cb _________________ President Bush: “There’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk—that’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras. It got drunk, and now it’s got a hangover."
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:22 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Re. Jack re. "As simple as that."
No, not so simple. Where even pre-petroleum levels of technology exist (any form of stored energy, and the printing press), democratic societies have greater Darwinian fitness than totalitarian ones, as measured by longevity of form of government.
As well, the level of imposed violence within a society as in totalitarianism, or between societies as in war, that is required to suppress the free will of individuals, immediately leads to breakdown of the means of accumulating and storing knowledge. The endpoint of that cycle is life in the caves, with an average lifespan below 40 years. See also Somalia, Darfur, etc., and North Korea (the latter sustained only by food donated by other countries, otherwise it would have broken down long ago).
Your plan simply won't work. It may sound hard-nosed, but it's every bit as much dream-fluff as hoping to "teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony."
---
Zensui, I have some news for you too...
Even one child per couple worldwide will take 70 years to get population back to sustainable levels. We don't have 70 years.
And the degree to which we would have to put the economies of the wealthy nations into reverse gear in order to reduce consumption to sustainable levels, would result in an economic depression that would make the 1930s seem like a childrens' story by comparison.
We're not going to make it. The best we can do is put the brakes on as hard as possible without devolving into totalitarianism, and accept the fact that a multi-gigadeath dieoff is headed our way this century. The values of empathy and compassion will help considerably in preventing the situation from declining to the point where we're in the downward spiral back to the caves. And then some time next century, the rebuilding can begin.
That's the reality we face, and I'm not happy about it either.
---
So far as voluntary measures are concerned:
When women are educated beyond the 6th grade, birth rate drops by half.
When even basic electricity is provided, birth rate drops by half (yes, because people have other things to do at night besides making more babies).
Reducing consumption levels is more difficult and requires a shift in the culture. The best possible shift would be from placing value on consumption, to placing value on accumulating knowledge and demonstrating excellence in all of the "creative endeavors" e.g. the sciences, athletics, philosophy & religion, the arts, and so on. Instead of bragging about having more possessions, people would say "I learned something new today!" or "I beat my personal best at weightlifting today!" or "I wrote a short story" or "spent a couple of hours studying scripture" or "took my kid on a long walk and taught her the names of the plants along the way" or "helped a neighbor repair their house" etc.
Interestingly, the LDS Church's ad campaign on radio & TV, with the theme "Family: it's about time," emphasizing the value of spending more time with your family, is a perfect example of what's needed here on a much larger scale.
---
And as for involuntary measures:
Sterilizing convicted felons, as part of their statutory penalty under law, is a useful place to start. There is no right to reproduce (it is not ennumerated in any constitution in any country), it is merely a matter of strong personal preferences and customs. Since we already take away convicted felons' Second Amendment rights after they complete their prison sentences, there should be no problem taking away something that is not an ennumerated right. And I'll bet the threat of sterilization brings down the crime rate too.
Making food aid contingent upon adoption of population reduction strategies is another useful place to start. Let the target countries use whatever strategy they like so long as they get results.
Once again consumption is a toughie. Rationing leads to market distortions that can produce unsustainable outcomes, so it should only be used to overcome temporary emergencies. Tax policies may be useful to a degree, for example carbon taxes instead of payroll taxes. In fact a carbon tax would go directly to the source of the climate crisis so this is a viable solution.
Realistically, the resource-rich nations may simply impose consumption cutbacks on the conventionally-wealthy nations, by way of pricing mechanisms. Then, as with the target countries for population reduction, wealthy countries will have to figure out how they are going to get their consumption levels down. And if they know what's good for them in terms of avoiding social explosions, that sacrifice is going to have to be shared equitably.
No matter what we do, we're still headed for a multi-gigadeath dieoff. However that's no reason to fail to try everything possible, in order to reduce the intensity and duration of the dieoff phase and move forward into the rebuilding phase stronger than otherwise.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:53 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Some more reports of food rioting and looting, this time from Afghanistan:
AFGHANISTAN: Global Emergency Triggers Food Riots
Quote:
The price hikes have sparked rioting and looting in various Afghan cities. In the eastern city of Jalalabad, protesters this week blocked a main highway connecting the city to the capital Kabul and demanded government price-controls of foodstuffs. In the markets of the northern town of Kunduz and in the outskirts of Kabul, merchants complain that locals have resorted to stealing bags of flour.
"Something has to change... my life is horrible," Zahir, an Afghan trash collector says. Zahir is buying flour for his family of 11, a simple act that has become increasingly difficult for Afghan residents in recent months. "We cannot eat more because the cost has become so high."
"My small son cries everyday for some bread," he continues. "Look at the people around me," he says, waving his arm around a group of disheveled labourers. "They can't afford to eat every day now."
Source: UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION _________________ "I eat the pretzel, it get stuck in the throat and I pass out..." - George W Bush
March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:17 am Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
jlw61 wrote:
Actually, from an armchair psychologist's point of view, the early rationing signals to many that the supply is being protected, so they don't have to rush out to hoard supplies. It's more of an "oh, honey, pick up some rice on your way home" type of thing. Imagine the panic if there was no rice left in NYC for a day or two or if rice kept getting sold out over a few weeks time. That would cause people, IMHO, to rush out and start buying up everything they could, causing potential cascade panic and probable government intervention.
I'm glad somebody in the retail stores have a brain, because they sure don't have any in government.
Quote:
Concern mounted in the southern city many still call Saigon after a popular supermarket chain, Saigon Co-op Mart, said it was selling only 10 kg of rice for each purchase. That came less than a week after U.S. giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc's <WMT.N> Sam's Club warehouse division put limits on purchases of rice.
By Monday, there were lines at the co-op and people loading up bags of rice, although it was also a sale day for food and other produce to mark the April 30 Liberation Day holiday.
Authorities are trying to reduce hoarding and a supermarket worker filling bags of rice said, "We don't want people to buy a lot at the same time."
Yeah, that "ration to show that supplies are being protected" seems to be working really well. I'm not as much of an armchair psychologist, but it sure looks to me as though people are hearing about the rationing and assuming that the stores are attempting to "protect" very limited supplies, so people are rushing out to make sure they get enough of what's left.
I would think that if you wanted to convince people there is no problem, you would want them to see a small mountain of rice at their local store, not a sign saying "no more than 10kg per person." OTOH, if you want to protect supplies *and* convince people there's no problem, you would want to raise prices through the roof, give coupons to low income people to buy some, *and* have small mountains of rice at the local stores. Then pass the revenue from those high prices back to farmers to encourage them to grow more.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
gg3 wrote:
No matter what we do, we're still headed for a multi-gigadeath dieoff.
That's great news!
gg3 wrote:
However that's no reason to fail to try everything possible, in order to reduce the intensity and duration of the dieoff phase and move forward into the rebuilding phase stronger than otherwise.
Why bother? The greater the demise of TWV (Third World Vermin) the better.
Pictures of the ongoing giga-death really ought to be televised.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 612 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:00 am Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
kjmclark wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
Actually, from an armchair psychologist's point of view, the early rationing signals to many that the supply is being protected, so they don't have to rush out to hoard supplies. It's more of an "oh, honey, pick up some rice on your way home" type of thing. Imagine the panic if there was no rice left in NYC for a day or two or if rice kept getting sold out over a few weeks time. That would cause people, IMHO, to rush out and start buying up everything they could, causing potential cascade panic and probable government intervention.
I'm glad somebody in the retail stores have a brain, because they sure don't have any in government.
Quote:
Concern mounted in the southern city many still call Saigon after a popular supermarket chain, Saigon Co-op Mart, said it was selling only 10 kg of rice for each purchase. That came less than a week after U.S. giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc's <WMT.N> Sam's Club warehouse division put limits on purchases of rice.
By Monday, there were lines at the co-op and people loading up bags of rice, although it was also a sale day for food and other produce to mark the April 30 Liberation Day holiday.
Authorities are trying to reduce hoarding and a supermarket worker filling bags of rice said, "We don't want people to buy a lot at the same time."
Yeah, that "ration to show that supplies are being protected" seems to be working really well. I'm not as much of an armchair psychologist, but it sure looks to me as though people are hearing about the rationing and assuming that the stores are attempting to "protect" very limited supplies, so people are rushing out to make sure they get enough of what's left.
I would think that if you wanted to convince people there is no problem, you would want them to see a small mountain of rice at their local store, not a sign saying "no more than 10kg per person." OTOH, if you want to protect supplies *and* convince people there's no problem, you would want to raise prices through the roof, give coupons to low income people to buy some, *and* have small mountains of rice at the local stores. Then pass the revenue from those high prices back to farmers to encourage them to grow more.
And have congress haul your ass in front of TV cameras telling everyone how you are "profiteering"? Not quite. First, rationing tells everyone there is a problem, just not as starkly as empty shelves. Rationing of a certain product tells everyone there is a problem with the supply of that product. It gives people who rely on that product time to go get some of it.
Now imagine the chain reaction that could have occurred if rice was suddenly missing from the shelves? You could not get any unless you were there to buy when the bags were unloaded from the truck. This would have all happened before all of the news stories hit telling everyone there were rice shortages (and just rice shortages). I can imagine rumors circulating on other products that would then cause more shortages of other products when there are no shortages. That of course could lead to more shortages and full blown panic in the larger cities.
BTW, I've checked around and I can still buy almost any rice I want. Apparently there are still supplies, you just need to know where to go to find them.
And sure, the mountain of rice is a great idea, but the stores are not in the business of reassurance. Bringing in that much rice costs extra money and affects the stores profit for the quarter. There is also a chance that it would work and they would be stuck with that mountain of rice which would then have to be disposed of or distributed to places that need it (costing more money). Remember, most corporations are concerned way more about profits than appearances. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4343 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Food Rationing across NYC!
jlw61 wrote:
BTW, I've checked around and I can still buy almost any rice I want. Apparently there are still supplies, you just need to know where to go to find them.
You can go to ebay and get rice...FOR $1.00 a pound !!!! _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Government officials have also been watching price tags warily. Though typically insulated from public criticism, the Kremlin has been particularly sensitive to the effects that rising food costs might have on Russians as their country begins to succumb to a global trend that has sparked street protests by hungry citizens in some countries.
As inflation rates approached 12 percent last year, the government imposed export tariffs and introduced a price freeze on some staple goods amid fears of public dissatisfaction ahead of recent elections.
All politics are local. Governments will step in when prices get too high, even at the cost of globalization. If they will do it with the food that feeds their people, will they act any differently when there are shortages of the oil that feeds their machines?
People can change their eating habits to local food faster than we can change ours (USA) to do without their oil. As we have seen, it is the importers that are in the tightest bind.
Who imports 56% of their oil?
I do. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1580 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: Re: U.S. food shortages/rationing (was NYC)
Rice rationing even came to 98% white redneck Idaho this week.
I was in the local Costco and the following signs were on the rice shelves.
"PLEASE LIMIT RICE PURCHASES TO FIVE BAGS"
I guess our rice truck was diverted to SoCal. _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:14 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
gg3 wrote:
There is no right to reproduce (it is not ennumerated in any constitution in any country)
Perhaps you might want to take a look at your own constitution, specifically the 9th amendment:
Quote:
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
It specifically says that all rights (including the right to reproduce) are retained by the people. The constitution of the Republic of Ireland has a similar clause (article 40.3).
The 10th amendment is also useful here:
Quote:
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
What that means basically, is that the federal government does not have any authority that is not specifically granted by the constitution. And since nowhere in the constitution does it say the government has the authority to determine whether or not someone can reproduce, they don't have the authority to do so.
Of course, this is all academic. The constitution doesn't give the federal government the authority to levy income taxes or legislate morality either, but you have the IRS, the ATF, FBI...the whole alphabet soup. Unfortunately, very few states are willing to exercise their rights against the federal government. The last time they did so, it went...badly. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3579 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Dreamtwister wrote:
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
It specifically says that all rights (including the right to reproduce) are retained by the people. The constitution of the Republic of Ireland has a similar clause (article 40.3).
The 10th amendment is also useful here:
Quote:
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
Unfortunately, we see the word, people, as meaning the citizenry. Our government sees it as meaning people in the government! _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4258 Location: Graceland
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:39 am Post subject: Re: U.S. food shortages/rationing (was NYC)
I've never bought a bag of rice in my life, but now I'm all freaked out that they may not be available, so I am frantically looking around for a place where I can stock up.
Just kidding, but I'll bet there are a lot of people doing this. _________________
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