Will we still be flying in 10 years?

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 868

The airlines seem to be having a tough time even with the relatively low fuel prices. What will happen when things really start to skyrocket?

Will the average Joe or Jane still be flying 10 years from now?

DomusAlbion

I haven't flown since 2000 but that was more a philosophic decision and hatred for stuffed in a can flying conditions. My wife is flying to Seattle today for some big psychiatrists mucky muck conference. She commented this morning that this is probably the last time she will fly.

People will still be flying in 10 years, but mostly the very wealthy.
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misterno

greyhound will be more popular like in 3rd world countries

You can travel with bus anywhere in US for less than $100 I believe

I wonder why bus is cheaper than airplane.

vision-master

frankthetank

I hate flying. I love taking off and climbing, but once up there its boring and stupid Smile

I'd rather drive or not go at all.

Yes. People will still be flying 50 years from now. I'm pretty sure the upper crust of society will have their personal stash of jet fuel replenished by private oil wells around the world. I'm guessing flying will become even more popular in the future for this class due to the safety (vs driving and getting run off the road mad max style). Look at Brazil....they all fly helicopters.

If i was wealthy i'd buy an old oil platform and live on it with a helicopter/high speed boat. I'd also have a pod of dolphins and a school of sharks.
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Ferretlover · Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:54 am; edited 1 time in total

I don't think that the common consumer will be able to afford to fly.
And, the other day, I was thinking that with all the current restrictions (TSA, full body xray machines, unlocked luggage-did you see the story about the increase in TSA bag handlers stealing?-the "RealID" card-without it, you won't be allowed to fly-databases being used to accumulate information before flight approval, etc.,... Gosh, it almost seems as though the government is intentially putting up roadblocks to discourage flying, or keep the consumer's attention elsewhere...
Since there exists nothing to take the place of aviation fuel, it would seem to me that the military is going to start claiming more authority over reserves.
Of course, I could be wrong-but, I don't think so!
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AWPrime

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 868

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

heroineworshipper

Pakistan & Iran will B flying robots. US will be broke, having exhausted the treasury on a human army.
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LocalFutureGrandRapids · Coal Joined: Apr 08, 2008 Posts: 10 Location: grand rapids

Watching all the troubles with the airlines I doubt it. Not for vacations and regular business travel. There are other ways and types of flying besides commercial jet liners. So yeah, we could still be hang gliding or riding thermal updrafts and human powered flight. If you want to get technical there is a solar powered airplane made by Paul MacCready. http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/176

(MOST amazing website I have ever seen besides this one!! I'm now addicted)

Yes we will still fly, but not in the same ways. Lately I keep having this thought. If I could take one last flight anywhere in the world, where would I go?

Tyler_JC

There will always be commercial airlines.

But there will not always be dozens of airlines offering $100 tickets to Orlando from New York several times per day.

It all comes down to price.

Are you willing to pay $200 for that ticket? $400? $1000?

At some point, most consumers will drop out of the market and supply will equal demand.

Airlines are extremely reluctant to raise tickets because Expedia and Travelocity make consumers fully aware of which airline offers the cheapest tickets.

Unfortunately, many of the cheap flights are actually net losers for the airlines.

This can't go on forever. Higher fuel prices will force all airlines to raise ticket prices to a more reasonable level in the near future.
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WisJim

There was an interesting program on Wisconsin Public Radio the other day, don't recall the time or the day or I would try to find a link, that discussed airlines and costs for a bit. The guest pointed out that airline tickets haven't kept up with inflation at all, and that travel by air is a real bargain, since prices haven't gone up much if at all in decades. Another instance of reality catching up with a business.

canis_lupus

Welcome, GR!

I think commercial air travel will be with us a ways: companies need to send people places.

However, I think cheap flights and short-haul flights are going to go away, making cheap vacations a thing of the past.

I do agree with the poster above that the military will always have all the fuel they need to the last drop. Maybe not for things like airshows and war games but I think they'll never do without.

I hope they bring back regional rail. Here in the Midwest, we're seeing things like the proposed rail line between Chicago and Dubuque, IA which is great. Further, ridership is up year over year. The problem is Amtrak doesn't ever get the funding it needs.

There are thousands of miles of abandoned rail beds here in the US...

lper100km

Probably, though most likely only if you are privileged or wealthy, which amounts to the same thing, or military, government or business vip.

At the present rate of crude price escalation, I would expect airline travel to be severely impacted well before ten years. Many low cost air lines are already feeling the pinch and some have folded. The national carriers will last longest and those that aren’t national carriers now will likely become govt. subsidized as flagship bearers.

Some possible consequences:-

Good for homeland security. No more huge line ups at airports processing people from abroad. And people won’t be as free to move around the country either, as visitors or residents.

Extremely bad for tourism. However, locals will be able to enjoy the beauty of their home towns without traffic jams, noisy bars open til 3am etc etc.

Good for disease control. Less ability for the spread of non indigenous micro critters from exotic places like chicken coops in Thailand.

Good for passenger shipping lines, trans Atlantic, trans Pacific etc. Probably not so good for cruise lines – a dispensable luxury. Maybe the return of the four masted clippers that you only see on whisky labels today.

Bad news for UPS, USPS, Amazon and eBay.

Good news for Amtrak

Bad news for LD trucking

Bad news for Maine lobster gourmands in San Francisco

The economy by then? – don’t ask!