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KevO
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Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 2358
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 Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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WE - ARE - SAVED!!!!!
Thank Mohammad.
| Quote: | Saudi Output Growth Can Help Forestall Peak Oil, Bernstein Says
By Greg Walters
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian oil output has the potential to rise, helping avoid a peak in world crude production, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Oil prices may fall toward the end of this year as worsening economic conditions reduce demand, analysts Neil McMahon and Ben Dell forecast in a report today. Prices will probably rise later, beyond 2010, and reach $114 a barrel by 2015 as spare capacity declines, they wrote.
``Saudi and global oil production has the potential to grow slowly going forward,'' the authors wrote. ``We do not believe world oil production supply is peaking today.''
Proponents of peak-oil, the theory that global production has or is about to reach its zenith, say booming demand and dwindling supply are responsible for the rising price of oil. Analysts debate the extent and timing of a drop in crude production in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter. Some argue Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, is downplaying reservoir declines and that the country may be forced to reduce output.
Sanford Bernstein commissioned a survey by GeoVille Information Systems to use satellites to monitor drilling at Ghawar, Saudi Arabia's biggest oil field. The analysis ``concludes that the Saudi peak oil production conspiracy theories, based on little or incomplete current field data, do not fit with our findings.''
The study processed field data from recent years to try to detect subsidence, or sinking, in the reservoir. Rapidly depleting reservoirs tend to collapse slowly in small ``micro-earthquakes'' if oil and gas are extracted too rapidly for water or other substances to fill the gaps, McMahon told Bloomberg News in December.
The study suggests Ghawar is ``not in significant reservoir trouble,'' the report said. The field may be showing signs of ``mild production decline rates at worst.'' The field has been properly managed, it said.
Saudi oil output is likely to continue growth at a slower pace than forecast by Saudi Aramco.
To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net |
Bloomberg
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2472
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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I continue to be amazed at how knowledgeable folks cannot grasp what depletion really means.
"The study suggests Ghawar is ``not in significant reservoir trouble,'' the report said. The field may be showing signs of ``mild production decline rates at worst.'' The field has been properly managed, it said. "
Not in significant reservoir trouble. Mild production declines.
When the largest oilfield on the planet has any decline, it's significant. When growing any production around the world can't make up for that "mild decline" I see serious trouble. Its one of the key tenets of Peak Oil.
Why is it that I get it and these folks don't??
Unbelievable. It's either total and utter ignorance of what this means, or it's simply denial. |
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MacG
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 04, 2005
Posts: 1178
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | | It's either total and utter ignorance of what this means, or it's simply denial. |
Denial is a strong force. Think: "Hitlers last days in the bunker in Berlin". |
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mkwin
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 01, 2007
Posts: 596
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| Quote: | | Prices will probably rise later, beyond 2010, and reach $114 a barrel by 2015 as spare capacity declines, they wrote |
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Could someone point this guy to a bloomberg terminal, prices are about to hit $120. |
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sameu
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 18, 2005
Posts: 529
Location: Belgium, Europe
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:00 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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hm $114 in 2015
so with the oilprice at $119 we're in 2020?
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thor
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 451
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| Kumbaya, my Lord, kumbaya ... |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1628
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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How do these people keep their jobs? There's unemployed winos on the Bowery who would be able to pick the oil price direction better than them. And with their wrong predictions, they encourage people to stay the course, it's going to get better, which it's not.
These guys should be taken out and shot for all the lives they're going to cost.
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"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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KevO
Expert
Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 2358
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SolarDave
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 19, 2005
Posts: 380
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| KevO wrote: | | sameu wrote: | hm $114 in 2015
so with the oilprice at $119 we're in 2020? |
you misunderstand. They'll fall back to $114 in 2015 after hitting an all time high of $873.23 in from 2009 to 2011  |
LOL!
So true.
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Micki
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 07, 2005
Posts: 1857
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| Quote: | AirlinePilot wrote:
It's either total and utter ignorance of what this means, or it's simply denial.
Denial is a strong force. Think: "Hitlers last days in the bunker in Berlin". |
MacG, don't worry. A/P is intimately familiar with denial. Think "911". 
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Last edited by Micki on Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4353
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:53 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: |
Why is it that I get it and these folks don't??
Unbelievable. It's either total and utter ignorance of what this means, or it's simply denial. |
Agreed - Denial is a very powerful emotion.
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"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3909
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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Who wants the oil age to end?
It means less of everything we have around us. |
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Micki
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 07, 2005
Posts: 1857
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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It could lead to utopia. And really how much of the "stuff" do we really need or make us any happier?
Seriously, is there anyone outthere with a job who isn't dreaming about the big win so they can get off the rat race? (Rethorical quesion, no answer needed as I am sure there is someone out there who would still flip burgers even if they won a million.)
But no doubt the road before deciding if we head to to utopia or hell will suck big time.
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Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
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Ainan
Heavy Crude
Joined: Feb 18, 2008
Posts: 259
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| Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:48 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| roccman wrote: | | AirlinePilot wrote: |
Why is it that I get it and these folks don't??
Unbelievable. It's either total and utter ignorance of what this means, or it's simply denial. |
Agreed - Denial is a very powerful emotion. |
Or maybe he's just misdirecting the public while he packs his rice and beans. 
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April 2008 Global Population: 6.8 billion
April 2010 Global Population: 7 billion
April 2012 Global Population: 7.2 billion |
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Frank
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 15, 2004
Posts: 429
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Output to Forestall Peak Oil - Bernstein |
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| The EIA is still predicting $67 oil in two years, so how could the government possibly be wrong? |
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