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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen
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Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 8:32 am    Post subject: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

A very good, detailed article,

The Economist

Quote:
Diabetes is a useful metaphor for the Gulf's present problems. The region's economies are struggling to absorb petrodollars, accumulating like glucose in the bloodstream. The risk they face is the economic equivalent of renal failure: inflation, a hollowing-out of the non-oil sector, and a young, growing workforce in chronic need of outside labour to supplement it.

The six nations of the GCC, which also includes Qatar and Oman, earned $381 billion from their exports of oil in 2007 and another $26 billion from gas, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). If the oil price remains at about $100 a barrel, they will reap a cumulative windfall of almost $9 trillion by 2020, reckons the McKinsey Global Institute: a vast number relative to the size of the GCC economies, which had a combined GDP of $800 billion in 2007.

Not all these riches are ingested, of course. The Gulf added $215 billion to its stock of foreign assets in 2007, the IIF calculates. This hoard is divided between the region's central banks, its sovereign-wealth funds and its wealthy sovereigns. It added up to $1.8 trillion by the end of last year, by the IIF's estimates, and more like $2.4 trillion, according to Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations and Rachel Ziemba of RGE Monitor.






Quote:
Abu Dhabi is experimenting with a more interesting future. In February ground was broken on the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, the first step in an initiative to foster renewable-energy technologies, from conception to manufacture. The initiative will be based in a small eco-city, which will invite its citizens to economise on energy and escape from their cars.

The ground-breaking ceremony was powered by 24 solar panels of various designs, each competing for the bid to serve the city. In the site office the electricity meter turns backwards, an early example of Masdar's ambition to contribute electricity to the national grid beyond the power it needs to run itself. In a country dedicated to driving and drilling, Masdar is bold, perhaps quixotic. It is an attempt not so much to diversify the economy as to invert it. Is it a folly? The beauty of Abu Dhabi is that it has the money to make it work, and the money not to worry too much if it fails.

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dissident
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:00 am    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The Economist is a monetarist rag. It's one note tune about oil producers "drowning" in oil revenues is hilarious given that it does not make a squeak about the borrow and spend US economy. The Gulf economies are actually growing which reflects in the increased domestic demand for fossil fuels. The Economist wishes they did not grow and instead siphoned all of their revenues back to the USA and other consumer nations. Heaven forbid they might have inflation from high growth rates. Everybody knows inflation is much more important than real income growth. LOL.
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mkwin
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 2:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
The Economist is a monetarist rag. It's one note tune about oil producers "drowning" in oil revenues is hilarious given that it does not make a squeak about the borrow and spend US economy. .


The economist has been writing about the US housing market and credit problems for years now.
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scienceteacher
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-what-the-hell-is-going-on-over-there/
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

And with that desert heat and lack of humidity it will be the greatest ruins ever. Imagine how future generations will try to put it all together. It will look like it was the center of civilization.

I guess maybe it is. Sad

Of course most of that won't get built but enough has been built already to leave an impression.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

What are they supposed to do with all their money? Not build infrastructure? At least they aren't building suburbs and automotive plants! Laughing
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I can't imagine what the air conditioning bill for all of this unsustainable development will be.

Do they plan on adding a dozen nuclear power plants as well?

If not, what exactly is going to stop these 50 story greenhouses from cooking the inhabitants?

What about the water bills? How many public fountains and swimming pools need to be filled with desalinated ocean water?

I saw at the bottom of the page that they want to build a space port. A SPACE PORT?

WTF ARE THEY GOING TO DO WITH A SPACE PORT... Crying or Very sad

The architects of these projects need to be smacked over the head with the cold, hard crowbar of reality.


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Johnston
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:
I can't imagine what the air conditioning bill for all of this unsustainable development will be.

Do they plan on adding a dozen nuclear power plants as well?

If not, what exactly is going to stop these 50 story greenhouses from cooking the inhabitants?

What about the water bills? How many public fountains and swimming pools need to be filled with desalinated ocean water?

I saw at the bottom of the page that they want to build a space port. A SPACE PORT?

WTF ARE THEY GOING TO DO WITH A SPACE PORT... Crying or Very sad

The architects of these projects need to be smacked over the head with the cold, hard crowbar of reality.


And all of this has to be supported by people flying into the country.

How is this going to work when the cost of aviation becomes unaffordable?

Jet fuel prices are already having a big impact, and this is only the beginning.
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 11:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In theory, they plan on catering only to the high end market.

But the high end market is shrinking...

How many Bear Stearns fund managers are taking a trip to Dubai this year?
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cube
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 11:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
There are more construction workers in Dubai than there are actual citizens.

bubble economy? Rolling Eyes
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mkwin
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:44 am    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

well they have awesome CSP and general solar resources, which I am sure would power their air conditioning and water plants at a reasonable cost.
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GASMON
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:18 am    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

scienceteacher wrote:
Here's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-what-the-hell-is-going-on-over-there/


Looks like my hometown here in Lancashire, England !!!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck to them, I say, there also giving alot of Yanks & Brits employment also, at the higher end.

Also nice to see them spending on infrastructure, and not arms & troublemaking, like their neighbours.

Whether its sustainable, or around in 100 years, who knows ?.

Crazy old world, ain't it.

Gasmon
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dorlomin
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:22 am    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

A rather fetching example of the export land model in action there.

However the inflationary pressures and social unrest are not a joke. They will have to spend alot of money on keeping food prices down to stop social unrest in there populations. It will be an insane treadmill they will be on.
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BigTex
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

scienceteacher wrote:
Here's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-what-the-hell-is-going-on-over-there/


Anyone know which one of those buildings is the Tower of Babel?
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

BigTex wrote:
scienceteacher wrote:
Here's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-what-the-hell-is-going-on-over-there/


Anyone know which one of those buildings is the Tower of Babel?


Hahahaha.

I think it's the one that reaches nearly a kilometer into the air.

I wonder how long it would take to climb up all of those stairs.

Climbing to the top could become a new Olympic event.
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