Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
zensui wrote:
So those this means that international trade organizations are provoking that "the poors are priced out of the equation in the food market"? This, if true, is sick and pathetic. Where's the trigger? (cross reference to other forgoten thread)
Yes, it's true to certain degree, and it's been going on for years. The government forces free trade policies on other countries while protecting our own farmers with agricultural subsidies. It's blatant hypocrisy.
If you take a close look around the world, you'll notice that countries that have taken the advice of the World Bank and IMF - that is to say, the U.S. - are doing much more poorly than countries that ignored them.
What we should be debating is to what degree Western malfeasance is to blame in the current catastrophe. Obviously, there are a lot of factors at work. Ethanol, bad harvests and high oil prices have driven prices higher, but U.S.-encouraged trade policies have hamstrung countries in their efforts to respond.
We talk about the dieoff in Africa every so often, and I believe its bound to happen and may have already begun. But are failed trade policies exacerbating the situation? Perhaps we should just cut Africa off - for better or worse - and let nature take its course.
That means eliminating any unfair hindrances to agricultural development, including our subsides, and abandoning food aid programs. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: Mar 04, 2006 Posts: 269 Location: La Crosse, Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:44 pm Post subject: Re: Unconfirmed food rationing in America
Pops wrote:
elocs wrote:
This is the same stuff I have read here for years and years...
Of course then you have attempted to head some of the advice and have a little pantry for times the trucks don't show - otherwise why do you read here?
Well, actually, this site is spectacular inasmuch as I will get an email notice to a thread I was following sometimes years ago. I have not really read too much here for a long time, but I see not much has changed since Y2K. I have a pantry because occasionally here in the winter in Wisconsin we have what are known as "blizzards" and I like to be prepared for them. If one is always predicting that the sky will fall you may one day be right, but you will miss many beautiful days. I prefer to temper speculative fear with common sense.
Now to change these options. I'll check back in a few years, but I doubt much will have changed with the end always just around the corner. _________________ "No matter where you go, there you are."
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: Re: Ffood rationing in America
Riots and protests over rice and cooking oil have been seen around the world lately. This is a good indicator of things to come. Rice isn't exported much. Most stays in the country of origin. US long grain rice is quite the prize around the world. As global supplies dwindle, farmers might be more likely to try and export to get more money rather than sell at home.
Just in time models of stocking and distribution are beginning to break down due to high fuel prices. WalMart may have 5000 pallets of rice on trucks but is having trouble getting it to the 10,000 stores that need it.
I think this is the way it begins. Small mentions of restrictions or shortages. Soon, gaps on the shelves of the stores. "Don't worry, people. There will be more soon." Only the next shipment is smaller and more expensive. A new normalcy of occasional shortages and higher prices will set in.
As the slope continues, people find ways of coping. Buying more when products are in stock. Bartering with their neighbors. Nothing to panic about, it's just the way things are. No notice of the fact that some of the basics have no become difficult to obtain.
At some point, the rice stops showing up. Crop failure. It's all going to China to help balance our trade deficit. Whatever. We'll find something else to eat. And so it goes. _________________ Civilization is a personal choice.
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1239 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
MrBean wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DIE.
Yes and I can hear without you shouting your pain out. And people are dying now, and selling their organs and kids to get next meal. And evolution is not a survival story but a tale of 99,9 percent of species that have habited Earth have gone extinct, it's not a tale of winners but of losers.
well this is just plainly not true. Species rarely( ok, not often ) just desappear, they generally evolve into something else or get absorbed genetically by a fellow specie. Do you think worms you got your symmetricity from are around here still? I dont think so. However, to call them extinct entirely is not correct, till the last symmetric creature lives.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Yes DOOM is coming.
I can't wait till we get offered the opportunity to go strafe people in 3rd world countries for a few months a year and get paid for it while we steal their food/resources.
Seriously though, I'm tired of this fake society where everyone pretends to be nice. Now that everyone starts to feel the DOOM the gloves come off and all bets are off. Lock and load baby. Food riots in your major metropolitan city within the next 6 months.
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:42 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
dorlomin wrote:
I read one account today suggesting that the current spike in prices and drop in availability in rice is in part due to China buying up supplies to stockpile it. The hypothisis is that it cannot use its dollar hoard to buy blue chip companies in the US so it will use its depreciating dollars to buy and hoard food and other storable items.
Curiously I remember an article on Bloomberg where Japan stated it was to increase its wheat reserves.
Apparently only 7% of the world rice gets internationaly traded. Most is consumed within the producer country so the removal of relatively small amounts can have large consaquencies for price.
I don't mean to come off as a valiant defender of China, but their intentions may not be evil.
The Chinese government a few years back abandoned its policy of self-subsistence in all agricultural commodities. The rationale is that since they are trying to feed 20 percent of the world's population on 8 percent of the arable, they should abandon some land-intensive crops. That allows them to focus on labor-intensive crops like fruit and processed food so that they take advantage of the low wages that have helped them become and industrial powerhouse.
However, now that some countries have put a moratorium on rice exports, that raises the spectre of other countries restricting or banning exports of other agricultural commodities, possibly shutting down global trade in agricultural commodities altogether. If that global market shuts down, then China will be unable to purchase the grains that it needs.
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land. That means returning to planting land-intensive grains (they do grow wheat in northern China, by the way) despite the consequences. However, if the global market shuts down quickly, there won't be enough time to grow the necessary grains. One doesn't simply grow tens or hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops over night.
Simply put, they may be stockpiling commodities in anticipation of a global shutdown in soft commodities trading to act as a bridge while returning to self-sufficiency, or as much self-sufficiency as they can achieve. That may have a horrible effect on global commodities prices now, but they're just acting in their own self-interest like every other nation. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1239 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:51 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Jack wrote:
Contrast this with a more practical approach. Act as if you feel empathy toward those who can advance your agenda. Then there is something that might be gained. Or, act as if you feel empathy in order to disarm another's mental defenses. But the operative concept is emulation rather than experiencing the actual emotion.
I believe you'll find I'm right.
Jack , there are should be at least somebody you feel your empathy for? I don't know, fellow stamp collectors, childhood friends, whatever? Baby giraffe, some 500+ years old oak, your favorite teacher ( writer? ) may be a rare cichlid from the Malawi lake? Anything?
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
First, to deal with the current digression:
The ability to have any given emotional state is normally distributed through the population ("normally distributed" = "follows a normal curve" which is to say, a "bell-shaped curve"). That is, for every emotional state there are some people who have it a lot, some who have it a little, and most are in between. This is easy to see with regard to obvious ones such as fear where the range is from little or no fear (fearlessness) to much fear (cowardice), and happiness where the range is from misery (little happiness) to joy (much happiness).
It's also true of empathy and other more complex emotions. It should not be surprising that some people here have them a lot, some have them a little, and most are in between.
That being said, all reinforcing feedback situations are inherently unstable, and limiting feedback is necessary for stability. In biological terms, stability is homeostasis, and this also works in natural ecosystems, and it also works in social ecosystems. The entire premise of representative government is negative or limiting feedback: checks and balances. Without checks and balances, tyranny quickly sets in.
Empathy is a limiting feedback system. Humans are hardwired for self-interest, extended to their kin however defined. If you run self-interest in the reinforcing feedback mode without limiting feedback, the result is something along the lines of Somalia or Iraq: the war of all against all, and a spiraling rundown of the local carrying capacity (e.g. Iraqis sabotaging their own electricity grid).
If you add empathy as a check and balance, the result is a more stable culture and thus one that is better able to utilize available carrying capacity without a spiraling rundown. This is an inherently more resilient outcome than the case where self-interest runs in reinforcing feedback mode without limit.
===
And now on to the subject of famine and pestilence.
Perversely enough, shifting food into fuel may be better for the long range survival of the human species.
On one hand, it leads to a reduction in carbon emissions compared to not doing so, thereby taking a small but not insignificant bite out of the climate crisis.
On the other hand it leads to starvation, thereby taking a small but not insignificant bite out of overpopulation.
Of course we could achieve each of those goals via more humane measures, e.g. shifting to nuclear and renewable power sources, and providing widespread access to subsidized contraception and family planning education.
But what is happening at this point is a clear illustration of an unavoidable fact of our times: The longer we wait, the fewer the options remain available. To the extent we do not muster the will to use the more humane options while we can, the less humane measures will occur whether we choose them or not.
---
In another discussion in another forum, it was mentioned that one of the people quoted in a news story about starvation in Haiti was a woman with EIGHTEEN children.
Further along in the discussion, someone who is living in Haiti explained that the local culture values children to the point where women who don't have any by a certain age are socially scorned, and large families are equated to social status and happiness. That is a perfect example of a runaway positive feedback system: Cultural memes that favor overpopulation and thereby produce a society that at best is unstable and at worst is in a continual state of Malthusian crash.
And lest we think we're that much smarter than people in Haiti, we have our own version of this. It's called economic growth.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
FreakOil wrote:
...
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land.
....
well not exactly...
The Philippines is actually the world's greatest importer of rice. Hard to believe huh? You'd think it should be China. Anyways the Chinese are sitting on $1.6 Trillion US dollars of currency reserves. They can always outbid the Philippines for that last bushel of rice.
You can always buy what you want with money. You don't have to produce the product yourself. Furthermore this may sound mean but speaking purely in economic terms it might be more profitable to import the rice, If those labor intensive crops like fruit generate enough money.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2740 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Glenn Beck (whatever you think of him) is telling people to stock up in case of shortages.
Glenn Beck.Com _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"What I try, may not work. It may be ineffective. It might even turn out in the pages of history to be the exact wrong thing to do, but I'm going to try to do what I c
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:49 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
cube wrote:
FreakOil wrote:
...
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land.
....
well not exactly...
The Philippines is actually the world's greatest importer of rice. Hard to believe huh? You'd think it should be China. Anyways the Chinese are sitting on $1.6 Trillion US dollars of currency reserves. They can always outbid the Philippines for that last bushel of rice.
You can always buy what you want with money. You don't have to produce the product yourself. Furthermore this may sound mean but speaking purely in economic terms it might be more profitable to import the rice, If those labor intensive crops like fruit generate enough money.
Evidently, you didn't read my post very carefully. Try again.
Quote:
However, now that some countries have put a moratorium on rice exports, that raises the spectre of other countries restricting or banning exports of other agricultural commodities, possibly shutting down global trade in agricultural commodities altogether. If that global market shuts down, then China will be unable to purchase the grains that it needs.
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land. That means returning to planting land-intensive grains (they do grow wheat in northern China, by the way) despite the consequences. However, if the global market shuts down quickly, there won't be enough time to grow the necessary grains. One doesn't simply grow tens or hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops over night.
Simply put, they may be stockpiling commodities in anticipation of a global shutdown in soft commodities trading to act as a bridge while returning to self-sufficiency, or as much self-sufficiency as they can achieve. That may have a horrible effect on global commodities prices now, but they're just acting in their own self-interest like every other nation.
The global commodities trade will shut down eventually, and all countries will have to feed their populace on what they can grow on their own. At some point in the future, there will be no bushels of rice on the international market because there will be no international market. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:50 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
cube wrote:
FreakOil wrote:
...
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land.
....
well not exactly...
The Philippines is actually the world's greatest importer of rice. Hard to believe huh? You'd think it should be China. Anyways the Chinese are sitting on $1.6 Trillion US dollars of currency reserves. They can always outbid the Philippines for that last bushel of rice.
You can always buy what you want with money. You don't have to produce the product yourself. Furthermore this may sound mean but speaking purely in economic terms it might be more profitable to import the rice, If those labor intensive crops like fruit generate enough money.
Evidently, you didn't read my post very carefully. Try again.
Quote:
However, now that some countries have put a moratorium on rice exports, that raises the spectre of other countries restricting or banning exports of other agricultural commodities, possibly shutting down global trade in agricultural commodities altogether. If that global market shuts down, then China will be unable to purchase the grains that it needs.
Like all countries, China will eventually have to grow its own crops on its own land. That means returning to planting land-intensive grains (they do grow wheat in northern China, by the way) despite the consequences. However, if the global market shuts down quickly, there won't be enough time to grow the necessary grains. One doesn't simply grow tens or hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops over night.
Simply put, they may be stockpiling commodities in anticipation of a global shutdown in soft commodities trading to act as a bridge while returning to self-sufficiency, or as much self-sufficiency as they can achieve. That may have a horrible effect on global commodities prices now, but they're just acting in their own self-interest like every other nation.
The global commodities trade will shut down eventually, and all countries will have to feed their populace on what they can grow on their own. At some point in the future, there will be no bushels of rice on the international market because there will be no international market. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 148 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 3:12 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
35Kas wrote:
Seriously though, I'm tired of this fake society where everyone pretends to be nice. Now that everyone starts to feel the DOOM the gloves come off and all bets are off. Lock and load baby. Food riots in your major metropolitan city within the next 6 months.
I know what you mean and i agree. But i'd still rather have everyone pretending to be nice than being the assholes they really are and start creating chaos everywhere. _________________ The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.
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