Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:18 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
Schadenfreude wrote:
What sort of general estimate would you venture as a percentage increase in North America NG production? How far out would you guess this might push out the peak?
I have no idea. The opening article had the CEO of Chesapeake Energy saying we can expect 5% yearly increases for the immediate future. One of the people quoted in the CNN article said we can expect increases of 6 bcf/day for the next several years. Beyond that, who knows? Obviously they don't want to produce too much, because they'd flood the market with unmarketable gas and crash the price. If you look at the EIA chart I showed before, dry NG production has consistently been between 16 and 21 tcf/year going all the way back to 1966, and even consumption hasn't really risen all that much in the past 12 years. That suggests to me there might be some sort production ceiling limited by demand, unless they start exporting a lot, and/or a ton of new NG users come online soon. But given these big new discoveries, it's tempting for me to think they can produce 20-something tcf/year for a very long time. Especially since there are other unconventional NG deposits holding even more gas than these shales.
Schadenfreude wrote:
Considering that a barrel of oil went for $117 today, one would think that enormously good news like this would make some big headlines. However, I haven't seen anything at all mentioned on TV News and the CNN article is the first one I've seen in MSM print.
Americans are hungry for good news right now and the media knows this. If this were a sudden bonanza of magnificent proportions, it would be all over the news - even more the Jack 2 pilot well in the Gulf. Jack 2 got a lot of coverage. Where is the media now?
My observation is that people tend to be skeptical of good news ("It's too good to be true!") so perhaps the national media prefers to focus on the bad stuff because it sells better. But if you do a google-news search for "Marcellus shale" or "Barnett shale" you'll notice these things get quite a bit of coverage in local news. Don't know why it isn't big news nationally yet. On the other hand, I did just link a CNN article, didn't I. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:30 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
Starvid wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Marcellus Shale in the Appalachians could hold a staggering 516 trillion cubic feet, with at least 50 tcf of it extractable. This was really just "discovered" late last year.
Are these low extraction fractions (gah, forgot the English word) typical for shale plays?
"Rate" is the word usually used.
The 516 tcf estimated by that professor was merely an upper end, he also had a lower end of 168 tcf. But he still estimated a recoverable amount of 50 tcf based on technology, not as a percentage of resource-in-place.
Quote:
According to Engelder, the technology exists to recover 50 trillion cubic feet of gas from the Marcellus, thus keeping the U.S. production up.
On another thread I've got a quote from him saying these amounts are probably conservative.
Starvid wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
It would be interesting to see a situation where we have a resource that is abundant, but somewhat expensive.
Think nuclear electricity. Massively abundant resource only constrained by very big capital costs and temporary lack of competent workers.
Might be a good analogy, though this shale NG is still not nearly as expensive as nuclear, I don't think, even taking into account the expensive drilling.
Starvid wrote:
By the way, I wish people would stop wasting gas on heat and power. NG makes excellent motor fuel.
Maybe someday. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:36 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
Schadenfreude wrote:
Considering that a barrel of oil went for $117 today, one would think that enormously good news like this would make some big headlines. However, I haven't seen anything at all mentioned on TV News and the CNN article is the first one I've seen in MSM print.
Americans are hungry for good news right now and the media knows this. If this were a sudden bonanza of magnificent proportions, it would be all over the news - even more the Jack 2 pilot well in the Gulf. Jack 2 got a lot of coverage. Where is the media now?
Almost forgot this one . . .
In early February the Marcellus shale made the front page of the business section of USA Today. So there's another national media exposure:
-- >Appalachia tantalizes natural gas drillers <-- _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 4:36 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
OilFinder2 wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
Considering that a barrel of oil went for $117 today, one would think that enormously good news like this would make some big headlines. However, I haven't seen anything at all mentioned on TV News and the CNN article is the first one I've seen in MSM print.
Americans are hungry for good news right now and the media knows this. If this were a sudden bonanza of magnificent proportions, it would be all over the news - even more the Jack 2 pilot well in the Gulf. Jack 2 got a lot of coverage. Where is the media now?
Almost forgot this one . . .
In early February the Marcellus shale made the front page of the business section of USA Today. So there's another national media exposure:
-- >Appalachia tantalizes natural gas drillers <--
I remember seeing Jim Cramer of 'Mad Money' claiming that we should switch over as much transportation as we can to NG because the US had all kinds of reserves of gas. He made it seem as if we were only buying oil from the Middle East as a favor to the Arabs; that we could stop buying from them anytime we wanted. It made me wonder where he was getting his facts.
That was only a couple of weeks ago, and he didn't mention any new developments of this sort in NG production - which would seem a natural thing for an investment guru to do in an interview on the subject, especially if this were a paradigmatic shift! So I'm really just puzzling because your sources paint a picture of a bonanza yet it is not being thrust in the public's face much at all. Also, if it is a new development that means that the US will NOT have to construct LNG terminals, I can't understand why this isn't HUGE news everywhere with commentary from the likes of Matt Simmons and T. Boone Pickens and everyone else concerned about the US' energy future.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
@Schadenfreude,
Except for the Barnett Shale, most of this is very new. This stuff is already big news in the energy and investment community (you see a lot of news on these shales on Motley Fool and similar websites), and as I said, individual shales very often make local news. But as a national phenomenon it will probably take time to become widespread news and common knowledge. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
Incidentally, I might as well link to the recent threads started on these individual shales, just for reference.
--> Haynesville shale - 30 tcf, maybe more <--
--> Marcellus shale - 168 to 516 tcf, at least 50 tcf recoverable <--
--> Utica shale - 4 tcf just on one company's holdings <-- _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
"We believe that the Chattanooga Shale on the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee will prove to be as economically productive as the Barnett Shale in Texas and the Marcellus Shale, that stretches from New York through West Virginia," he added.
"Last year, Consol Energy, Inc. drilled the first horizontal well in the region that had initial production of 3.9 MMCF of gas per day. That put the energy industry on notice that the Chattanooga shale is, in fact, an economically viable source of natural gas.
"There are several advantages to producing the Chattanooga Shale," Larry Hillabrandt noted. "The Chattanooga Shale is substantially shallower than the Marcellus, and Barnett shale with the Chattanooga shale being only about 1,500 to 2,000 feet deep. "In addition we feel the greatest advantage for us is that there are more than 1,000 abandoned and shut in gas wells in Tennessee that can be recompleted in the shale. We expect to acquire several hundred of these wells at a cost of well below what it would cost to drill new wells. This will be a substantial savings, and give us a competitive advantage we need," he added.
Industry sources believe the Tennessee Chattanooga shale gas play could eventually encompass 6,000 square miles and contain 5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas.
And still another one . . . in northeastern British Columbia.
The possibility that the remote northeastern corner of British Columbia harbours a spectacular, untapped natural gas resource is growing increasingly certain.
Calgary-based gas explorer Nexen Inc. became the latest company to herald a vast new opportunity in B.C. when it announced that drilling results on its property in the Horn River Basin suggest a potential reserve as great as six trillion cubic feet of gas.
"This is the first time these kind of rock properties have shown up on the radar screen in Canada, and you guys [in B.C.] just happen to have a whole bunch of it," said Nexen's Michael Harris, vice-president of investor relations.
"This is clearly the most exciting thing we've had in B.C. for a long, long time."
The Nexen announcement follows a similar declaration in February by EOG Resources that its potential net reserve at Horn River is approximately six trillion cubic feet.
All inferences to date about the size of the resource are preliminary -- based on results from barely a handful of holes drilled.
But if the projections are correct, they would collectively increase Canada's total proven natural gas reserves by about 20 per cent -- and that may be at the low end of what's possible.
And if that weren't enough, how about 60 tcf near Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan?
Shale party comes to Saskatchewan
Tiny PanTerra sees potential for next big natural gas find
Shaun Polczer, Calgary Herald
Published: Saturday, April 12, 2008
After big discoveries in British Columbia and Quebec, a small Calgary company is hoping Saskatchewan will be the next shale gas hot spot.
That's because tiny PanTerra Resource Corp. has almost half a million hectares of prospective land near Moose Jaw it says could hold more than 60 trillion cubic feet of unconventional gas reserves.
U.S. Feb natgas production jumps 10 pct yr/yr -EIA
Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:15pm BST
NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. gross natural gas production in February rose more than 1.6 percent from January and more than 10 percent from the same year-ago month, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In its EIA-914 Monthly Natural Gas Production Report, EIA said "wet" gas output in the lower 48 states climbed to 61.28 billion cubic feet per day in February, up nearly 1 bcf per day from January levels and nearly 6 bcf per day higher than in February 2007.
The data presented by EIA are gross estimates and are the basis for calculating marketed production after subtracting gas used for repressuring, quantities vented and flared, and nonhydrocarbon gases removed in treating or processing operations.
EIA said all areas reported increases for February, but Texas had the biggest year-on-year gain, accounting for almost half of the total, primarily due to strong output from Barnett Shale production in North Texas.
The monthly increase continued a 13-month upward trend in domestic production resulting from strong, successful drilling, EIA said in the report.
In a report early this month, EIA estimated that marketed production of U.S. natural gas in 2008 would be up 1.6 bcf per day, or 2.9 percent, but some industry analysts expect the increase to be much larger, as strong gains from deepwater Gulf of Mexico wells and unconventional supply sources like shale gas keep output growing at a brisk pace.
EIA data is here. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 1:55 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
Also, last year the US reached a new natural gas production high:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm
^
24,536,309 MMcf in 2007. Previous high was 24,500,779 MMcf in 2001. Sorry, no peak here. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 10:19 am Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
It's quaint that you're so happy we're sucking all the gas out of the ground as fast as we can.
Tell me, what are you going to tell your kids or grandkids when it's all gone, that you couldn't save any for them because you wanted all for yourself?
No need to respond, OF. I just wanted you to think about that for a minute. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
A significant natural gas discovery in southwestern Ontario!
Onco Petroleum Inc. has accumulated Approx 40,000 net acres over the last 5 years, where 18 vertical wells were drilled, and based on technical data; the preliminary net reserve potential on Onco's acreage is estimated to be approximately 1.6 TCF (trillion cubic feet). First production is expected to begin in late 2008, with a full scale drilling program in 2009 and beyond.
Pioneer estimates original gas in place under its acreage in the Pierre Shale, in the Raton Basin, at approximately 21 trillion cubic feet or Tcf with a total net gas resource potential in excess of 2 Tcf. Proved reserves were recorded at 18 billion cubic feet or Bcf as of December 31, 2007, and anticipates proved reserves from the Pierre Shale to go up to 70 Bcf end 2008 and over 200 Bcf end 2010.
Pioneer indicates approximately 1,200 risk-adjusted potential drilling locations in the Pierre Shale on 80-acre well spacing. Wells would be linked to the company's extensive existing coal bed methane or CBM infrastructure and drilled from both existing and new pads, utilizing Pioneer's integrated well service model and benefiting from related drilling efficiencies. Finding and development costs are expected to average $10 to $15 per BOE with an average before tax internal rate of return of approximately 40% at an average gas price of $8 per thousand cubic feet or Mcf.
From the lowest Pierre Shale interval, initial production is expected to average 750 Mcf per day per well. Pioneer plans to drill 175 wells in the Raton Basin, including 15 Pierre Shale wells in 2008, while activities are expected to accelerate in 2009, indicating a compounded average annual production growth rate from the Raton Basin of 10% to 15%.
The Raton Basin is in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural ga
OilFinder2 wrote:
Don't worry joe, there will be plenty of energy for my kids and grandkids, natural gas included.
Don't bet on that, OF
The last two "finds" you listed wouldn't even make 2 months of current US use, since we use around 2 tcf a month or so. These are drops in the bucket and will be played out not long after they're first drilled.
Is it really that exciting they're finding a fields that aren't even big enough for a month of use? I find it pretty depressing, actually. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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