I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
Food shortages causing riots. Political threats of holding back arms for oil. Airlines losing billions because of fuel costs. Trucking companies protesting. Local food movements rising in popularity. Housing and economy in a severe recession. Oil approaching $120 and gas is on average $3.50 a gallon.
Are all these indicators that the "Long Emergency" has begun? My point being is is this a temporary trough, and gas will go back down during an economic recovery period in a year or two and the true Long Emergency is many years away.
Or is this truly the beginning? Curious to hear your opinions.
Last edited by JBoulder on Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
She argues that the fast crash vs. slow grind question has been resolved. We're now in a fast crash. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:07 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
Quote:
truly the beginning
Welcome to PO.com JBoulder.
Those of us who remember the oil crisis of 1973-74, and/or the Iranian Revolution oil crisis of 1979-80, realize that we are just scratching the surface. There are a couple of good threads of historical recollections on this website someplace, which you can use the archive to dig up.
Anyway, this stuff is nothing compared to that.
People are bitching, and there are some system stresses right now, but this still hasn't changed the actual behavior of 95% of the suburbanites that I am around.
Joined: Mar 23, 2005 Posts: 183 Location: Norwood, NY
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
I have to agree with pup55, what we're seeing now is primarily the result of stupidity, not peak oil. The U. S. dollar has taken a huge hit as a result of the U. S. housing industry troubles. Thus the price of oil and food appears to be going off the charts. This "crisis" is born of greed and stupidity of those in the credit and housing industries. Lots of folks looking to get rich quick, usually by dumping risky investments and loans in someone else's lap. When that little pyramid scheme came tumbling down, those holding the property and loans lost their shirts. When the investors start losing, everyone pays. They pay for the perception of economic weakness, not necessarily any real economic weakness. I believe we'll see a period of adjustment, and then some recovery. As the dollar regains some of its value, more oil can be purchased per dollar, and the price of oil will seem to go down.
I really haven't seen any behavioral changes in the way people drive, or much else for that matter. The U.S. still has some of the cheapest oil in the world, and all the crying really doesn't reflect what's really going on. The car still gets used just as much, and the tank gets filled just as often.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6972 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
Welcome JB.
Always the optimist, I'm thinkin the next year or two is just an appetizer for folks in the rich world.
Bumpy plateaus have bumps after all.
Pup and Leanan are both more knowledgeable than me but I think we still have a lot of fat to burn, lots of demand to destruct and lots of options to turn to yet.
The long emergency started a while ago and though the very best time to prepare might be past, any today is better than some vauge tomorrow to start planning and preparing.
As usual, I recommend the Five Rules thread in the Planing For The Future forum. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
The financial crisis that has hit the US housing market is a red herring. That was driven by greed and stupidity.
There is an underlying oil crisis that has much more serious implications.
As oil prices go up everything else goes up with it.
The price of fertiliser has doubled in the last couple of years. Not only has this impacted on food prices but it now makes food production in some third world nations problematical ... and this problem won't go away. Like oil prices, fertiliser prices will never significantly drop back in price.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
Welcome.
I agree with pup55 and kokoda.
We haven't seen hardly anything yet, but what's coming is going to hit our economy like a tsunami. I am fairly convinced we will see some type of energy product shortages within one year. But that's only for openers. When we have permanent disruptions to supplies in about two years, things will become chaotic. It will probably take a year or two for the effects to exceed the worst parts of the 1970s energy problems.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
I agree with Pops that this is the training wheels season but
that it is going to penetrate the public consciousness by
economic impact and make a whole lot more people PO
aware. I have had many folks in my town talking about
how the "people on TV" say everything is fine but seeing
the direct impact on their accustomed lifestyle telling them
it definitely is not. They are looking around for better info.
Remember when you became PO aware and were in the
digging for better information and cross checking yourself
to be sure you weren't just spooked?
You are being joined by a few million more this year.
That being said, most people will do what they are doing
until they can't anymore, and then they won't and then
they will get pissed, sad, and finally busy.
The newbies are coming! The newbies are coming!
Let's be as patient and kind to them as the sage
pioneers on this site have been to all of us.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:39 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
We haven't hit the "Long Emergency".......yet.
I think the first "clue" will come when the 3rd world completely collapses and there's either an attempt at a mass migration or some type of Rwanda massacre but multiple by 1000 fold. Once that happens the first world will be forced into action.
Even at this point Joe Sixpack will still be able to afford to idle his car at the local McDonald's drive through but the cost to the 1st world to put a "band aid" on the 3rd world's problem will be astronomical.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
the "long emergency" as coined by JH Kunstler does not have an "on/off" quality to it, much like Peak Oil Itself.
IOW, you don't go to bed one night with everything rosey posey, then wake up the next morning with the world on fire and rotting corpses piled 8 stories high.
but I believe that we HAVE been seeing the indications that TLE is underway.
The Iraq "war" is a great example. Rising prices, shortages of commodities and riots over same...
Plus, environmental issues, which Kunstler includes in the discussion.
I am not running around screaming, but I am conducting my life as though it was "game on" right now. I am using less of everything, developing new skill sets, and, I think most importantly, I am prepared mentally.
When I initially educated myself on this subject, I had about a week or two of serious moping and worrying, then snapped out of it and decided to prepare for reality rather than try to wish it away.
It is beginning slowly, but, to borrow a phrase from Gil Scot Heron, the Long Emergeny WILL put you in the Driver's Seat!
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
I have mixed feelings that the long emergency is here.
Facts that make me think that it is here are 1) that India and China now are serious consumers of oil (as compared to 25 years ago) and that means much more competition for oil and 2) we are 25 years further along with consumption than we were in the 1980's when the previous oil shock hit. Thirdly, there are a lot more people on the earth than there were 25 years ago.
I have one fact aginst this being the long emergency. In the 1990's the price of oil was so low that not only was there very limited exploration and drilling for new supplies but even a lot of maintenance was delayed. Also a lot of expansion work in refineries was put off as well. As a parallel to this, I have invested in a lot of natural gas wells in PA, during the mid-late 1990's we were selling nat gas for $1.80 at one point and just hoping not to lose too much money. Once the price came back we started drilling more wells. We may see the same thing with oil supplies, with higher prices in the last few years, increased drilling world wide might work to depress or at least stablilize prices for a few years.
With all of that in mind, if you think of previous oil shocks as consisting of shock then recovery, if there is a recovery after this shock, it will probaly be the last recovery. So what I'm saying is that if this is not the long emergency, the next oil shock will almost certainly signal the long emergency.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
truly the beginning
People are bitching, and there are some system stresses right now, but this still hasn't changed the actual behavior of 95% of the suburbanites that I am around.
We have the tiger by the tail, we CAN'T let go and all hell is going to break loose soon
When the subject turns to sustainability...lets be honest, we only pay it lip service.
We talk of living in a sustainable world, yet our actions betray our true feelings. All we have to do is to look at the stock market to see what happens when growth declines even a little.
Even if a company yields stable earning, but does not grow its earnings it is looked down upon. Stability and balance is part of a sustainable footprint, yet we shun such balance.
A good book that discusses concepts of sustainability is: 'Peak Everything' by Richard Heinberg
America is built on debt and spending.
Without compulsive spending and conspicuous consumption we would fail as a country.
70% of our 'economic heath,' better termed as 'economic sickness' is based on consumer spending. When the consumer can't compulsively spend any longer our economy collapses...we are not a healthy country.
China on the other hand is built on selling its output not only to its countries citizens but the entire world...especially the USA. America has become the bitch of China.
With one breath we talk about cutting global warming and how we have to cut our dependence of fossil fuel.
Then with the next breath we demand no cut backs in our standard of living, we must spend and consume above all else...build more, build faster, build bigger.
The GDP must only go up, up and away...all the while this consumption just increases global warming and keeps depleting the fossil fuels faster and faster. Sick...sick..sick mentality, buy more cars, build more houses and monstrosities of architecture, spend more but 'cut back' to save our dear fossil fuels.
And leading the pack of over consumers is the USA.
Consumption is ingrained in us and we know no other way. And even if we wished to amend our ways, how could all our retirement funds take the hit?
Our world population has grown to levels where it has passed the point of no return for supporting a sustainable human population as we know it today when it comes to their energy demands.
And what does all that consumerism lead to?
It leads to the mess we are in now and the bigger mess the world will be in once India and China pick up momentum to copycat the envious lifestyle that they have held in high esteem as the 'American Dream'
The problem is not with the earth having enough land for all its people - the problem is with earth providing ad infinitum for all the needs the people crave.
The more people born, the more heat is produced from their life and all their cravings, As such, the warmer and more polluted the earth gets and the more energy they all use and the earths resources are depleted.
Fueling the problem of consumption is the games the Federal and World banks play with interest rates. They manage the economies in ways to fuel consumption and mask the real trend.
Witness the recent cries for Federal bankers to lower interest rates...so the stock market can go up...fueled by spending of the consumer.
It is drug habit that Greenspan got us hooked on and we just can't get away from.
Our economy is not based on sustainable health - it is based low interest credit to encourage compulsive spending, debt and living a life of constant consumption with a 'disposable mentality' when it comes to durable goods.
All this consumption to artificially fuel our economy to make our retirement funds only go up contributes to more and more global warming and the depletion of our natural resources.
Then the governments juggle the numbers to make the inflation figures seem artificially low, so everyone's retirement portfolio will make them happy so they will continue to buy and consume more...and on it goes....IT IS ALL WE KNOW and the bill is coming due soon!
Is the LE here or just starting?
Well, I'd say look for signposts that will answer your question.
Such as...widespread US civil unrest, never ending gas rations, commercial airlines have shut down, widespread unemployment, REAL food shortages*, trucks having trouble making deliveries to Walmart do to lack of diesel, widespread power outages, people freezing to death because of heating oil and NG shortages, gold and silver in the stratosphere and the like.
...no, we are not there yet.
* Re:: real food shortages. Rice has been in the news lately as a commodity in short supply. I was at a couple of Sams Clubs in the OH / PA area yesterday. While they said they were limiting purchases to 200 pounds a day they had 2 pallets of 50 pound sacks of rice sitting there. No doubt there may be shortages of rice in high Hispanic and oriental populations. But this is localized. Real food shortages are empty shelves day after day all over the US of A!
You still have some valuable time left to prepare for what awaits you down the road.
We are in the 'Indian Summer'. Don't wait until the winter sets in to start work on your preparedness efforts.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6972 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
TreeFarmer wrote:
I have mixed feelings that the long emergency is here.
Let me add a few things to both of your lists if I might.
On the doom side:
First, discoveries have declined since the 60's - even though the '70's and I'm just guessing but there must have been some exploration going on somewhere that might hint to places to look in the current climate.
Second, I haven't seen a whole lot of expansion in the infrastructure downstream of the fields again even in the current price climate - no capacity to refine and deliver means no more supply - not to mention the ever increasing costs of developing that infrastructure.
Third the previous spikes were political and this isn't.
On the Con side:
There are a bunch of people I mean, demand, yet to destruct.
BTW, you gotta be smiling at the price if mineral rights in PA right now! _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: Is the "Long Emergency" Here?
cube wrote:
We haven't hit the "Long Emergency".......yet.
I think the first "clue" will come when the 3rd world completely collapses and there's either an attempt at a mass migration or some type of Rwanda massacre but multiple by 1000 fold. Once that happens the first world will be forced into action.
Even at this point Joe Sixpack will still be able to afford to idle his car at the local McDonald's drive through but the cost to the 1st world to put a "band aid" on the 3rd world's problem will be astronomical.
Well, much of the 3rd world is used to hard times.
In the US of a we are all pussies so to speak and do not like to rough it.
It will hit us VERY hard since we are spoiled.
We have been on drugs, living an artificial life and our steroid of crude oil is drying up.
Get this dvd from your library. It will clue you in the a taste of what is in our future.
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