I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: just a quick question
The trick to making the "intentional depletion" strategy work is waste.
We must not only use as much oil as possible, but also in the most inefficient fashion. By squandering our oil resources, we may avoid more potent consequences later on.
The longer we employ oil to grow our economy larger & larger, the worse the eventual fall will become.
Therefore, the more oil we squander now, the less we will suffer in the future. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: just a quick question
I have been harping to my family about Peak Oil for some
years, but have toned it way down for harmony in the
efarmer bungalow. Recently my wife has picked up the
signs and is asking me questions and remembering
earlier comments I made about the trends that would
mark the start of the consequences. She finally said
that it looked like I got lucky and got something right,
and that since it is of so much importance, that she
would be taking over the Peak Oil issue for the family
and I should immediately begin working on my new
problem, the drastic decline that takes place
when Peak Oil hits the efarmer bungalow and brings
on the unstoppable consequences of Peak Sex, when
the demand forever outstrips the supply and the cost
and difficulty of extraction begins to implement demand
destruction.
It's Springtime, and I am finding myself in the cold shower
and chanting: "Come on demand destruction, Come on
demand destruction."
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: just a quick question
pauly76 wrote:
Why on this board does it seem that people are joyous for the fact of price of oil going up on the market?
We are joyous because we can watch humans that never learned to live in balance get whacked upside their heads with an aluminum baseball bat. You are one of those humans.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 10:57 pm Post subject: Re: just a quick question
efarmer wrote:
I have been harping to my family about Peak Oil for some
years, but have toned it way down for harmony in the
efarmer bungalow. Recently my wife has picked up the
signs and is asking me questions and remembering
earlier comments I made about the trends that would
mark the start of the consequences. She finally said
that it looked like I got lucky and got something right,
and that since it is of so much importance, that she
would be taking over the Peak Oil issue for the family
and I should immediately begin working on my new
problem, the drastic decline that takes place
when Peak Oil hits the efarmer bungalow and brings
on the unstoppable consequences of Peak Sex, when
the demand forever outstrips the supply and the cost
and difficulty of extraction begins to implement demand
destruction.
It's Springtime, and I am finding myself in the cold shower
and chanting: "Come on demand destruction, Come on
demand destruction."
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: Re: just a quick question
pauly76 wrote:
Why on this board does it seem that people are joyous for the fact of price of oil going up on the market? When it is all a conspericy with the enviornmentalist and the oil companies to keep production low, so there is a higher demand and keeping supplies low. I don't understand the enviornmental movement because they fall right into the trap that oil companies want low production= higher profits in result killing the little guys at the pump! If what this website belives is true that there is a limited supply in the ground then I say to fight fire with fire. Let them depleat all the sources 30 years from now they will have to close shop and by that time we should have many alternatives , but for the time being the carbon footprints will add up until one day there will be nothing left in the ground. My solution DIG EVERYWHERE
Philosophers have saying...'the contemplative life finds its joy in discovering truth.' So, it is natural that people like to see they are thinking in the right direction by having their speculations unfold as they projected them to unfold.
In the case of the peak oil devotees, if they are right there will be much pain coming humanities way in the near future. This projected pain is not a source of joy for PO'ers, but being in a position to prepare for what is ahead can yield us some comfort. And we can also derive comfort by trying to inform others to prepare.
Personally, I am not happy about PO, but I accept it as our future. I would much rather like to keep sucking down the crude, running my jet ski, dirt bikes, RV and not have to worry about gas rationing and fuel costs to go skiing, kayaking and mountain biking.
The top 3 users of crude are the US, China and Japan.
They consume almost 12 billion barrels of crude a year ( 11,987,330,000 barrels) .
Collectively the world uses 30 billion barrels of oil a year (31,015,410,000)
If the PO skeptics think the supply of fossil fuel is limitless and we can keep on burning billions upon billions of barrels a year of crude forever, then they are sadly mistaken.
No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years....but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate
The fact that 'we have to estimate' reserves or useful life of anything says that the item in question does not have an infinite supply or life span.
Now with the useful life of the sun, the end is so far off few give it any thought...except the astro brainiacs.
Even though this was written a few years ago and it is based on 'current production and consumption' and is biassed from the coal producers point of view, it gives the same haunting message to the generations to come.
We may not see the end of our free flowing energy as we know it - but some of our descendants will in the not so distant future. This is the legacy they will inherit from us.
Now when decisions have to be made mistakes can and will happen. This is the nature of imperfect humans. But we still must give it an honest effort at finding truth the best we can if we wish to be at peace with the subject.
I never argue with persons claiming that we have peaked already or others that claim the peak is 20 years away. To me they are both on the same page, just looking at different sentences.
But the person that thinks that we can go on forever and ever and never have to pay the bill with the eventual depletion of fossil fuels is just plain wrong.
"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan
You bring up alternative energy replacements for crude.
Even if we did find out how to burn water for energy, petrochemicals make up a large portion of crude's importance to mankind. Roughly 9% of every barrel of crude goes to petrochemical use. If we stopped burning crude this instant, we would still suck the wells dry, albeit not as quickly, just from petrochemical use.
Some work has been done with making plastics from corn, but it can't touch the variety of plastic and rubber products that crude produces.
So even if we all stop driving we will just be postponing the inevitable that our artificial way of living is going to change in the not so distant future.
From this list we can see that we are still massively depend on crude for our non sustainable lifestyle.
There is no replacement for crude...crude is in the details of our life.
We got other problems right in line with peak oil. NG and crude are right in bed with each other.
Have you ever thought about how much of our life is dependent on natural gas for cooking, heating and hot water?
How many of our homes are set up for efficient heating with natural methods such as wood, pellet, passive solar?
My house is not.
I never gave this subject any thought until I learned about peak natural gas. And by then it was too late.
My house is as far as it can be from the 'ideal house' that can be heated my natural methods. And to make maters worse, I live in the NE US, where it gets plenty cold.
Do you know that much of your life is dependent on natural gas outside its use as an energy source?
We will run out of natural gas, just as we deplete our crude supplies in the near future.
Natural gas is a raw material in many of our products we depend on.
Almost all the helium we produce comes from natural gas.
Propane, synthetic fertilizers, ammonia?
They are totally dependent on natural gas.
Our population boom was fueled by synthetic fertilizers made from natural; gas. Once the gas dries up so does the fertilizer and a shortage of fertilizer equals a shortage of food.
Natural; gas is also used as an energy source to produce steel, glass, paper, clothing, brick, electricity
No, sucking down the crude and NG as fas as we can pump it is not the answer.
No doubt some of the increase in crude is due to greed, speculation and hype. And, it may all be true that what we have been told about peak oil is in fact a hoax.
Same as the skeptics that claim global warming is a hoax.
It may all be a conspiracy, just a cruel trick on the consumer to line the pockets of industry with more money...only time will settle this debate
But I always tell the proponents saying peak oil is a conspiracy and think that we have an unlimited amount of oil, natural gas, coal, uranium...actions speak louder than words.
We can look at Hubbert's prediction of the USA's peak.
We can look at the trend in drilling to see how deep we have to go to find oil. How many big finds are being made?
We can look at the quality of crude being produced.
Is it light sweet crude or high sulfur, heavy, hard to refine crude?
The light sweet is just that 'light' and is on the surface of the oil pool. Whereas the less desirable heavy sulfated crude is on the bottom of the pool. Does the phrase hitting the bottom the barrel mean anything to you?
Lately we have been putting much of our hope in the tar sands of Canada.
When we have to get the oil out of the sand and shale it sounds like we are hitting the bottom of the barrel again. Even talk about getting our gas from refining bitumen coal.
Now, some people say we are saving the light sweet crude for national defense and using the foreign oil and tar sands first. I don't know, I have no inside information about that claim.
We get about 15% of our natural gas from Canada. That 15% amounts to 50% of the natural gas Canada produces. The US sucks down more energy than any other country...no one can come close to us.
Our demands for natural gas are on the rise, just as our demands are for all fossil fuels. Once demand outstrips production we are headed over Hubert's peak in any number of areas besides crude. We can see peak production issues in natural gas, uranium, food or water, just as we will see with crude oil.
It is an easy task to see how much oil is produced in the world. But finding the 'exact peak date' for world oil production is hard to pinpoint. (see peak oil section)
For one thing, some countries production are erratic and they are not transparent with their real production and discovery data.
Also oil production is not an exact science and still requires a little luck. We may find a lucky hit down the road that brings in a gusher to distort some of the figures.
Check out:
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
It is a well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields and the exaggerated claims of remaining crude reserves of Saudi Arabia.
I guess the die hard skeptic will still be saying we got plenty of oil as masses of people die from riots or from freezing to death or from starvation and still cling to the notion that its all a conspiracy.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: just a quick question
Bully for you Gasmon! Not only will you get years of
commode riding service before it pinches you, but it
can be burnt for fuel when that time comes, but only
after you use it for a pattern and whittle a new one
by the light of a post peak oil light source. I knew I could
count on the Brits to recognize that plastic loo seats
are in fact a bum deal.
P.S. If you still have the old plastic one, the US government
is known to pay hundreds of dollars for toilets seats, but
you will have to forge a "Made in USA" on it somehow.
(If it is horribly broken, explain it is a "stealth technology"
type with a very low radar signature.)
It is these exact kinds of heart warming stories that inspire
hope for me after the petroleum gets too dear to use like
we have been doing. You have restored my bias towards
a bright future, and I thank you.
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