors, which are going to determine how good or bad your outcome will be. You then need to assign weightings to each factor to get some sort of basic model going. Anyway, here are my initial ideas for the factors (in no particular order):

1. population density
2. infrastructure (esp. non-road transport of people/freight)
3. employment structure and skills base (what percentage of the popn is actually producing vital stuff or seriously tradeable stuff in a post-peak world?)
4. land available for food production (including conversion from other current uses)
5. climate
6. water resources

In light of these factors, i would say that Wellington is relatively well placed, but it has too many bureacrats and other office workers who will need to start producing food or become archetypal 1950s NZ blokes: fix their own cars and machinery, build their own houses, do anything with a piece of number 8 fencing wire.
a lot of land will need to be converted and infrastructure modified. But you've got the wind as a bonus for power generation. and because of the hills everything is reasobably compact.

The biggest problem is that basically no one in NZ is doing any serious urban planning for the post-peak reality of massive reduction in car and truck usage.

But Auckland will be much harder hit in my view: non-existent train system (apparently, after huge incrases in train patronage over the last few years, there are about 7,000 regular train users of a population of 1.3 million--i base this figure on the so-called 3.3 million passenger trips made last year, since each passenger would use the train 10 times a week/50 weeks a year). Boom in apartments which will be useless post peak, badly built in-fill housing which will be energy inefficient and has no land for growing food, etc., etc.

i was born and grew up in Auckland, but i would rather not go back until all the motorways have been converted to tram tracks and cycle ways.