Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:11 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
The_Toecutter wrote:
55 kWh for 200 miles range would be needed for a 3200 lbs midsize car with a 0.3 Cd and 22 sq ft frontal area. But, a midsize car could easily have nearly half the drag without compromising styling(eg. GM Precept concept at 0.16 Cd), and that would allow the same range on a much smaller battery pack.
I prefer to use real life examples and try to "extrapolate". In this case when I say "real life" I'm not trying to be condescending I mean something that I can buy right now. Using that method, this website seems to lean more towards my direction than yours. We've all heard of the Tesla car
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=59
Quote:
The Tesla Roadster’s battery is extraordinary and in some respects is our company’s “secret sauce.” We call it the Energy Storage System (ESS). It is comprised of 6,831 individual lithium ion cells, each similar to the 6 to 12 cells (made by top-tier 18650 cell providers) found in many standard laptop computers. The cells, in turn, are housed in 11 modules. The ESS weighs about 900 pounds and contains about 53 kilowatt-hours of energy.
It looks like my 55 kWh number isn't that far off the mark. Okay you can argue that the Tesla gets more than 200 miles. Officially it was suppose to be a 250 mile range car but there are conflicting sources.
Bad news from Tesla: Original range target won't be met!
But that still makes my 55 kWh closer than you're 30 kWh. Furthermore I can add what if I want a family car that can hold 5 people total instead of a sports car that can only hold 2? A family car would be heavier, not take advantage of exotic composite materials, and the aerodynamic profile would be less advantageous than a sports car. Using that argument an EV car would easily require a 55 kWh battery pack to achieve a 200 mile range.
An explanation please?
-----------------
The_Toecutter wrote:
What exists today? Hand-built lithium ion battery packs at $700/kWh. NiCd in volume for about 500 cars per year goes down to $500/kWh. Thundersky batteries, when bought in volume for about 20 cars through a group buy, are about $400/kWh but otherwise $700/kWh in volume for 1 car.
How much would a Li-ion battery cost if it was seriously mass produced in large scale? Enough for a couple million EV cars per year? I don't have any reliable stats to tackle this argument so I'll drop it.
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:33 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
cube, are you against electric cars? Or do you just think they won't become a viable option anytime soon, if ever?
If the latter I probably agree with you. But if big oil hadn't crushed the EV's back in the 90's then I think we would see a very different automotive world today. Its no lie that electric cars can do the job for 90% of peoples needs. Hell, its more realistic than hydrogen cars!
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
This discussion seems to have gotten away from a basic point. Most car owners are urban or suburban dwellers. Most of said metro drivers travel under 30 miles per day in their cars and do or can complete most of their trips on roads posted for 35mph or less.
So why do all of everybody's cars have to have ranges of 300 miles and the ability to go 120mph? Not exactly appropriate technology!
One comparison is that we are all carrying around painters ladders that can reach the third floor, when all we almost ever need is to reach the third shelf in the kitchen. And to extend the analogy a bit more, what would happen if you tried carrying around such an out-sized ladder in your house, even collapsed down? You would quickly destroy everything in the house, which is pretty much what we are doing.
Having said all this, most have to become much more urban or much more rural. The rural folks will mostly stay on the farm and supply most of their needs therefrom, as was the case through most of history. While the urban dwellers should be able to do most of their trips walking, biking and using public transportation.
Nine tenths (or probably much more) of what we have to do is move away from a car-based culture. The other tenth (or much less) is mostly modest electric for urbanites, and limited bio-diesel and animals for food production and transport to local markets.
Switching to electric or bio-fuels without massive reductions in car use and conversions to walking, biking and public transport will almost certainly only exacerbate our already enormous problems. This has already happened with bio-fuels, IMVHO.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
s0cks wrote:
cube, are you against electric cars? Or do you just think they won't become a viable option anytime soon, if ever?
All of this is just an intellectual exercise for fun. I am NOT here to create followers.
I am looking for people with:
1) new ideas
2) new arguments
3) I care MUCH more about "how" you came up with your numbers then what you believe in.
Are EV cars viable? maybe yes / maybe not. Although some very good points were made, Unfortunately NOBODY here has came up with a sufficiently convincing argument and yes I think the burden of proof rests much more heavily on the supporters. That's the way it always works if you want people to adopt a different system from the status quo.
I will admit to this. I believer EV cars have a much better chance then hydrogen. Actually hydrogen fuel cell cars are the most ridiculous idea. According to my own research I think under very "specialized" applications an EV car could work. If you only wanted to travel no more then 20 miles away from your home and back again for a recharge, then an EV car limited to that specification actually comes out comparable to an ICE car in price! BTW this is actually a "new" idea for me. When I first stepped into this forum I was dead set against EV cars in every shape and situation imaginable.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 1:21 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Are EV cars viable? (redundancy involved in the question BTW)...
How can they not be viable? If you suspect that a liquid fuels crisis will impact the world and our lifestyles, you must realize that choices will have to be made about how to use the remainder of our easily available liquid fossil fuels. Heat the house or commute 75 mph for 45 minutes to get to work? Run into town to pick up a book at the library or cut firewood to heat the house next winter? Everyone will have their own choices to consider, especially if we get into a rationing scenario.
Are EV's viable? I believe that in some point in the future it's going to be EV's or walk (or bike or public transportation) because you won't be able to buy the gasoline you want when you want it. Ev's will probably be the only viable choice to many of us.
Frank
'94 Toyota EV conversion
1973 Aermacchi SX350 EV conversion
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
mos6507 wrote:
Yes, but there are more automakers besides GM, Chrysler, and Ford. China is experiencing a boom in eBikes right now. It wouldn't be a huge leap to see them move into full-size electric vehicles because they would be first-time car purchases for people, and therefore they will be more open-minded.
Myers Motors is working with some Chinese companies to get the Javlon ready for production in volume of a few thousand units a year. This will get the price into the $30,000 range for the US market, for 150 miles per charge and 85 mph top speed using a midsize car that can seat 5 adults.
We're on the way there(albeit much more slowly than we could be); what irks me is that we could have been there in 1998 and now we have this huge oil crisis staring us in the face.
Quote:
It seems like a new battery chemistry advance comes out in the news every 3-6 months. The technology is literally rolling out the red carpet for electric vehicles--vehicles that will NOT require radical aeromodding, carbon fiber bodies, or reserving the entire floorpan for the battery-pack. In the end, there is TOO MUCH MONEY to be made on EVs for any cabal of oil executives to hold it back.
Battery advances have been frequent even in the 1990s.
That cabal has managed to hold them back so far. I agree that they can't do it indefinately, but they can do it long enough to where an oil crisis and the resulting loss in disposable income makes the transision much more slow and difficult, and impossible for what would be by then an extinct middle class.
Quote:
If TSHTF to the extent that it's too little too late, well, people should look into doing their own conversion as a hedge against that possibility. It would be nice to have 100 mile range but <$10K for a 14kwh pack isn't bad.
A 14 kWh pack can get a 100 mile range in an efficient car. A lead acid pack of 14 kWh(factoring in Peukert's effect and correcting for current draws typical of highway use) can be had for about $2,500.
cube wrote:
I prefer to use real life examples and try to "extrapolate". In this case when I say "real life" I'm not trying to be condescending I mean something that I can buy right now. Using that method, this website seems to lean more towards my direction than yours. We've all heard of the Tesla car
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=59
Quote:
The Tesla Roadster’s battery is extraordinary and in some respects is our company’s “secret sauce.” We call it the Energy Storage System (ESS). It is comprised of 6,831 individual lithium ion cells, each similar to the 6 to 12 cells (made by top-tier 18650 cell providers) found in many standard laptop computers. The cells, in turn, are housed in 11 modules. The ESS weighs about 900 pounds and contains about 53 kilowatt-hours of energy.
It looks like my 55 kWh number isn't that far off the mark. Okay you can argue that the Tesla gets more than 200 miles. Officially it was suppose to be a 250 mile range car but there are conflicting sources.
Bad news from Tesla: Original range target won't be met!
But that still makes my 55 kWh closer than you're 30 kWh.
You want real life examples?
GM EV1 - 140 Wh/mile
AC Propulsion TZero - 150 Wh/mile
Venturi Fetish - 250 Wh/mile
Solectria Sunrise - less than 100 Wh/mile (during Tour De Sol), 150 Wh/mile(~70 mph)
John Wayland's Datsun 1200 "Blue Meanie" - 160 Wh/mile
Granted, most of the above are lightweight sports cars, and with the exception of the EV1 and Sunrise, have no attention paid to aerodynamics. But it is perfectly feasible for an efficient chassis to go 200 miles per charge at highway speeds on only 30 kWh. An electrified version of the Loremo is projected to need ~100 Wh/mile. Thr Aptera needs < 90 Wh/mile at highway speeds.
If you keep normal car aerodynamics, then yes, 55 kWh for 200 miles range would be more closer to the norm. But, you can have very good aerodynamics without sacrificing style(eg. GM Precept, Dodge Intrepid ESX 3, Ford Prodigy), and this pays off huge in improved range.
Quote:
Furthermore I can add what if I want a family car that can hold 5 people total instead of a sports car that can only hold 2? A family car would be heavier, not take advantage of exotic composite materials, and the aerodynamic profile would be less advantageous than a sports car. Using that argument an EV car would easily require a 55 kWh battery pack to achieve a 200 mile range.
An explanation please?
Actually, it is much easier to get a midsize car to have good aerodynamics than it is to do such to a sports car. The Lotus Elise that the Tesla is based on has a drag coefficient that is actually quite mediocre(~0.36 for Elise; tyical Cd for cars today is around 0.32). The Tesla seems designed moreso for looks. It also uses big, sticky sport tires, which impacts range hugely(a midsize car with normal performance would have no use for them). The only thing really going for it in terms of efficiency is a relatively low weight, about 2,600 lbs, but air drag is much more important at highway speeds.
Hobbyists who have used Datsun 1200s(aerodynamics not very good but quite light weight and can seat 4) can get efficiencies in the 150 Wh/mile range.
Hobbyists who have used 90s era Geo Prizms and VW Jettas have gotten consumption around 250-300 Wh/mile, which isn't much more than the Tesla Roadster. These cars have no concessions to aerodynamics or weight reduction when compared to similar cars sold today, and it is easy to see them getting into the 150-200 Wh/mile consumption range when you get the drag coefficient into the 0.18-.20 area.
If you wish to calculate what consumption a car would need, I can give you the equations if you want them. I once calculated that the Tesla Roadster would get about 240 miles range at 60 mph and it almost matched their claims. I used to do this for fun and compare my calculations with the results people have claimed for their conversions and to see whether certain companies were making unrealistic claims.
Quote:
How much would a Li-ion battery cost if it was seriously mass produced in large scale? Enough for a couple million EV cars per year?
Millions? Don't know. I do have access to studies that find this figure for volumes in the tens of thousands per year.
The numbers seem reliable enough for planning/design purposes. If they weren't, the auto industry would never conduct feasibility studies to begin with. _________________ The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:05 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Start-Ups Race to Produce 'Green' Cars
Quote:
Spurred by the belief that the market for fuel-efficient vehicles is about to take off, a slew of tiny car companies is springing up in Europe and the U.S. They are racing to produce the next "green" car, betting that soaring demand will allow them to survive alongside the giants of Detroit, Stuttgart and Tokyo.
Most of the upstarts were founded in the last 12 months and have financial backing from venture-capital firms. They are headed by former top engineers and designers from the likes of Germany's Volkswagen AG and storied U.K. racecar builder McLaren. Responding to soaring gasoline prices and a tightening noose of emissions regulations in Europe and the U.S., the companies are working on a new generation of hybrid and electric vehicles.
WSJ _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 3:06 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
The_Toecutter wrote:
...
Myers Motors is working with some Chinese companies to get the Javlon ready for production in volume of a few thousand units a year. This will get the price into the $30,000 range for the US market, for 150 miles per charge and 85 mph top speed using a midsize car that can seat 5 adults.
....
A $30,000 EV car that actually looks like a "normal" car, I'll believe it when I see it. The last time somebody tried that, GM with it's Chevy volt, costs skyrocketed beyond it's original estimate. Now it's about $48,000 not $30,000
The_Toecutter wrote:
...
We're on the way there(albeit much more slowly than we could be); what irks me is that we could have been there in 1998 and now we have this huge oil crisis staring us in the face.
....
Hey wait a minute! I thought oil companies have the power to suppress technology? If that is true then why are these EV car companies allowed to exist? Not only do they exist, they seem to be expanding business these days with $100 oil. I guess oil companies do NOT really have the power to suppress technology after all.
BTW Toecutter have you seen the movie Chain Reaction
It's a cheesy movie but it does have that energy conspiracy theory thing going for it.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
When the HP-35 calculator was introduced, it cost $400. I can get a similiar one today for $30, and the dollar is worth a lot less today. Thus goes developing tech. I'll have to wait for the price to come down in real terms to buy an electric because I can't afford more than I spend now on transport. As the cost of transport goes up, my use of it will go down.
I live 5 miles from the center of the nearest town, and it is a very hilly trip. Have a new bike, but going on 62 years old, I don't have the stamina I did at 30 when I rode a lot, so if I'm going to ride a bike very far, I'll put a 49 cc Honda motor on it, not an electric one, because the cost/benefit ratio to me is so much better. If/when electric becomes competitive for my needs, and it may, then I'll go electric. That time is not now. At this time, my car costs 12 cents/mile for gas, and hauls 2 people and a load. That is a sensible choice for me today. Tomorrow will be different, but there is every incentive for me to not squander money on an evolving technology, for the same reason that I never bought an HP-35 calculator.
I see the whole electric vehicle thing as a moot debate from my perspective. Those who choose to live on the cutting edge of new technology pay dearly for it. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Mar 29, 2008 Posts: 70 Location: Ashland,OR
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Having gone the other way, electric motorcycle to a gas one, I can say this: waiting fo a 400cc bike to warm up blows; the range on the ev blows.
Daily commuter EV wins. 140mi ride with 70mi of it off-road, ICE wins.
Economy of scale is a big deal. 10s of thousands are not enough, 100,000 is the break point. Three years for toyota to get hybrids to those kinda numbers, no wonder none of the little guys have cut it.
Segway is still chunking along, 10k unit per year. E-go lached on to that suspended licence market, and keeps doing its thing.
Take any ICE car on the market, triple its value, that is what it coststo produce in small volume. Having hand built cars and motorcycle, and never made a dime doing it, be thankfull there are still loonys out there willing to do the economic ICEbreaker.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Top 10 world-changing electric cars
Take away the subsidy that cheap oil provides to electric vehicles and you will find that it's not even a contest.
Battery powered cars are expensive as all hell. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
The thing about this one is that despite the fact that they are simply converting an existing vehicle to hybrid/ev they can't seem to get the damn thing to market in a reasonable timescale. Same problem with the Phoenix, which is just a converted Korean car. I mean, how much R&D does it take to do this? Just ship it already.
Meanwhile Aptera already has their assembly line ready to build production vehicles, a vehicle which was all new, something even Tesla can't boast about. My hat's off to Aptera for having their crap together. If they ever build a 4-wheeler that seats 4-5, I'll be checking them out.
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