Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2646 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:04 am Post subject: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Quote:
THERE are more misunderstandings about the oil market than perhaps any other. In America, drivers are fuming and politicians are demanding explanations because petrol has hit about $3.50 a gallon. That’s 47p a litre, less than half the 105p-115p being paid by British motorists. So “high” in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Oxford, Mississippi, is “low” in similarly named cities in Britain.
Another myth: we are running out of oil. According to WorldPublic Opinion.org, “majorities in 15 of the 16 nations surveyed around the world think that oil is running out . . . only 22% on average believe that ‘enough oil will be found so that it can remain a primary source of energy for the foreseeable future’ ”. Those majorities who think we are running out of oil include 85% of the British and 76% of the American citizens polled. Luckily, they are wrong.
Production of oil is being constrained by several forces, none of them due to God’s failure to put enough of the black gold under our feet. Several countries that are important sources of supply are in political turmoil, and unable to bring to market the oil they are capable of producing. Think Nigeria, where security problems have shut down about 20% of the nation’s capacity of 2.5m barrels a day and discouraged new investment, and Iraq, where political paralysis and terrorists have kept production at less than half its potential.
Other countries will not develop the reserves of oil known to lie under their territories.
Russia has made it clear that foreigners who invest in its oil industry might be playing a game with Vladimir Putin known as heads I win, tails you lose. Find nothing and you lose your money; find substantial reserves and the state squeezes you until your shareholders’ pips squeak. Only companies at least 51% owned by Russians – read FOPs, Friends of Putin – are allowed to look for oil in the new, difficult areas in which it is to be found. Little surprise that oil output dropped in the first quarter of this year.
Mexico’s president, Felipe Calderon, wants to revive Petroleos de Mexico (Pemex), the world’s third-largest oil producer, by contracting with foreign companies to introduce modern methods of extracting more from existing fields and finding new ones. But legislation is stalled by left-wingers who have seized and are sleeping at podiums in both houses of congress.
Saudi Arabia’s royal family has announced that it will not expand capacity. Abdallah Jum’ah, chief executive of the kingdom’s oil company, said high prices didn’t mean the world needs more oil because such market signals were “imperfect”, and energy minister Ali al-Naimi has announced that there are no plans to embark on a new round of expansion. The oil is there, but with current production yielding about $120 a barrel, there is no incentive to find more, especially since new production might drive down prices as demand from the slowing American economy falls.
Venezuela’s oil industry can only be described as a mess.
timesonline _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2646 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:29 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
The New York Times' Hidden Hand On Oil's Agenda
Quote:
Ironically, last Sunday the New York Times' front page headlined " Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon's Hidden Hand". On the front page of the Week in Review section Jad Mouawad set out to instruct us that oil's future is murky ("The Big Thirst"). If ever a commentator on a given issue is freighted with prescribed points of view the New York Times' reporter Jad Mouawad would be a standout candidate for the oil patch's "golden goose" award for espousing the preprogrammed pieties that are wont to make us continue our soporific acceptance of the greatest heist, and transfer of wealth in human history. Where there are arguments to be contrived and oil patch rationalizations to excuse the heist inherent in today's oil prices or to explain them away, leave it to the New York Times and Mouwad to convey the imprimatur of what once passed for serious journalism to this greatest of all con games.
Here alone the full dimension of Mouawad's freighted reporting is laid bare. Clearly and seemingly purposefully no mention of the fact that OPEC by its own admission has held 1.2 million barrels off the market since the end of 2006 that it could readily produce. That Saudi Arabia and OPEC have turned a cold shoulder on President Bush's lame entreaties as well as that of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to produce more, not because they can't but because they wont.
And on, bringing praise and glory to the heroic efforts of the oil companies (and advertisers in the New York Times?) Exxon Mobil, BP, and Chevron by name, the Times instructs us of their selfless magnanimity that they together with the two other of the largest international oil companies ("the five largest international oil companies") had spent $100 billion on exploration last year, by implication to presumably ease our pain at the pump. Of course no mention that $100 billion after tax credits is closer to $50 billion in bottom line money, or the approximate earnings of Exxon-Mobil alone. In New York Times fashion, a nice plug for the oil companies as to what they sow, no mention of the egregious profits they reap.
yahoo _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2646 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:25 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Guys, Please the post about the film "GasHole" in this thread. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6487 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:04 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
But knowledgeable POers don't claim that "the world's oil is running out"! How many times must we say this!
It isn't about "running out." It's about production costs, supply, quality of supply, and demand. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Heineken said:
Quote:
But knowledgeable POers don't claim that "the world's oil is running out"! How many times must we say this!
4.5 trillion barrels of oil remain buried in the ground. PO is not about how much oil is in the ground, PO is about how ENERGY is in the oil! To assume that oil is oil, is like assuming a horse is a horse. There are very big horses, and then there are very small horses. We have oil fields that can deliver a lot of energy. Most fields are very small when measured in their ability to deliver energy.
Unfortunately we are running out of fields that deliver a lot of energy, and riding that little tiny pony to town is going to slow things down; considerably!
Heineken, I teach part time, both on a college and secondary level. It never ceases to amaze me how inadequately most students have been trained. I also find this true of people in general; they are often incapable of getting their heads wrapped around even the most simple of concepts. We certainly shouldn’t be surprised to find that same sort of challenged individual on a forum.
As far as, “How many times must we say this!”, if my students are any example, probably the rest of your life!!
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:06 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
TonyPrep wrote:
This is cornucopian nonsense. We will eventually have to figure out how to live within the earth's means, regardless of what people wish for.
Technically speaking, there are probably two ways to look at this. Either we always have lived within the earths means to date ( we are using what is available to us, and it doesn't matter if its stored solar and geologic waste product ( fossil fuels ) or something else, its ours, its here, and we have used it ) or we have NEVER lived within the earths means because something outside the system ( the sun ) has always provided the energy required to run the system.
I'm not sure which of those I would subscribe to without a little more thought, but it certainly is an interesting question and surely it doesn't require bashing someone for pointing out the obvious in a MSM article....to whit....there is plenty of "black gold" around, we certainly haven't used 50% of it, and the limits of production at this point in time certainly doesn't appear to be geologic in nature, but human.
None of this means said production is going to continue forever or stop tomorrow, none of this is cornocopian in nature, it just IS. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
But didn't you all know the the oil fairies will fill up all of the wells in decline. (Poof problem solved)
I hear this kind of crap all the time especially from the older generations around me telling me that magically old wells seem to be "filling back up again". Where do people get this crap? The whole idea that God put enough oil reserves there for us to burn for eternity is insane to me. I do not put much faith in humanity. We fight change so hard. Even when that change would probably be better for us in the long run.
I wander if anyone really thinks we can double our population and still live like we do today? Some people probably do. Sounds cancerous to me just like an economy that has to continually expand. When things get really bad the first thing they will try to do is crucify someone. Instead of looking at the obvious things they will look to prolong their current state of excess. Change will never come until it is forced just like people will always post crap like this until it is right in their face and they see it first hand. It is kinda like what old dubbya said.
"We are not in a recession, we are just in a slow down"
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:12 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
KillTheHumans said:
Quote:
there is plenty of "black gold" around, we certainly haven't used 50% of it,
What you are overlooking is that only about 5% of the 50 remaining is of any use to us, unless one needs to grease the wheels of their donkey pulled cart. The article completely overlooks this fact, either out of total ignorance, or a desire to sell their own agenda to the public.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:45 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Shortonoil is right, the problem isn't even the amount of oil underground, but whether it is worthwhile to get.
I don't know how the author of the lead story even came up with his conclusions. Even the most pessimistic here don't say the world is running out of oil. Where in the world could there have been a poll which says most people think the world is running of oil?
Nowhere. The article is spam, and to even discuss a falsely presented subject is spam. I'm just contributing here because there are new people at PO.com that want to find the truth.
Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 97 Location: Western Washington
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Quote:
Other countries will not develop the reserves of oil known to lie under their territories
It's statements like these that make me want to cringe - it almost feels as if this author interperts the oil situation in the way he wishes, as an excuse to beat the war drums.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 678 Location: Illinois
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Quote:
The oil is there, but with current production yielding about $120 a barrel, there is no incentive to find more
This makes no sense at all. With oil at an all time high, there is great incentive to find more oil. When oil is trading at $10 a barrel, thats when there is no incentive to find more. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
kublikhan wrote:
Quote:
The oil is there, but with current production yielding about $120 a barrel, there is no incentive to find more
This makes no sense at all. With oil at an all time high, there is great incentive to find more oil. When oil is trading at $10 a barrel, thats when there is no incentive to find more.
Would you spend $130 to get $120 worth of oil out of the ground? That's why there's no incentive to find more. We (generally) already know where the oil is located. The problem is that even at $120/bbl, a lot of that oil is not cost effective to extract. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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