Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3371 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 5:46 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Look at this NOAA graph, atmospheric Methane has plateaud from 1999 onward through 2006. Massive melting of Permafrost and hertofor permanent Arctic ice regions took place from 2002 to 2006 WITH NO DISCERNABLE INCREASE!
NOAA _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:24 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Tanada wrote:
Look at this NOAA graph, atmospheric Methane has plateaud from 1999 onward through 2006. Massive melting of Permafrost and hertofor permanent Arctic ice regions took place from 2002 to 2006 WITH NO DISCERNABLE INCREASE!
Actually, given its short 7 year atomospheric half-life (it gets broken down into CO2) it isn't surprising that it would plateau as it has. it needs a sustained higher emission rate to maintain that plateau. The threat posed by methane is from sudden massive releases which cause a sudden spike in temperatues and kick off rapid feedbacks.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 623 Location: No man's land
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 7:23 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Tanada wrote:
Look at this NOAA graph, atmospheric Methane has plateaud from 1999 onward through 2006. Massive melting of Permafrost and hertofor permanent Arctic ice regions took place from 2002 to 2006 WITH NO DISCERNABLE INCREASE!
Looks to me like that graph only charts global methane levels through 2004. _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3371 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
billg wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Look at this NOAA graph, atmospheric Methane has plateaud from 1999 onward through 2006. Massive melting of Permafrost and hertofor permanent Arctic ice regions took place from 2002 to 2006 WITH NO DISCERNABLE INCREASE!
Looks to me like that graph only charts global methane levels through 2004.
For all the doubting thomas's and thomasina's out there who think I am just gloming on to denialist data on Methane.
Look at this NOAA page, you have four graphs at the bottom showing the main GHG concentrations from 1978 to 2007.
CO2, [UP], NOx [UP], CH4 [UP until 1999 then plateau], CHC-11 [UP until 1994, gradual decline since then], CFC-12 [UP until 2000 then plateau]
Four graphs at bottom
I don't make it up when I object to emotional articles about climate change, I actually look for data and see what the data says. I ask that you all do the same, because constantly yelling the sky is falling is counter productive unless the sky is actually falling!
_________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Even though a lot of people continue to deny that we are changing the earth's climate for the worst, I think a time will come where (in addition to just coping with the aftermath) the earth's scientists will be putting all their effort into trying to actively terraform earth back into a viable state.
According the above site there has been a spike in atmospheric methane at the Barrow, Alaska observatory in the last year or so...so now we have at least two locations where possible signs of the bursting methane bubble have been detected. _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
While it is interesting to note that methane concentrations have begun to rise again, I do not believe temperatures are high enough to trigger massive a release of hydrates. I would suspect from the historical record that at least another +1.5C of warming could occur before we would have to start worrying about this. The Emmian (the last interglacial) had temperatures about that warm, and we can be pretty sure no mass hydrate release occurred since no major spike in temperatures happened.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 623 Location: No man's land
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Dan1195 wrote:
While it is interesting to note that methane concentrations have begun to rise again, I do not believe temperatures are high enough to trigger massive a release of hydrates. I would suspect from the historical record that at least another +1.5C of warming could occur before we would have to start worrying about this. The Emmian (the last interglacial) had temperatures about that warm, and we can be pretty sure no mass hydrate release occurred since no major spike in temperatures happened.
Not so, ocean temps are far more critical than air temperatures as far as maintaing a lid on the methane hydrates. Ocean temps in the Arctic are running about 3.5 degrees C above average. All the ice off of Siberia is 1st year ice and will melt off easily this summer. Ocean currents are shifting as the Gulf Stream brings more warm water into the Arctic ocean from the Atlantic. Perilous situation indeed.
Excerpt from Speigel's Methane Melt article:
Quote:
"A Wake-Up Call for Science"
Data from offshore drilling in the region, studied by experts at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), also suggest that the situation has grown critical. AWI's results show that permafrost in the flat shelf is perilously close to thawing. Three to 12 kilometers from the coast, the temperature of sea sediment was -1 to -1.5 degrees Celsius, just below freezing. Permafrost on land, though, was as cold as -12.4 degrees Celsius. "That's a drastic difference and the best proof of a critical thermal status of the submarine permafrost," said Shakhova.
Paul Overduin, a geophysicist at AWI, agreed. "She's right," he said. "Changes are far more likely to occur on the sea shelf than on land."
Climate change could give an additional push to these trends. "If the Arctic Sea ice continues to recede and the shelf becomes ice-free for extended periods, then the water in these flat areas will get much warmer," said Overduin. That could lead to a situation in which the temperature of the sea sediment rises above freezing, which would thaw the permafrost.
"We don't have any data on that -- those are just suspicions," the Canadian scientist said. Natalia Shakhova also passed on the question of whether to expect a gradual gas emission or an abrupt burst of large quantities of methane. "No one can say right now whether that will take years, decades or hundreds of years," she said. But one cannot rule out sudden methane emissions. They could happen at "any time."
_________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Drake wrote:
Well, since Methane is so badass it would actually be smarter to burn it into CO2
It is smart to burn it, but then you are still outputting CO2 which was the original problem. So in that sense the methane hydrates are just another untapped fossil fuel with the same problems as oil and as far as we can tell no utilization process that has a EROEI greater than 1. I know a guy who develops methane generators from manure. It is a great idea in that context because there is a closed cycle from plant to feed to manure ot methane to CO2 to plant and so on. So you can keep the net impact small. There are hurdles, like energy efficiency of the process related to the type of turbines you want to use and the type you have to use. And of course there is the time dependent aspect. By ramping up methane from other sources we might on some time frame actually increase total CO2 emissions in the short term if other sources are not drawn back. We cannot use these alternative to fuel more growth.
Hydrates however do not offer that closed cycle, they are another non-renewable resource that would produce CO2 when burned.
That said methane is 20 times more potent as a greenhouse gas and the last I heard many of the climatologist see that as the sleeping tiger. If we tip into the threshhold of a reinforcing methane (from tundra and hydrate) melt we could go beyond worst case climate scenarios in less than a decade. It is a real concern.
There is a place in the ocean off of South America where there is a methane seep. It's pretty cool actually, but then you think about what it means. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Last edited by Gandalf_the_White on Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Tanada wrote:
billg wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Look at this NOAA graph, atmospheric Methane has plateaud from 1999 onward through 2006. Massive melting of Permafrost and hertofor permanent Arctic ice regions took place from 2002 to 2006 WITH NO DISCERNABLE INCREASE!
Looks to me like that graph only charts global methane levels through 2004.
For all the doubting thomas's and thomasina's out there who think I am just gloming on to denialist data on Methane.
Look at this NOAA page, you have four graphs at the bottom showing the main GHG concentrations from 1978 to 2007.
CO2, [UP], NOx [UP], CH4 [UP until 1999 then plateau], CHC-11 [UP until 1994, gradual decline since then], CFC-12 [UP until 2000 then plateau]
Four graphs at bottom
I don't make it up when I object to emotional articles about climate change, I actually look for data and see what the data says. I ask that you all do the same, because constantly yelling the sky is falling is counter productive unless the sky is actually falling!
nice graphs. That CO2 graph looks like a sky dropper to me, no signs that the trend is abating. However, the methane graph does not signal a reduction of the risk from the methane resources in the tundra and hydrates. The trend could be due to efforts to reduce methane production from industrial and agricultural sources, the new time dependent baseline is not established. We could see a concave down pattern give way to the underlying tundra/ice pattern which other data suggests is increasing by the year. you like data so let me go get it. I don't have it on tap but the Siberian Tundra has been releasing more each summer.
When looking at graphs we have to remember that climate is a non-linear system. Even CO2 could start levelling off soon as the system approches a new stability regime. That is unlikely but it is possible. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 623 Location: No man's land
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Dan1195 wrote:
Unfortunately we have little or no information regarding ocean circulation or arctic sea temperatures during the Emmian AFAIK.
Below are some articles that point to changes in Arctic ocean circulation and explore the trigger mechanism for these changes. Combined with the major reduction of albedo due to Arctic ice disappearance off Northern Asia, submarine methane hydrates are facing a double whammy. Last summer 2007, average sea-surface temperature in the Arctic ran 1.5*C over the previous high, and 3.5*C over the historical average (Geotimes). Change is happening fast.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1161 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
The amount of two key greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere rose sharply in 2007, and carbon dioxide levels this year are literally off the chart, the US government reported.
In its annual index of greenhouse gas emissions, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found atmospheric carbon dioxide, the primary driver of global climate change, rose by 0.6 per cent, or 19 billion tonnes last year.
The amount of methane increased by 0.5 per cent, or 27 million tonnes, after nearly a decade of little or no change, according preliminary figures to scientists at the government's Earth System Research Laboratory in Colorado.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4387 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Cid_Yama wrote:
The amount of two key greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere rose sharply in 2007, and carbon dioxide levels this year are literally off the chart, the US government reported.
In its annual index of greenhouse gas emissions, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found atmospheric carbon dioxide, the primary driver of global climate change, rose by 0.6 per cent, or 19 billion tonnes last year.
The amount of methane increased by 0.5 per cent, or 27 million tonnes, after nearly a decade of little or no change, according preliminary figures to scientists at the government's Earth System Research Laboratory in Colorado.
Show me a 5 year upward march of methane levels and I'll get concerned.
But the past couple decades show a leveling out of methane levels, not upward movement.
Moreover, .5% is a rounding error for that graph. We would need sustained 1%+ year over year increases to have a real trendline.
CO2 is indisputable because it rises every year at a pretty steady clip. The same is not true for methane right now. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
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