Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5201 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
AMBAC accuses Bear Stearns of fraud:
Quote:
Ambac: Deteriorating Bonds Could Be A Sign Of Fraud
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 23, 2008 3:24 p.m.
By Lavonne Kuykendall
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) has hired outside legal and forensic experts to examine 17 of its financial guarantee transactions and may seek to cancel the contracts if the experts uncover evidence of fraud, David Wallis, Ambac's chief risk officer, said Wednesday.
He singled out two specific transactions as examples of the type of transaction that is under scrutiny and said the company was taking a two-pronged approach to examining transactions that have performed much worse than expected.
One way, "difficult and time-consuming," is going through the securities loan by loan, which Wallis said the company is doing.
The second "grander theory" approach is "not loan by loan, but a more grand scale fraudulent inducement."
One transaction that has performed below expectations is a deal with Bear Stearns Co. (BSC) that closed in April 2007.
On its Web site, Ambac lists three Bear deals under the 2007-1 name, with a total net par exposure of $790.6 million in second mortgages and home equity lines of credit as of the end of March. Originally, all three were rated A+ but are all considered below investment grade now, Ambac said.
Ambac originally projected that losses on the underlying collateral of the Bear Stearns transaction would be between 10% and 12%, but now expects losses of 81.8% of underlying collateral, a transaction that has seen an unexpectedly "rapid escalation of losses."
Some of the factors the company will examine include loan-level document review and a review of legal documents "focusing on representations and warranties," Wallis said. "Hypotheses are being built which involve fraudulent activity in various guises."
"If they can demonstrate there was fraud, they don't pay" is the general legal standard for such contracts, Gregory Hindy, a partner with Newark law firm McCarter & English LLP told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.
Hindy said that such lawsuits in the bond insurance industry are rare but that he expects to see more of them in coming months.
To get out of a contract, the insurer would have to make the case that "had these been accurately described," the insurer would not have entered the contract.
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 759 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Yeah it's about the same here. My wife says the price of everything is going crazy in the stores. Pasta that we usually bought for about 99 cents on sale, 1.09 normal is selling for 1.69. That's a 55% increase. And she says that's like that on everything. I noticed that NewCastle beer (my favorite) has gone up about 2 bucks a 12 pack, a buck & a half a six pack. This is just within the past month or so. Eggs are about $2, they've gone up 100% in about 1.5 years.
I know this to be true because I do all our budgeting so I get all the receipts, and I'm shocked at how little food you get for the money anymore. _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
However, I think the prize must go to this quote (note that this is from a bank executive and not someone here on PO.com):
Quote:
"In this crisis, a number of times people have seen a light at the end of the tunnel and it has ended up being a train coming down the tracks," said Brady Dougan, chief executive of Credit Suisse.
_________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:17 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
jdmartin wrote:
Yeah it's about the same here. My wife says the price of everything is going crazy in the stores. Pasta that we usually bought for about 99 cents on sale, 1.09 normal is selling for 1.69. That's a 55% increase. And she says that's like that on everything. I noticed that NewCastle beer (my favorite) has gone up about 2 bucks a 12 pack, a buck & a half a six pack. This is just within the past month or so. Eggs are about $2, they've gone up 100% in about 1.5 years.
I know this to be true because I do all our budgeting so I get all the receipts, and I'm shocked at how little food you get for the money anymore.
Food prices are killing me too as well, but when in history have people paid about 18% of their income for food!? We are still producing/consuming cheap food in the west.
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 759 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
hironegro wrote:
Food prices are killing me too as well, but when in history have people paid about 18% of their income for food!? We are still producing/consuming cheap food in the west.
Oh I don't disagree with that. Still, when you see food prices jumping 50% in a couple of months on a lot of items not only does it make a dent, it makes for some serious concern as well. _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Dantes Quoted: Ambac originally projected that losses on the underlying collateral of the Bear Stearns transaction would be between 10% and 12%, but now expects losses at 81.8% of underlying collateral,
HOLY SPIT!
And the litigation to follow...MAN that ain't good! _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 10:13 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
More great news from new home sales...
▪ New home sales come in much weaker than expected - 526k vs. 577k expected
▪ 11 month inventory unsold (highest in 27 years)
▪ Sales down 36.6% YOY
New home sales plunge 8.5% to 17-year low in March - MarketWatch _________________ “I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death.” George Carlin
Phew! Looks like we're just about to see a housing bonanza! Million-dollar flips everywhere! Every man a king! Disaster averted! (do I sound like a commentator yet ?) _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Here we go again...Round 2 just getting warmed up.
Quote:
Moody’s Investors Service issued more Alt-A downgrades on Thursday morning, this time taking a heavy hand to 32 different Aaa-rated tranches from 10 different Alt-A deals. Many of the downgrades even pushed former Aaa’s into non-investment grade categories
Talk about rubbing salt in the wound. Not only have you lost your job to China, your home to a European bank and your wife to your neighbor. Now some Indian guy who can barely speak English is going to call you twice a week and hassle you for your pocket change.
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