Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
Quote:
Opec, the oil producing cartel, has warned that the price of crude could keep rising to reach $200 a barrel.
Opec president Chakib Khelil blamed the falling value of the US dollar, which makes other assets, including oil, more attractive for foreign investors.
His comments came as oil prices hit a fresh high, just below $120 a barrel.
Prices were lifted by a strike at a UK refinery that disrupted North Sea production, and supply problems in Nigeria due to pipeline attacks.
BP shut down a key North Sea pipeline at the weekend after staff walked out of the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland in a two-day strike over pensions.
Providing a third of UK oil output, the closure of the Forties pipeline has raised fears about supply shortages.
US light crude hit a high of $119.93 a barrel before edging down to finish at $118.79.
In doing so, it passed the previous record mark of $119.90 a barrel achieved on Friday.
In London, Brent crude ended at $116.74 a barrel after earlier rising to a peak of $117.51 a barrel on Monday.
Disruption
The BP-run pipeline from the Forties oil fields in the North Sea relies on steam and electricity from the Ineos refinery at Grangemouth.
Grangemouth's closure has caused up to 70 platforms in the North Sea to either shut down or reduce production of oil, resulting in the loss of 700,000 barrels of oil a day.
Although BP has said it can re-open the pipeline within 24 hours of the strike's end on Tuesday, it will take weeks for the refinery to return to full capacity.
"It will affect supplies from the North Sea and that has a potentially significant impact," said David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
'Perfect storm'
The trouble at Grangemouth is the latest spur to an already febrile oil market which has seen prices rise nearly 25% this year.
While $200 oil would be bad enough, even in the first world, the problem that might surface here in 2008 is outright shortages of oil products. More specifically a shortage of diesel, although there's a potential problem with gasoline supplies too.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3741 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
Personally I would rather have gasoline shortages than diesel shortages. Diesel is so important to the movement of goods and farming that a shortage would create serious problems with no way to work around them.
From a different article on the same subject
Quote:
In a letter to President George W. Bush last week, they said Riyadh had cut its oil production by about 2m barrels a day over the past three years, even though oil prices had continued to rise.
What is that about?
Last edited by Eli on Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:39 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
The other problem with sortages is that people start hording. Any sign that it may be hard for them to find gas, they all run to the nearest pump. Which just makes the problem worse a LOT faster.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3741 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
Good point socks, but not only people nations also start hording.
We don't run out of oil it goes beyond the amount local people can afford to pay and the government has to stop exports to lower the local market price.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
What OPEC says may be true or not. It's kind of politics. They want the prices to stay high. Maybe they want to tell the US that if they go on to devaluate the dollar like this, they'll drop it or increase their prices in the same rate as the devaluation.
I don't deny PO, but OPEC and other government issues are not made to tell the truth.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2081 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:50 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
First, these are all some stunning price forecast as of late, even for us POilers.
Now, if its a falling dollar that's the problem, it would seem that would cause, in and of itself, the countries of the world to start trading oil in a basket of currencies and not only the dollar. Of course, that's not a very dollar friendly move, but what's the option? If Opec truly believes its a dollar valuation problem, they have no choice but to de-peg their own currencies from the dollar, as $200 oil would cause massive inflation in their own countries if they stay pegged to the dollar. Further, the dollar would become some worthless in its downward spiral to $200 barrel oil, Opec would have to start trading in other currencies other than the dollar. If Opec unpegs from the dollar, maybe I will believe them that its not a production problem but a dollar devaluation problem.
However, I think its both a devaluing dollar problem and production problem. The dollar becomes worth less and less for obvious trade and budget imbalances. Oil is becoming more expensive also because production isn't increasing when demand is rising. So, its a two edged sword.
For the record, again, I don't buy the Opec arguments that they need confirmation of world oil demand before they will increase their production. There's over 1 billion Chinese with 11% GDP and over a billion Indians with a growing economy, and those two economies will continue to grow as long as there is oil production to fuel their continued growth. So, what more confirmation do they need than 2 billion people living in the fastest growing economies in the world?
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3741 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
And Seahorse the inverse is also true, if lets say they do decide to depeg Oil would shoot past 300 dollars a barrel.
BY de-pegging the dollar is no longer the world currency and no one would want to hold the dollar, all those dollars come back to us and oil does a moon shot.
Then oil might crash as the worlds biggest economy crashes and burns.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1720 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
Quote:
BY de-pegging the dollar is no longer the world currency and no one would want to hold the dollar, all those dollars come back to us and oil does a moon shot.
Then oil might crash as the worlds biggest economy crashes and burns.
This has been my theory for the last couple of years.
Although I don't expect it to happen without pain as there is transition period to find new consumers (i.e. China's internal market. But it is one way in which a large part of the world can continue the party a bit longer.
This would also be a reason why USA might become more aggressive in a last attempt to hold on to dominance. These guys (TPTB in US) have little to lose (I don't think they count humnan lives as losses). _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
Juna juna juna juna juna juna juna juna junt jaaaa
Perfect Storm
Juna juna juna juna juna juna juna juna junt jaaaa
Perfect Storm
Yeah! Rock On Dude!
Russia (We've Peaked),
Saudi Arabia (Sorry can't raise production)
OPEC (Get ready for $200)
Yes, it looks like the fat lady has sung. I do expect a massive rally in oil soon with possibly $150 by Labor Day and some pretty terrifying volatility this summer.
Some things could happen to mitigate, supplies running higher than usual, a kind storm season, a new Ghawar found somewhere that starts producing the day after they find it. All said and considered the US looks like a Turkey just before Thanksgiving anxiously turning to the other barnyard animals going,
'What do you mean they eat Turkey? Horse, Pig,.. what are you guys talking about? You're scaring me now.'
'Yeaaaah, you jokers, Aaah right, yeah they EAT Turkey! Haaa good one. Yeah jokes on me.' _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
OPEC and other oil producers believe an oil price range between $30 and $50 a barrel could be suitable for both producers and consumers, OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said. (24th May 2005)
While $200 oil would be bad enough, even in the first world, the problem that might surface here in 2008 is outright shortages of oil products. More specifically a shortage of diesel, although there's a potential problem with gasoline supplies too.
Now DP, I won't mention that I was one of the first this year to call padiddo for shortages. That would just be too vain.
I told you guys super spike this year. It is essentially a magnitude 9 earthquake to the world economy. Will the economy fail, no, but life before and life after will hardly be comparable. The recognition of peak oil and all it means is upon us.
Godspeed gentlemen. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:25 am Post subject: Re: OPEC warns oil could reach $200. 'PERFECT STORM'
ohanian wrote:
OPEC and other oil producers believe an oil price range between $30 and $50 a barrel could be suitable for both producers and consumers, OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said. (24th May 2005)
When we factor out the political gamesman ship that headline actually reads
'OPEC acknowledges age of oil is over. Chief says to US "Please pack up your stratego pieces and go home."' _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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