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Peakoil.com :: View topic - why is the value of the dollar going up recently
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why is the value of the dollar going up recently

 
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:40 pm    Post subject: why is the value of the dollar going up recently Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The US is forcing Iraq to trade oil in Dollars again and deposit the dollars with the fed. Don't expect the rally to last log, in the past three days big institutions, Russia, and maybe even China unloaded large amounts of US dollar.


"The Iraqi central bank has built up five billion dollars in reserves in recent months which have been deposited with the US Federal Reserve, a top US treasury official said Tuesday."

http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/newsbyid.asp?id=20833

There is talk that Russia is moving towards petro-euro, any news?
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bruin
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:51 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The dollar is also helped by Bush proposing cut backs to spending. Also, Greenspan indicated at least 3 more interest rate hikes to 3.25%.
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Pops
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:10 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I agree, it is our new budget: forget education, veterans and old folks – but make sure the tax cuts for the 99.9th percentile become permanent.
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MarkL
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:16 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

..

Last edited by MarkL on Sat Aug 25, 2007 1:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:23 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MarkL wrote:
This is probably another reason why the dollar stopped its slide.

The Financial Times link has rolled over into their archieves and requires registration but the quote from the article gives the idea.


Yes this is a very good article.


"The dollar is also helped by Bush proposing cut backs to spending"
Even if he gets the budget through as is, it will tack on a $427 billion + $80 billion more (maybe even more with his social security plan and Medicare drug benefits packet).

I highly doubt he will get it through with out some more pork being added on. Bottom line we can expect at least a $550billion extra tacked on the budget deficit.


Just look at go:

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
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smiley
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2005 5:48 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

$7,629,245,507,947.33 on 02/10/2005
$7,379,052,696,330.32 on 09/30/2004
---------------------------------------------- -
$250,192,811,617.01

That means that Bush has managed to spend over 250 billion dollar in the first 4 months of this fiscal year! Shocked

I don't think he can keep this year's deficit under 600 billion.
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2005 6:11 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

smiley wrote:
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

$7,629,245,507,947.33 on 02/10/2005
$7,379,052,696,330.32 on 09/30/2004
---------------------------------------------- -
$250,192,811,617.01

That means that Bush has managed to spend over 250 billion dollar in the first 4 months of this fiscal year! Shocked

I don't think he can keep this year's deficit under 600 billion.


Real question is how long will the Japs and the Chinese keep bailing us out ?
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Evltre
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2005 6:13 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

maverickdoc wrote:
Real question is how long will the Japs and the Chinese keep bailing us out ?


Sooner or later they will have to cut their losses - surely they won't hang in there for ever?
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tmazanec1
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2005 10:51 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Well, it has dropped a bit the last few days, at least compared to the Euro.
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Kingcoal
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2005 12:48 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

When the losses quit being paper losses, crap hits the fan. China and Japan want the buying to continue. When Americans loose their buying power, they loose their power.

In the mean time, Europe is finding out that having lots of buying power isn't such at great thing for profitability of their companies.

Volkswagen Profit Falls on Sales Drop in China, U.S.
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 10:26 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

US net capital inflows dip to $61.3 bln in Dec cutting it real close

Quote:
WASHINGTON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Net inflows of capital into U.S. assets eased to $61.3 billion in December, in line with expectations and enough to finance the nation's current account deficit that month, a Treasury Department report showed on Tuesday.

Net inflows of capital in December slowed from a revised $89.3 billion in November that was originally reported as $81.0 billion. November's inflow was the highest level since $103.9 billion in May 2003.

Currency analysts had forecast a net inflow into U.S. assets of roughly $60 billion for December.

Financial market participants watch the report as a measure of foreigners' appetite for U.S. assets.

The United States depends on foreign investors buying U.S. assets like Treasury bonds to finance its current account deficit, and so net inflows short of the deficit could have increased selling pressure on the dollar.

The dollar initially recovered some losses against the euro on the news that December's flows would have been just enough to offset the $56.4 billion monthly U.S. trade deficit in the last month of 2004.


http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh01367_2005-02-15_15-35-18_n15469638_newsml
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 8:40 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

maybe I should change the name of this thread

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh26800_2005-02-22_13-13-54_l22106073_newsml

1.30 to 1.32+ over night!!!

Hold on folks its going to get bumpy Shocked
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skateari
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 1:43 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think the dollars recent comeback is just a move by China to allow them a high price on their dollars when they sell them. China has been using its banks to trade dollars recently in order to raise the value of the dollar. This, I think, is a move to allow them to sell out of the dollar at a high price. It should also allow the world a chance to sell their dollars at minimal loss. This should all work well if it is managed and if everyone knows when to dump.

This is scary because as of the last few days, massive selloffs of the dollar has been occuring. This could mean that the dollars high-point has been reached and now the planned selloff will happen. This will be a very hard hit to the dollar as all of its supports and pegging will bail out all at once so China will only incure minimal losses.

Nows the time to buy Euros or Gold Crying or Very sad
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maverickdoc
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:57 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

One major reason people are bailing out of the dollar is because oil is getting too expensive to buy in dollars. Think about it if you hold dollars then a barrel of oil cost $51. If you hold euros it you can get it for 38.63 euros. This is because crude is universally priced in dollars and if you hold a currency like the euro that is stronger, you win because of the conversion (51/1.32) quite a bargain don't you think? You may have to finally convert your currency to dollars (and take a conversion risk) but you still come out way ahead. Iran currently accepts Euro so it’s even better no conversion risk.

As the price of oil goes up the value of dollar will go down
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pea-jay
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 2:40 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Looks like some of our Asian creditors are "reexamining" their dollar holdings. S. Korea wants to diversify their holdings. Watch out for falling dollar (values).
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