Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
KSA is not stopping anything. Nothing was ever planned. Since 2003, both its Ministry and Saudi Aramco have been transparent in issuing biannual guidance to analysts wrt to its business plan.
12 mb/d was its orginal target Capacity to Year 2054; with a plan to reach that goal by 2016. The highest Capacity ever issued was 13.45 mb/d (in 2006). It was adjusted downward in 2007 upon realization that the Underlying Decline factor was unexpectedly insufficient.
The current Capacity goal is again 12 mb/d.
The question that arises from this "for the children" press release is not related at all to any foiled expansion plans. There were none. Rather, it raises speculation on whether KSA is committed to holding that 12 mb/d volume. In light of rising Underlying Decline, new MegaProjects and EOR will be required to (at least) maintain this strategic plateau.
If not, crude production will decline to under 7 mb/d by 2025.
Last edited by LastViking on Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:41 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Starvid,
Thanks for the ASPO graph. This is what I was referencing. Even the "pessimists" at ASPO show SA maintaining a constant production for a number of years. Why is this pessimistic? Bc they say SA will not be able to increase production per all the optimist projections like those at CERA. The point of this SA "announcement" confirms what ASPO and other pessimist have projected and not what the optimist have projected.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4901 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Quote:
If not, crude production will decline to under 7 mb/d by 2025.
Ouch... When you figure in Mexico/Russia declining too. I couldn't imagine how much/how available petroleum products will be at that time. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1195 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Homesteader wrote:
Hey wait a minute, this cant be true. Didn't that Norwegian oil expert recently say that KSA production was going way, way up by 2030, like doubling or something?
Sorry, looked but couldn't find the article, so working from memory.
Ah ha! found it. . . .
snip:
From around 18 million barrels per day in 2005, the region’s total oil exports are projected to surge to more than 36 million bpd in 2030, said Noe van Hulst, Secretary-General of the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF). The rise will boost the Middle East’s share of world’s crude oil supplies to more than 30 per cent in 2030 from about 22 per cent in 2005, the Norwegian oil veteran told an oil conference in Mexico last week.
“The Middle East was the top oil supplier in 2005 and is expected to remain so in 2030,” he said in a speech sent to Emirates Business on Wednesday. Hulst gave no breakdown, but according to the US Energy Information Administration, Saudi Arabia will remain the dominant oil supplier, with its crude exports swelling to 17.1m bpd in 2030 from around nine million bpd in 2005.
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Quote:
Saudi Arabia’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -2.7%/year ±2% per year. The projected rate of increase in consumption is +4.4%/year ±2% per year. Their initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -4.7%/year ±4%. Our middle case shows Saudi Arabia approaching zero net exports in 2031, within a range from 2024 to 2037.
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
The Saudis have been lying for decades about how much oil they have. Their Ghawar field is now in decline and their overall production will start declining some time in the next few years. I guess "We do not foresee future demand" sounds better than saying "That 250 billion in proven reserves- we were just joking about that".
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
seahorse wrote:
Many PO pessimist do not believe the Saudis will ever pump 12 mbpd. However, even if they can, this is far less than the optimist are projecting for the Saudi's to produce over time. So, the news that Saudi Arabia will be stopping production capacity at 12mbpd and will leave other finds untapped for future generations does not help the optimist case, i.e. the Lynch's and CERAs.
If you have not read 'house of Bush, house of Saud' yet you will understand completely that the Sauds will lie cheat steal and assassinate to keep the lid on things. They will never again see 10 Mpbd. They have in their own subtle way suggested a two million barrel per day increase is coming on line in the next year. We need to mark this statement so we can send it to our representatives in Jan 2010, if oil is'nt already $250 per barrel that is.
Just a few years ago it was 25 Mbpd by 2015. I am really enraged by this. What audacity to lie so blatantly to a world that is going to see untold death and destruction all because one family of vagabonds is afraid of losing it's leer jets.
Shame be upon the House of Saud, who dealt treachorously and lived lavishly on the backs of the needy. Hypocrites within their own religion, will history honor them as great men? The dust of Arabia will swallow Riyadh before the eastern armies come. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4542 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
bob_NC wrote:
The Saudis have been lying for decades about how much oil they have. Their Ghawar field is now in decline and their overall production will start declining some time in the next few years. I guess "We do not foresee future demand" sounds better than saying "That 250 billion in proven reserves- we were just joking about that".
They are in a unique position, like Atlas, in holding the civilized world up on their shoulders. If they were to come forward and say that PO is upon us, and that their fields are in decline, it could cause instant panic. They are clearly stalling and the end is going to be the same one way or another, but at least we get a few more moments of normalcy.
The important thing is that they have (from all accounts) been almost perfect stewards of their oil fields to the point where the final tally of their production should pretty much be at the theoretical maximum. Other fields like in Mexico are being mishandled and will probably not come close to hitting their maximum recoverable reserves.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3329 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:46 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Electric_Economy_2025 wrote:
I like how everyone in the whole damn world knows more about Saudi Arabia then Saudi Arabia knows about themselfs
Can I invite you over for a poker game? Tell you what, I'll even tell you how good of a hand I'm holding each time you place a bet. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:08 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
They have in their own subtle way suggested a two million barrel per day increase is coming on line in the next year.
Each Aramco guidance on its acceleration of production capacity from 2016 to 2010 has been caveated with its plans for surplus capacity and underlying decline (2.7%). This makes it clear that its intentions for normal Supply are 10.25-mbd, down from earlier hopes of 10.95-mbd. Your 2-mbd insinuation is nonsense:
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:11 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
mos6507 wrote:
bob_NC wrote:
The Saudis have been lying for decades about how much oil they have. Their Ghawar field is now in decline and their overall production will start declining some time in the next few years. I guess "We do not foresee future demand" sounds better than saying "That 250 billion in proven reserves- we were just joking about that".
They are in a unique position, like Atlas, in holding the civilized world up on their shoulders. If they were to come forward and say that PO is upon us, and that their fields are in decline, it could cause instant panic. They are clearly stalling and the end is going to be the same one way or another, but at least we get a few more moments of normalcy.
The important thing is that they have (from all accounts) been almost perfect stewards of their oil fields to the point where the final tally of their production should pretty much be at the theoretical maximum. Other fields like in Mexico are being mishandled and will probably not come close to hitting their maximum recoverable reserves.
Mos,
I don't know why you believe the Saudis have been good stewards of their fields. There is no evidence of that except some mantra possibly passed on the news. However, that belief that the Saudis are good stewards of their fields was dispelled, for me at least, by a drilling engineer that used to post here screename energydigger.
Here's a post he made about his experience drilling in Saudi Arabia as late as 1999.
Quote:
no offense taken RockDoc, this is one of the reasons why I created the EnergyDigger.com website, to keep up with all this news... I had presumed from your screen name that you were a reservior engineer or a geologist.... your dealing with SPE papers and statistical data, much like the US government and some hedge funds out there - what I offer you is not hard data i nthe form you ask for and obviously prefer - but rather on the ground experience - I have drilled the new replacement wells as well as the workovers and I have seen first hand the declines and they are absolutely positivly real - even if I cannot support you with some SPE paper to that effect - the real issue here is graft - let me explain a particular situation and it will make more sense for you - try to put SPE papers and raw statistical data out of the picture for a moment and imagine that government and SPE figures are as about as accurate as the inflation figures and housing starts - - this is one of many variations of the same scenario in all phases of operations in Saudi - exploration/drilling, production, refining, etc..etc... - - - the royal family is now near 6,000 strong if not more... the king owns everything in that country - and i mean everything. By extension, the royal family has it's hands in everything that has anything to do with money - some flunky way down the list happens to control a mud (barite) supplier. The barite company sellign the barite to Aramco (via this low-level Saudi family member) decides to give the flunky a big cash award for accepting a lesser volume of barite but mark it as the full weight/volume as per the sale. The flunky makes off with a lot of cash and the barite supplier delivers the 60% of barite needed to drill the hole with. The drilling supervisor in charge of the operation is no idiot (my spelling is not great but I do know how to drill a well in my sleep) and confronts the Aramco manager with the issue decidely laying out the consequences of this action. The manager tells the supervisor to drill the well the best he can (because there is more than one cash award floating around, obviously) - - your hard working engineer drills the well with underbalanced drilling fluids which for the uninitiated causes blowouts among other greta things - I have seen three 30 million dollar Santa Fe rigs burned to the ground in as little as 4 months. BUT, let's say there is no fire, we get through this thing with our skin on and complete the well - Whew! OK.... well, theres another really big problem that will nag us for the remainder of the entire life of the well. When we drilled the well underbalanced (meaning the formation pressures are higher than the wellbore artificially induced drilling mud weight - the rheology of the drilling fluid systems did not build up what is termed a "skin" on the wall of the hole to seal the formation in from the chemicals and other formation fluids up and down the wellbore - as a reservior engineer, I can imagine you will greatly appreciate this particular example - if you take a core, it will be contaminated to unusable - and thus extreme formation damage has occurred - ultimately reducing the output and longevity of the well. SIGNIFICANTLY ! I have drilled wells over there in a field where I had everything i needed and brought in 600 bbl a day but most of the time, the wells can be ruined (in terms of Saudi rates) to less than 50 bbl/day... and that is day one, they can decline after that for the first year or two... the fields over there are all very homogenios - the wells can be batch drilled in a straight line across the desert and the results can be nearly identical with exceptions - the data I have is not printed but it is so firmly established that is is undisputible - at least for me.
That was only one example of graft hurting the Saudi oil production system - there are many many of these examples and that is just Saudi - Nigeria is even worse. Try North Africa or Eqypt, they are bad too - the European oilfields are much better run but less prolific. I drilled Japaneese Geothermals in Kyushu Island areas last year and they are extremely efficient but no real reserves except for the Northern Sapporro areas... Phillippines are the same - spent a month there last year. I spent January - June last year in Australia and they are declining at about 4% per year - falling behind very fast - a national emergency actually in their eyes. I lived in Venezuela and Columbia for 2 years in the mid 90's and graft is bad there as well but in a different way - the government runs the oilfields and need I say more about that??
Listen, I know you are trying to get the straight skinny here and I like hard fast numbers as much as the next guy, seriously, I am an engineer and that is a well know fact about the breed but I am telling you from first hand accounts at the most upstream end there is - I have been kidnapped 3 times in my career, twice in West Africa and once in South America - I have had morters land within 50 yards of me in Cabinda, Angola - - I flew into Kikwit, Zaire when ebola virus broke out and my company evacuated the country, I have worked hazard duty in the worst environments on earth and these experiences give one a keen eye for many things in life - including life itself - I have spent my entire adult career chasing oil - it has been my passion and my life for 30 years. I wish I had a better picture to paint but it is not as you say - the problem is real and I suggest only look at the real price of energy fuels today to justify my conclusions even if you cannot accept them at face value in this forum. It is actually a pretty simple equation but so many, including educated people find it hard to believe we are running so close to the edge on supply/demand.
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:26 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia stopping production expansion plans after 2
FreddyH wrote:
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
They have in their own subtle way suggested a two million barrel per day increase is coming on line in the next year.
Each Aramco guidance on its acceleration of production capacity from 2016 to 2010 has been caveated with its plans for surplus capacity and underlying decline (2.7%). This makes it clear that its intentions for normal Supply are 10.25-mbd, down from earlier hopes of 10.95-mbd. Your 2-mbd insinuation is nonsense:
They are currently pumping just over 7 mbpd, 10.25 - 7 is actually 3.25 mbpd more than what they pump now and they have not dared to crack 10 mbpd since the 80's. Alot of people forget that peak production for SA is still at the record set over 20 years ago. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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