Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 885 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
It looks to me as if global warming could produce winters of greater cold intensity for awhile due to the possibility for increased thin ice coverage and the air cooling that would result. The air doesn't need thick ice under it in order to be effected. It only needs something the surface temperature of which is below the freezing threshold of water, something that holds that temp. I have to speculate on the length of time that the thin ice can be expected to stick around into the spring. The greater cold intensity will probably be isolated within the ice timerange. Once the ice is gone the air temps coming out of the north will be free to increase dramatically and far sooner than they normally would have. It seems the new paradigm could be shorter but more intense winters where exposure to arctic air masses is a contributing factor to the severity of winter. I suppose this will have a dramatic effect on things like storm belt turbulence and and glacial melt. Glacier National Park will probably lose its glaciers sooner than has been expected. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
I dunno, looks like it is dropping off at a normal rate of change to me. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
NSIDC has now created a web page just to report current Arctic sea ice conditions.
Quote:
The online information we offer in this section includes:
Daily images of near-real-time Arctic sea ice conditions (above right)
Monthly scientific analysis year-round, with more frequent updates during the melt season or as conditions warrant
Previous news and analysis and general information about sea ice (right navigation)
RSS feed for automatic notification of new analyses.
Please credit the National Snow and Ice Data Center for image or content use unless otherwise noted beneath each image. Sign up for the Arctic Sea Ice News RSS feed for automatic notification of analysis updates.
April 7, 2008
Arctic sea ice extent at maximum below average, thin
Arctic sea ice reached its yearly maximum extent during the second week of March, 2008. Maximum extent was slightly greater compared to recent years, but was still well below average.
Despite strong growth of new ice over the winter, sea ice is still in a general state of decline. The ice that grew over the past winter is relatively thin, first-year ice that is susceptible to melting away during the summer. Although natural variability in the atmospheric circulation could prevent the ice pack from breaking last year's summer record, a closer look at sea ice conditions indicates that the September 2008 minimum extent will almost certainly be well below average.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 7:22 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
Looking at the Cryosphere page with its multiple individual basin graphs this morning clearly shows that four of the seven are melting at a brisk pace as is normal for this time of year, but they started from a higher level than last year and remain a bit higher in total for this date.
The NSIDC graph is telling.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
Looks like another glitch. The drop is a straight line segment which does not show the short timescale variation typical of all the data before it. But even if the ice extent is above 2007, the flushing of the perennial ice means that the melt of the one year ice this year will have a record extent.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
dissident wrote:
Looks like another glitch. The drop is a straight line segment which does not show the short timescale variation typical of all the data before it. But even if the ice extent is above 2007, the flushing of the perennial ice means that the melt of the one year ice this year will have a record extent.
Looking at the last week of reports on the time series display HERE leads me to beleive the last two days of straight down are faulty data, however the Sea of Okhotsk and Bearing Sea are both dropping rapidly. This leads me to beleive that the downward curve for the first half of April is correct. Remember the two graphs do not map exactly the same thing, one is sea ice extent from edge to edge and the other is sea ice coverage not counting the open water in the total mass. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
xironman wrote:
Wow,
In the two days since you posted that it went off the cliff to below 2007.
They fixed it now, we are still above the 2007 level for this date but getting closer to the recorded line for last year. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:27 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
Yeah,
I should have noticed that the line was too straight. The top of curve in mid-April threw me off. Still it is within spitting distance now. I wonder if the ending of La Nina is positive or negative for the ice cap? Especially since it melted so fast last year going into a strong La Nina.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
Well melt off is accellerating! Based on ANIMATION for the last 14 day period you see a rapid melting in six different circumpolar sea area's. Specifically the Bearing Sea and Sea of Okhotsk bordering the Pacific ocean and the St Lawrence mouth, Baffin Sea, Barents Sea and Hudson's Bay.
Some of the drops over the last few days are pretty steep, but looking over last years graph they seem to be right on schedual. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Ice was the last thing David Barber was worried about when he and an international team of scientists made plans last year to have their research icebreaker frozen into the Beaufort Sea for the winter.
Quote:
But when the Amundsen sailed into the western Arctic in November, the ice that normally begins to take hold in October hadn't even begun to gel.
"Even by mid-December, the southern Beaufort Sea was still wide open," said Barber, a University of Manitoba sea ice physicist and chief scientist aboard the Amundsen. "That's over a month longer than the time freeze-up normally occurs."
"I think this summer really will tell the story," Barber says. "If we get yet another huge meltdown, as I suspect we might, then we could see more of these fractures occurring in the future. That kind of breakup only serves to accelerate the meltdowns we are already seeing.
"Theoretically, we could see an Arctic that is ice-free in summer months a lot sooner than most people previously thought. Some people think that it could happen in five or six years."
Putting that into perspective, Barber notes that the Arctic hasn't been seasonally ice-free for at least the past 1.1 million years.
"Let that sink in for a moment," he suggests. "The medieval warm period occurred about 1,000 years ago; the Egyptian civilization peaked about 4,000 years ago; the last ice age was 18,000 years ago; heck, there have been several ice ages within this 1.1-million-year period, and we have always had sea ice in the northern hemisphere in summer."
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3908 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
In a mixture of contradictory signals NSIDC shows the decline less today than yesterday while Cryosphere shows a minor bump and then still sliding down. I wonder which one is a more valuable measure, ice pack edge to edge or ice pack minus open water area's? _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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