We are entering the stage where ideology and education about sustainability and living within carrying capacity will be augmented by the reality of identifiable consequences of our overshoot. External consequences like the peaking and decline of below ground energy and commodity resources, above ground environmental degradation of our climate, soils, fisheries and climate will have a profound effect on our culture.
2009 is the year when we start to feel it.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Best of Pros and Cons
I'm trying to even out my attitude, but not having much luck.
So, I'm going to ask the opinion of others on Peak Oil--both pro and con.
What do you think the best arguments are FOR Peak Oil?
Who do you think the most credible proponents of PO theory are?
Who do you think are the least credible?
Conversely....
Who do you think offers the best argument against Peak Oil?
Just asking. I'm still pretty convinced. The evidence seems to be mounting in one direction. Still, I just want to ask others more familiar with the topic.
This isn't to say I'm not looking on my own. I've gotten a little obsiessive lately (not my norm, btw). I'm a little worried about the state of my own mental affairs for it.
Nevertheless, I hope no one minds me asking. I just want to see what you think.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13876 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:25 pm Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
Not sure what you're asking... by "con" do you mean not believing in the peak in oil production - that oil will continue to be produced at greater and greater amounts forever?
Most geologists are pretty sure oil is finite. That's the best argument for peak oil, that oil is a finite resource. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
Ludi wrote:
Not sure what you're asking... by "con" do you mean not believing in the peak in oil production - that oil will continue to be produced at greater and greater amounts forever?
Most geologists are pretty sure oil is finite. That's the best argument for peak oil, that oil is a finite resource.
I suppose I should have said the "for and against"...actually, I'm not quite sure how to word it.
Sorry about that. I'm trying to get a feeling for the topic. I know some people believe Global Warming, some don't. I'm trying to understand both sides of the argument. Of course, in saying that, I realize that the other side of finite is pretty untenable given the fact oil is not infinite.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 451 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
Among those who support the idea of a near term peak in oil supplies, some of the best work I've found online has been posted over at theoildrum.com. WestTexas, Kebab, Robert Rapier on the heavy lifting science side. These are the guys you can thank for the "Export Land Model", which shows that exports from producers will decline faster than overall production. I've heard this mentioned once or twice in more mainstream outlets with no credit.
Matthew Simmons has great "establishment" credentials and his work Twilight in the Desert" remains a critical piece on PO.
For entertainment, direct folks to James Howard Kunstler. I find his writing acerbic and entertaining, but he ticks off alot of people. Some of his ideas are genuinely useful, however. Some of his predictions, less so.
As for "less credible supporters of PO", I'd say Mike Ruppert, which is a shame, because he was out there before anyone else on it, but his opinions on 911 will alienate mainstream critics of PO. His 'From the Wilderness' site was required reading for a long time.
As for those who would debunk Peak Oil, I have no idea who's credible. Anyone who mentions abiotic oil is instantly discredited, as is anyone who thinks we can grow enough biofuel to keep things going as is.
Hope this helps get things started. I'm sure everyone has an opinion and I haven't even mentioned half the people who's opinions I value. _________________ TANSTAAFL
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
benzoil wrote:
Among those who support the idea of a near term peak in oil supplies, some of the best work I've found online has been posted over at theoildrum.com. WestTexas, Kebab, Robert Rapier on the heavy lifting science side. These are the guys you can thank for the "Export Land Model", which shows that exports from producers will decline faster than overall production. I've heard this mentioned once or twice in more mainstream outlets with no credit.
Matthew Simmons has great "establishment" credentials and his work Twilight in the Desert" remains a critical piece on PO.
For entertainment, direct folks to James Howard Kunstler. I find his writing acerbic and entertaining, but he ticks off alot of people. Some of his ideas are genuinely useful, however. Some of his predictions, less so.
As for "less credible supporters of PO", I'd say Mike Ruppert, which is a shame, because he was out there before anyone else on it, but his opinions on 911 will alienate mainstream critics of PO. His 'From the Wilderness' site was required reading for a long time.
As for those who would debunk Peak Oil, I have no idea who's credible. Anyone who mentions abiotic oil is instantly discredited, as is anyone who thinks we can grow enough biofuel to keep things going as is.
Hope this helps get things started. I'm sure everyone has an opinion and I haven't even mentioned half the people who's opinions I value.
So glad to hear that actually. I saw Mike Ruppert's take on 9/11 and my sense of peak oil faltered. I went into "check and make sure you're not losing it" mode.
I'm not nuts about Kunstler, either. I liked "the end of suburbia" (to an extent, I felt talked down to a bit as well--not crazy about that). Kunstler seems a little on the wacky side. I like the idea of a return to simpler times, but he comes off as, well, not someone I'd want leading my town to self sufficiency LOL.
Simmons, Deffeyes, they seem like people worth taking seriously...with the credentials to back it up.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 451 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:06 am Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
Remember not to confuse researchers with popularizers. Kunstler doesn't have the credentials of Deffeyes, but his book, "The Long Emergency", was my first intro to the topic of Peak Oil. Ruppert might be a bit out there, but his website was my first intro to Dimitri Orlov, who's writings about the collapse of the Soviet Union I find quite interesting.
As for "End of Suburbia", I still find it a decent intro to the topic of PO. I fell asleep during "A Crude Awakening". _________________ TANSTAAFL
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
benzoil wrote:
Remember not to confuse researchers with popularizers. Kunstler doesn't have the credentials of Deffeyes, but his book, "The Long Emergency", was my first intro to the topic of Peak Oil. Ruppert might be a bit out there, but his website was my first intro to Dimitri Orlov, who's writings about the collapse of the Soviet Union I find quite interesting.
As for "End of Suburbia", I still find it a decent intro to the topic of PO. I fell asleep during "A Crude Awakening".
I've seen the collapse of the Soviet Union material, too. It is very interesting (to say the least). I find a lot of the LATOC interesting, but some of it veers too much into paranoia for my taste.
That said, just because you're crazy doesn't mean they're NOT after you...as the saying goes.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1645 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Best of Pros and Cons
Every oil field undergoes a peak then a decline. The US as a nation experienced peak oil in 1970, after which time we've had to import more and more oil.
When we can't pump any greater flow as a planet, the global oil production will go into decline as well. Only problem is there's nowhere left to import it from. _________________ Conservation is conservative
efarmer wrote:
"Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"
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