I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2731 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Quote:
We’re at the dawn of a new era. Electric cars promise to soon be ubiquitous, saving energy with their ability to plug into our power system that theoretically is more energy-efficient than directly burning fossil fuels. But keeping electrics from widespread use is today's costly and inefficient battery technology. Electric cars might be able to go fast, but still lack the convenience, economy and long range of today’s gasoline-fueled vehicles and hybrids.
Even so, innovators and entrepreneurs are undaunted, with some saying they’re about to release electric vehicles, several soon to hit the market, and others promising delivery a year or two away. Amid bickering, diving for investor dollars, upbeat press releases and unbridled controversy, the electric cars might indeed burst forth any time now. One thing’s for sure: They’re all accompanied with an explosion of innovation, creativity, gorgeous mockups and visionary talk.
The following list of Top 10 electric vehicles contains examples of cars that emphasize practicality, others that are race cars on steroids, and still others that are glorified golf carts. Even though a few on this list may not ever actually hit the American road, all are fascinating, and one may even end up in your garage before the decade is out — if you have the money and the early-adopter patience.
dvice _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
I think the Chevy Volt has the greatest sex appeal. It has that aggressive "Batman Beyond" look. If you've watched that cartoon series you'll know exactly what I'm saying.
but........there seems to be a disagreement as to what the price will be. I don't think it's going to be $30K.
This link says $48K is more realistic.
Motor Trend
Quote:
Since being unveiled at the 2007 Detroit Auto Show, GM's highly anticipated vision for a greener future has experienced battery problems and delayed release dates, but until now the maker had been aiming for a $30,000 target price. However according to Lutz development costs for the Volt have been far higher than expected, and a price of $48,000 might be more realistic.
Call me pessimistic but I think the final price will be $60K (cheapest possible) when they actually get to producing these things.
Last edited by cube on Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:34 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
cube wrote:
Call me pessimistic but I think the final price will be $60K (cheapest possible) when they actually get to producing these things.
Hey, just in time for 8 & 10-year auto loans. In a nation concerned with monthly payments, $60k may well be doable if the collateral (this being an electric car and all) can be expected to hold value through the duration of its note. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4751 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
emersonbiggins wrote:
cube wrote:
Call me pessimistic but I think the final price will be $60K (cheapest possible) when they actually get to producing these things.
Hey, just in time for 8 & 10-year auto loans. In a nation concerned with monthly payments, $60k may well be doable if the collateral (this being an electric car and all) can be expected to hold value through the duration of its note.
Joined: Jan 03, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: western Wisconsin
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
They neglected to mention what has been the most popular electric car, produced in the largest number, and with the largest number still on the road (but still not very many), the Citicar/Comutacar, ca 1975-1981.
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
WisJim wrote:
They neglected to mention what has been the most popular electric car, produced in the largest number, and with the largest number still on the road (but still not very many), the Citicar/Comutacar, ca 1975-1981...
How many of those have been built?
More than 7.000(?) City EL have been produced since 1987 and this car(?) is still sold, so it seems to be quite "successful" (for an electric vehicle)...
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Quote:
But keeping electrics from widespread use is today's costly and inefficient battery technology.
Costly? That's only because noone is mass producing electric cars. Without economies of scale enjoyed by internal combustion cars, the price for EV batteries will never be able to compete with internal combustion cars.
Argonne National Laboratories quotes $250/kWh for Li Ion if someone mass produced EVs. For a battery that lasts 500 cycles and could give a car a 250 mile range, and up to 10 years shelf life if properly cared for, cost parity even below today's gas prices may be possible.
"Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Production and Operating Costs" by Cuenca and Gaines compares the cost of a mass produced NiMH equipped EV and a comparable gasoline car on two seperate charts, and the operating costs come out even at around $1.30/gallon gasoline. UC Davis quotes $225/kWh in mass production of EVs. 1,200 cycles to 80% discharge according to Cobasys; in a 150 mile range car this would be > 144,000 miles battery life. In real life, the 100 mile range Toyota RAV4 EVs are still going strong with 150,000 miles on the original pack with no loss in range or performance yet; Southern California Edison has kept track of their RAV4 EV fleet and the number of battery module failures in millions of miles of operation can be counted on one hand.
Guess what? Chevron-Texaco had earlier gained control of the NiMH technology and it has been restricted since. The battery that allowed the Solectria Sunrise to do 373 miles in a Tour De Sol rally in 1997 is being quashed by big oil.
Inefficient? EV suitable NiMH have over 80% charging efficiency, Li Ion over 95% charging efficiency, AGM lead acids over 80% efficient, and even paltry golf cart batteries still exceed 75% efficiency.
This far exceeds the efficiency of internal combustion engines when coupled with an electric drive.
Quote:
Electric cars might be able to go fast, but still lack the convenience, economy and long range of today’s gasoline-fueled vehicles and hybrids.
Lack the convenience? This isn't true. You can wake up every morning with a "full tank" because you plugged it into your garage outlet. You don't have to wait for your engine to warm up because not only do you not have one but your ceramic heating element can produce instant heat without delay. You can have instant acceleration without any lag because you don't have to wait for fuel to be fed to the engine. There's also no need for block heaters in cold climate areas because lithium ion and NiMH batteries can operate at -40C.
Gasoline cars could never be that convenient.
Now being able to fuel up in short order, the electric car can't do. Why? It's not the batteries, or anything related to technology. It's entirely related to infrastructure. We could have fast charge stations to charge an EV in under 30 minutes. Aerovironment tested them in the 1990s, and Phoneix Motorcars today has demonstrated 10 minute charge times with the Altairnano Batteries in their SUT. Why does this infrastructure currently not exist? When Southern California Edison tried to develop it around California and along Route 66 in the 1990s, the Western States Petroleum Association found a way to get the courts to prevent them from raising the money to do so!
Economy? Yes, they do lack the 'economy' of a gasoline car because they are MUCH cheaper to run. Replenishing a 30 kWh battery pack costs about $4.00 and could take a Ford Crown Victoria-sized electric car about 100 miles.
Range? Um, EVs have been competitive with gasoline cars in range since the 1990s, if you use the right batteries. A typical gasoline powered car does between 250-500 miles per tank. EVs with modern battery technology can do this too!
The Solectria Sunrise in 1997 did a 373 mile range run during the Tour De Sol with a 30 kWh NiMH pack. This is a car that can seat 5 adults.
The Solectria Force with a NiMH pack did over 250 miles range in a Tour De Sol Rally.
The 1998 KAZ limousine built by Keio University in Japan can do about 180 miles per charge using a lithium ion battery pack.
The TZero in 2003 did 300 miles per charge driving around California using a 50 kWh lithium ion pack.
The 2004 Venturi Fetish can do 220 miles per charge using a 58 kWh lithium ion battery pack.
The 2004 Eliica made by Keio University in Japan can do 200 miles range per charge.
The 2007 Tesla Roadster prototype can do 250 miles range per charge at highway speeds using approxamately a 50 kWh lithium ion battery pack.
Today, there is no reason that a Solectria Sunrise type of car with 500 miles range couldn't be made at a reasonable price in volume(say, $35,000 with a 50 kWh pack and 150 kW drive system to command a musclecar price). _________________ The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4398 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
WisJim wrote:
They neglected to mention what has been the most popular electric car, produced in the largest number, and with the largest number still on the road (but still not very many), the Citicar/Comutacar, ca 1975-1981.
40 miles at 35mph, more or less.
If enough men drove these it would solve the population problem because they wouldn't get laid anymore.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
The_Toecutter wrote:
Costly? That's only because noone is mass producing electric cars. Without economies of scale enjoyed by internal combustion cars, the price for EV batteries will never be able to compete with internal combustion cars.
In Europe gasoline costs $6 or $7 a gallon. What's your theory as to why even with these "high" gas prices EV cars haven't caught on?
The_Toecutter wrote:
Guess what? Chevron-Texaco had earlier gained control of the NiMH technology and it has been restricted since. The battery that allowed the Solectria Sunrise to do 373 miles in a Tour De Sol rally in 1997 is being quashed by big oil.
I never was a fan of conspiracy theories. Even if big oil bought the patents that still doesn't count as a conspiracy. You can buy the patent rights for a particular type of mouse trap but that does NOT give you absolute rights to control ALL mouse traps. That is ridiculous! Anybody is welcomed to invent another YES even another NiMH battery. You cannot suppress a technology in today's age by buying patents. And if by some unusual miracle you could "suppress" a technology guess what? There are some countries that aren't very big on honoring patent law......China and basically the entire 3rd world (aka half the planet) is a good example. *cough* If this battery was as good as you say it is, there would be boot-legged versions of it, much like how there are pirated copies of Hollywood DVD movies in China 24 hours after it's released in the USA.
The_Toecutter wrote:
Inefficient? EV suitable NiMH have over 80% charging efficiency, Li Ion over 95% charging efficiency, AGM lead acids over 80% efficient, and even paltry golf cart batteries still exceed 75% efficiency.
True but......Once you add in the thermodynamic efficiency of a coal plant and energy loss in electric transmission cables, EV cars aren't really that much more efficient then ICE cars.
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