Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6613 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
mmasters, I don't see how you can characterize the inflation we're having as "mild." Except perhaps in relation to the inflation that is coming. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:33 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jdumars wrote:
My personal fear is that we'll go into increased sectoral hyperinflation and large-scale deflation. For example, the upper-middle and rich classes clawing over land and commodities while most other people are struggling to buy a loaf of bread.
more & more cheap used stuff on Craigslist. with some
popular commodities going up & up. _________________ http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4838 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
pedalling_faster wrote:
jdumars wrote:
My personal fear is that we'll go into increased sectoral hyperinflation and large-scale deflation. For example, the upper-middle and rich classes clawing over land and commodities while most other people are struggling to buy a loaf of bread.
more & more cheap used stuff on Craigslist. with some
popular commodities going up & up.
People are selling stuff in order to raise some extra cash for gas and food.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1747 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
It's not the money that's printed. It's when they bring up someone's account screen and type in $500,000,000.00 and then say, "there ya go". _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Gerben wrote:
I was one of many people who expected the current decline of the dollar. Still I do not expect hyperinflation. Rising inflation will reduce the real value of the US national debt since the US debt is in dollars. Most (all?) countries that experienced high inflation had debts in foreign currency. The US can just stop printing after it balances its budget and walk out with hardly any debt.
In a nutshell what you're saying is we don't have to take financial responsibility for our actions in life.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
I don't see how anyone can think we are going to have deflation, When I think about the future YES, I can see deflation,,,, Right after we have continued inflation, panic from the wealthy as they all hoard like crazy when they finally wake up,, causing massive/hyper inflation. Inturn kicking off the greater depression, panic, hunger, and so on. And then, and only then when everyone figures out they don't need a cellphone, digital cable, a car pmt. high speed internet, insurance on everthing, and all the other great stuff.
Then we will see deflation. But what do I know
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
sittinguy wrote:
I don't see how anyone can think we are going to have deflation, When I think about the future YES, I can see deflation,,,, Right after we have continued inflation, panic from the wealthy as they all hoard like crazy when they finally wake up,, causing massive/hyper inflation. Inturn kicking off the greater depression, panic, hunger, and so on. And then, and only then when everyone figures out they don't need a cellphone, digital cable, a car pmt. high speed internet, insurance on everthing, and all the other great stuff.
Then we will see deflation. But what do I know
Read about the Japanse crash in 1990. The situation is very similar.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
mkwin wrote:
Read about the Japanse crash in 1990. The situation is very similar.
I've done a little reading about the Japanese deflation and that made me only more skeptical of the claims that we're headed for one.
My understanding is that in Japan, several decades of positive trade balance created an overly strong yen. Their central bank didn't act quickly enough to soften the yen and that kicked off the deflation cycle.
The US hasn't had a positive trade balance since what? The 1960's? Our dollar is at an all time low. I don't get how that leads into a deflationary cycle. I agree that we are headed for recession, but the government is one of the most massive debtors in our country. They control the money supply, and there will be huge pressures on them to expand it, because deflation makes their debt problems that much worse. Seems to me we're headed head long into stagflation. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:26 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is what the country owes in total, is the real bugger, is closing in on 10 Trillion (that's a T) and climbing rapidly.
Actually, we've payed it already, give or take, via running the printing presses at WOT, aka inflating the money supply. The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
This isn't any surprise of course. The administration's largest tax cuts were for the wealthiest Americans, the occupation of Iraq is incredibly expensive, both in terms of direct expenditures, ie money to keep the troops there and supplied as well as indirect expenses such as paying disabled veterans for the rest of their lives and destabilizing the ME. The Ethanol subsidies/tariffs have done little to ween us off of foreign oil since the tax loophole for luxury SUVs/killing CA's ZEV mandate significantly increased consumption, but have insured rocketing corn prices, and as a result profit. We've seen similar in many different areas IMO.
We've gone from physical to political raids on the treasury. Same crap different dance. After this administration, we'll likely elect a democrat, and the national debt will probably slow down by the end of their two or three terms, just like it did during Clinton's administration, and after those terms, we'll see another media blitz from very concerned corporate interests regarding some purely semantic equivalent to gay marriage, and then we'll see another "conservative" term or three with similar fiscal policies. The only significant question IMO is whether we're seeing good cop/bad cop or the American public is just that dumb. _________________
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:05 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Will the Fed increase the money supply, endlessly, to overcome the stark problems facing the econmy and its banking cohorts?
Yes, because its the only thing it really knows how to do.
One can ask what if another Paul Volcker comes around. But, back then, 1980, America did not face the stark reality that so many of its homes were mortgaged to the breaking point. Today, a doubling of interest rates would put maybe millions of families on the street. Those people would not make good voters.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:42 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
smallpoxgirl wrote:
mkwin wrote:
Read about the Japanse crash in 1990. The situation is very similar.
I've done a little reading about the Japanese deflation and that made me only more skeptical of the claims that we're headed for one.
My understanding is that in Japan, several decades of positive trade balance created an overly strong yen. Their central bank didn't act quickly enough to soften the yen and that kicked off the deflation cycle.
The US hasn't had a positive trade balance since what? The 1960's? Our dollar is at an all time low. I don't get how that leads into a deflationary cycle. I agree that we are headed for recession, but the government is one of the most massive debtors in our country. They control the money supply, and there will be huge pressures on them to expand it, because deflation makes their debt problems that much worse. Seems to me we're headed head long into stagflation.
The Yen nosedived because of a collpase in very high levels of debt, real estate and other asset prices. The value of capital destroyed due to failing real estate and other asset values caused a deflationary spiral.
Just as money expantion creates inflation. money destruction, in the form of bad debt and falling asset values, creates deflation and begins a deflationary spiral. This is what happened in the great depression also. Real estate values are still only 75% of what they were at their peak in 1990. Just imagine the quantity of capital destroyed in the form of mortgages. Imagine what will happen to the US banking system if houseprices don't stop failing. You won't be able to get credit for anything because the banks will be insolvant.
Bernake fears this the most, hence him throwing everything he can at the problem to try and advert it.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:04 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Denny wrote:
Will the Fed increase the money supply, endlessly, to overcome the stark problems facing the econmy and its banking cohorts?
Yes, because its the only thing it really knows how to do.
I wouldn't go that far. Just because something is policy at some point in time does not mean it will always be policy given whatever outcome the Fed, and/or who they're getting instructions from, seek. As well as practical limitations on stuff like interest rate cuts, etc... For instance, according to the all knowing Wikipedia...
Quote:
The dilemma for the Federal Reserve in regulating the money supply is that lowering interest rates to slow price declines in one asset class, e.g. real estate, may cause prices in other asset classes to rise, e.g. commodities.
And since the interest rates can only be cut so much, clearly there is a limit to what the Fed can do to prop up housing prices if it wanted to. At the end of Clinton's administration the dollar was at 110 and national debt was leveling out at around six trillion. During Bush's administration it started climbing again and is at around 9.3 trillion as of now. The dollar has fallen thanks to an increase in the money supply, likely to pay off the more than three trillion in debt, to the low seventies. Since historically we don't continue spending excessively with all administrations, and tend to spend/save, I doubt we will continue to inflate the money supply to the point where the dollar collapses unless we literally spend ourselves into oblivion. _________________
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Heineken wrote:
Howard Ruff is kinda kooky, but the guy he's quoting isn't. (That "Shadow Stats" newsletter looks interesting.)
Hyperinflation created the Nazis and the biggest war the world has ever seen. God knows what it'll do today.
After much hesitation, I am seriously, seriously considering liquidating my 401(k) and converting it to precious metals or land. 10% early withdrawal penalty be damned.
Had one followed Ruff's advice since the 70s they would be markedly poorer for it today. Talk about a broken clock? Sure this time may be different. But I am also looking to purchase land, so I would not rule this out. Just for other reasons. Flight from the uncertainty of financial assets into physical ones that I hope will keep their value while generating future income streams.
Quote:
Julie Jason, president of Stamford, Connecticut-based Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers, said borrowing from a 401(k) is risky because if you lose your job and default on payments, you end paying both taxes and penalties. "It's even riskier given the job market right now," she said.
Most 401(k) fund withdrawals carry a minimum 10 percent penalty fee and are subject to immediate income taxes. If you borrow from your 401(k) and default on the loan, then the same penalty fee and tax liability apply.
Jason gave an example of a 45-year-old male who borrows $50,000 from his 401(k), then defaults. Apart from taxes, if he "does a little time travel to age 75 and looks back" he would see he has lost $500,000, assuming an historical 8 percent average 401(k) annual gain. "In short, he loses big time."
Source: Middle class taps nest eggs to keep homes _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:11 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
MrBill wrote:
Jason gave an example of a 45-year-old male who borrows $50,000 from his 401(k), then defaults. Apart from taxes, if he "does a little time travel to age 75 and looks back" he would see he has lost $500,000, assuming an historical 8 percent average 401(k) annual gain. "In short, he loses big time."
The 401k is fully protected in a BK. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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