Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: Re: Food rationing in America
BigTex wrote:
When the herd bolts, many doomers will wonder why they didn't have more of the simple stuff on hand--plywood, toilet paper, bottled drinking water, bottled distilled water, quality water filter, hand siphon pump, baby formula, diapers, ammo, BATTERIES, camp fuel, Sta-bil fuel stabilizer, Stanley thermos, sardines, tuna, soup, sugar, coffee, coffee filters, DC powered fans, pet food, N95 respirators, safety glasses and goggles, POLICE/FIRE SCANNER, vinegar, wet wipes (need a lot of those if water is turned off), alcohol, bandages, latex and leather work gloves, antacid, five gallon buckets, extension cords, multi-stage battery charger, a good quality inverter...everyone knows the list.
Get a good quality five gallon safety can for gas and keep it full and in your garage. Keep you vehicles full of gas too.
Remember this rhyme
And really think it through
Do not let "just in time"
Be the zombie that gets YOU
(Even if NOTHING happens, being stocked and prepared is good.)
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
Nano wrote:
Prices will most certainly come down form the current highs.
I can't see how this is possible... at this point as long as the price of oil continues to climb, and as the dollar falls downward (a sure sign of inflation).
The prices of food today are by no means "highs". Why would the price of food fall and stabilize at a lower price over the mid-term while gas will more than likely hit $4 a gallon, and the price of oil is hovering around $118 a barrel, continuing on a remorseless climb?
For your outlook to be accurate we should at the very least see a dramatic plunge in the oil price, a rally in the dollar, a decrease in the price of gas/fuel/jet fuel, all at the same time. If all the fuel prices were to magically freeze at their current levels, I would wager that even then food prices would still increase to a higher equilibrium price.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6497 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
raisinbran wrote:
I can't see how this is possible...
The demand destruction in US consumption of everything escalates. Emerging market incomes fall instead of rise.
Ethanol subsidies are discontinued.
US$ rises in value.
Global depression.
People eat less.
People die.
I can see lots of ways, but what do I know? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4527 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: More food shortages, Japan is out of butter
Alright, fair enough.
I shouldn't have taken us off topic in the first place.
jlw61 is right. Dependence on imports makes Japan vulnerable to big price swings.
Unfortunately, Japan is already densely populated and only about 15% of the land is suitable for agriculture. Yields are already among the highest in the world and the vast majority of the arable land is currently being used...so I don't see Japan's agricultural output leading upward any time soon.
The best they can hope for is a continued surplus in the United States and other friendly nations that can be bought on the open market.
Japan's declining population should make the situation a little better in the longer term but unless they can figure out a way to improve the domestic food supply, they will always be at the mercy of foreign producers. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
Pops wrote:
raisinbran wrote:
I can't see how this is possible...
The demand destruction in US consumption of everything escalates. Emerging market incomes fall instead of rise.
Ethanol subsidies are discontinued.
US$ rises in value.
Global depression.
People eat less.
People die.
I can see lots of ways, but what do I know?
I don't know why people keep on thinking food is expensive. Here's the price of wheat for the past 37 years.
the red line is in constant dollars
the blue line is inflation adjusted dollars
I'm not saying I have a crystal ball. I'm just saying anything can happen.
The other person's opinion just might be closer to the truth then yours...or maybe not. but what do I know?
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: More food shortages, Japan is out of butter
Tyler_JC wrote:
Alright, fair enough.
I shouldn't have taken us off topic in the first place.
jlw61 is right. Dependence on imports makes Japan vulnerable to big price swings.
Unfortunately, Japan is already densely populated and only about 15% of the land is suitable for agriculture. Yields are already among the highest in the world and the vast majority of the arable land is currently being used...so I don't see Japan's agricultural output leading upward any time soon.
The best they can hope for is a continued surplus in the United States and other friendly nations that can be bought on the open market.
Japan's declining population should make the situation a little better in the longer term but unless they can figure out a way to improve the domestic food supply, they will always be at the mercy of foreign producers.
Further up the thread I posted an article that discussed the glut of Dairy products that Japan had a couple of years ago where they were pouring milk down the drain and culling cattle because of an overabundance of dairy products. I guess they over did it and got caught with their pants down. Things sure changed alot in a matter of two years. _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: More food shortages, Japan is out of butter
Tyler_JC wrote:
unless they can figure out a way to improve the domestic food supply, they will always be at the mercy of foreign producers.
More "scientific research" into whales is one course to take. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
Ferretlover wrote:
Notice when that last spike in wheat was?
Not to disparage anybody who "lost" back then.....but that's nothing more than a pleasant walk in the park compared to what's going to happen next. I don't remember there being a world food crisis / riot back then.
2nd I don't know why so many people think recession == drop in commodity prices. I've got one word for them stagflation.
We're going back to the 70's folks.
– Beginning stocks lowest since 1982
– Stocks to decline 13 MMT this year, lowest level in 30 years
– Stocks in 5 major exporters to end year 27% (10 MMT) lower than 2006/07
I'm getting tired of repeating myself, I propose these various threads be merged. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
