Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 7:39 pm Post subject: Peak Lithium?
Not according to Geologist R. Keith Evans.
Bill Moore wrote:
How much lithium is there in the world in Evan's professional analysis? He estimates it at 28.4 million tonnes of lithium, which is equivalent to 150 million tonnes of lithium carbonate. Current world demand is 16,000 tonnes.
Coincidentally, Meridian International Research seems to be pushing Zinc Air batteries on their web page.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4537 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 4:00 am Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Lithium is common enough that there is no recycling infrastructure for used lithium batteries. I think this is short-sighted, but it does give you an idea of where we are on the depletion curve for this element, which is nowhere near a danger point.
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:25 am Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
yesplease wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Peak Lithium?
I guess that explains Golem...
Totally over mah head, could you elaborate?
Lithium is a common treatment for schizophrenia. A lot of people think golem is a crazy man who's gone off his meds. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 582 Location: Portugal
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Well, that's strange.. I read that a golem is a mythological creature which is summoned by chanting a spell while moulding clay into a human shape. After the shape is done and the spell is over, you write EMET in its head. The clay shape then magnifies, gains life and becomes a servant of its creator until the word EMET is erased from its forehead.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:41 am Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
This stinks. It's stinks like fresh crap.
Let's see if I've got this.
In 1976, there was enough concern about Lithium to assemble a task force to analyze it.
A guy recently does an analysis and says, "we don't have enough, EV is dead as an alternative to IC engines".
A year or so later a counter report comes out that says, "nothing to see here folks, keep moving, plenty of lithium."
It stinks.
The first question I have is, what is R. Keith Evans connection to all of this?
So you check his blog, and you find that he's worked for mineral/mining companies since the 70s, and that "he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals."
So let me translate that for you. This guy Evans is the mining industry stooge, and his likely motivation for the "nothing to see here folks" paper is very simple - if the EV car never takes off, his employers don't make more money.
It's the same stinky story that we juts lived over the last 30 years.
This guy Evans is the equivalent to Big Oil CERA type stooges who have lied for the last 30 years about how much oil is available for our use.
My current conclusion is . . .
Lithium supply is an issue and more analysis needs to be done.
I had hoped that a rough transition to EVs was possible.
Then I saw that a retrofit battery pack for the Prius was 10 grand.
Then I heard the Chevy Volt was going to cost 40 grand.
Now I'm starting to believe that the EV movement is not going to happen.
The whole lithium thing smacks of oil's history - 76 meeting predicting production issues - Hubbard, initial paper questioning supply, immediate industry response - no worries here.
Stinks. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
personally I think the final price will be $60K
These projects always follow the same pattern. An initial "low ball" price announcement is made to bamboozle all the gullible people. However once the final product rolls off the assembly line the price goes up and the performance fails to live up to original announcements. Recall that the original price of the volt was suppose to be $30K. And lets not forget the Tesla car was suppose to have a range of 250miles.....but much like a poorly produced porno movie the final performance always comes up short.
//
Trying to find a viable electric car is like trying to find WMD in Iraq. There is no shortage of expert studies to "prove" it's existence but you can spend the rest of your life and NEVER find it.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Yeah cube, it's depressing.
More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.
To me, that means that the electric only range is going to suck. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Cashmere wrote:
More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.
okay I take my price estimate back. I think GM can make this for $48K. All they have to do is go cheap on the batteries and rely heavily on the gasoline engine.
I find it laughable it's being marketed as an EV car ohhh but with a ICE engine "range extender" *facepalm*
I don't think this gimmick is going to work. The people who signed their name on the waiting list signed up for an EV car NOT a hybrid. I expect to see a mass exodus once this car finally rolls off the production line. Or maybe this car will never be produced. American car companies are bleeding so much red ink right now for all we know there might not even be a GM once year 2010 rolls by!
///
getting back to peak lithium
according to "William Tahil" there isn't enough
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/30/beyond-peak-oil-are-we-facing-peak-lithium/
Who the hell is "William Tahil"? I don't know I guess that's like asking who the hell is "Keith Evans".
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Cashmere wrote:
Yeah cube, it's depressing.
More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.
To me, that means that the electric only range is going to suck.
Not that you would want to mess around with a car you just paid $50k for, but I suppose that in an ideal world, the gasoline generator could be replaced with another motor... sterling engine, biofuel engine, what have you.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
It's funny how proponents of "peak lithium" are often the same people pushing the Zebra battery, which operates at over 400 degC (750 degF) and has been found most suitable so far in guided missiles such as the Sidewinder and Tomahawk - an obviously throw-away, one-time use application.
There is some degree of truth to the "peak lithium" theory, but only barely. There is enough lithium to go around. The only issue is finding enough of it concentrated in "economic" deposits, mostly in brine (salt) lakes and ponds.
Currently people do not even bother to recycle lithium and this gives you some indication of how cheap it is right now, compared with Ni-MH batteries which are mainly nickel, a metal costing an exorbitant $22,000 per metric ton (for comparison, lithium is around $8,000 which is about where copper prices are as well).
And if you are an investor, lithium is a great investment theme. Prices may be cheap now but they won't stay cheap forever. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Lithium?
Cashmere wrote:
So you check his blog, and you find that he's worked for mineral/mining companies since the 70s, and that "he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals."
So let me translate that for you. This guy Evans is the mining industry stooge, and his likely motivation for the "nothing to see here folks" paper is very simple - if the EV car never takes off, his employers don't make more money.
Sounds like another prominent individual mentioned on this site, names starts w/ a M, worked for Shell. Employment alone does not constitute a valid criticism of someone's statements. Applying your statement to this site's prominent individual using the same rhetoric leaves striking similarities.
Cashmere's take on Evans, on Hubbert wrote:
This guy Hubbert is the oil industry stooge, and his likely motivation for the "look and see here folks" paper is very simple - if oil never peaks, his employers don't make more money.
Cashmere wrote:
This guy Evans is the equivalent to Big Oil CERA type stooges who have lied for the last 30 years about how much oil is available for our use.
So... You believe the individual who releases d00m and gl00m, yet happens to work for a company selling a competing battery chemistry, but not the geologist? Do you believe in Yergin, but not the geologist too?
Cashmere wrote:
My current conclusion is . . .
Lithium supply is an issue and more analysis needs to be done.
I agree, what parts of Evans' paper do you think need expansion?
Cashmere wrote:
I had hoped that a rough transition to EVs was possible.
Then I saw that a retrofit battery pack for the Prius was 10 grand.
Then I heard the Chevy Volt was going to cost 40 grand.
Now I'm starting to believe that the EV movement is not going to happen.
That's more the costs associated with a boutique industry than the costs of a conversion. A couple grand should be enough to get a pack three times the size of the stock one as well as the needed electronics. If ya don't DIY, prepare to get ripped a new one, as cube knows. _________________
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