Arctic Ice may 'melt away' this summer

Cid_Yama

I have to disagree. The homerdixon one shows the fracturing and break-up of the multi-year ice more clearly as well as the robust clearing southward along the coasts of Greenland. It only runs through middle of March. If we could see it through now it would be especially telling. We could see most all of it gone this summer.
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billg

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2334 Location: MA

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1027

So leaving the whole wheat issue aside for now, what in your judgment will be the strongest near-term effects of an ice-free Arctic? (This is for any of the bright folks on the forum.)

Homesteader

Tanada

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1027

I hadn't thought of that. So the Arctic coast could become a popular summer vacation destination soon?! (If there is any oil left to get people up there.)

What a bizarre world we are wandering into.

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2334 Location: MA

Cabrone

What are the effects of a N.Pole melt down?

If you mess up the current temperature difference between poles and equator (as we are currently doing rather well) then the wind and precipitation patterns are going to change quite dramatically as the energy flows around the planet try to find a new state of equilibrium.

We are now looking at a rather odd near term situation where in the space of a few years the planet will change from having 2 permanent ice caps to having maybe 2 ice caps during the Northern hemisphere winter months and 1 ice cap during Northern hemisphere summer months.

How that will affect wind and precipitation patterns is, as far as I know, unknown. After all, the mainstream climate view was that the N.Pole would be around for another 50-100 years so it's taken many in the scientific community by surprise. However I think you can expect it to be fairly dramatic, after all it's not every day that you get to lose an entire ice cap.

When you also factor in other effects like gulf stream diversion\switch off, global dimming and a permanent El Nino (all of which have been studied) I think you can guess that the climate will be doing a few somersaults with obvious consequences for food and water security.

Buckle up because it's going to get nasty.

Troyboy1208

Do not forget what will happen to Greenland when it is no longer surrounded by ice in the summer...

Cid_Yama

cabrone,

you are so very correct. Precipitation patterns have changed globally in the last few years. This is already leading to famine.
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Cid_Yama

So leaving the whole wheat issue aside for now, what in your judgment will be the strongest near-term effects of an ice-free Arctic? (This is for any of the bright folks on the forum.)

Murmansk to Churchill - Opportunity Awaits

It occurred to me last night, after contemplating a seasonally ice-free arctic, especially since the north pole is currently under only seasonal ice THIS winter and with the clearing of all the old flows to the Atlantic, Churchill is set to become THE major northern port. Being at the head of a rail line leading to the heart of North America, we are looking at a boom coming like San Francisco in the 19th Century. For the younger person looking to relocate, and ready to invest, what an awesome opportunity.

"The Port of Churchill in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada is a port on the Arctic Ocean. It was once owned by the Government of Canada but was sold to the American company OmniTRAX to run privately.

The port has four deep-sea berths for the loading and unloading of grain, bulk commodities, general cargo, and tanker vessels. The port is connected to the Hudson Bay Railway, an affiliated company of OmniTRAX. Further connections are made with the Canadian National Railway system.

On October 18, 2007 the port received its first inbound shipment in seven years and the first ever from Russia, a shipment of fertilizer purchased by Farmers of North America. Typically, the port is used for outgoing shipments of grain, usually from the Canadian Wheat Board.[1] The shipment from Russia is supposed to be the beginning of an Arctic Bridge that would link Churchill with the Russian port of Murmansk."

link

Churchill, Manitoba, and Murmansk, on the Russian Arctic coast, are unlikely sister cities.

Churchill is not a city at all, but a barren outpost of 1,100 people on the western shore of Hudson Bay. It survives on the 15,000 tourists who visit each year for the chance to see and photograph migrating polar bears.

Murmansk, by contrast, has a population of 325,000, making it the biggest city inside the Arctic Circle. Founded in 1916 as Romanov-on-Murman, just before the revolution wiped out the Romanovs, it is a place of stolidly attractive old buildings, newer high-rises, wide boulevards and green parks. Though it lies north of Churchill, which is ice-bound up to eight months a year, Murmansk's harbor is kept free of ice by the Gulf Stream, the ideal base for the Russian Arctic fleet and commercial shipping.

One thing the communities have in common, however, is hard times. Churchill, never much to begin with, lost most of its population when Canada finished phasing out the Fort Churchill military base in the 1980's. Murmansk, like much of the rest of Russia, lost economic ground with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the more relevant connection is an accident of geography and a shared dream: that the thawing of the Arctic Ocean would help create the so-called Arctic Bridge, a shipping route with their ports as the logical terminals.

The advantage of maritime shortcuts across the top of the world can be startling. For example, shipments from Murmansk to midcontinental North America by the well-worn route through the St. Lawrence Seaway and Great Lakes to Thunder Bay, in western Ontario, typically take 17 days. The voyage from Murmansk to Churchill is only 8 days under good conditions, and from Churchill, rail links snake down through Manitoba, the American Midwest and points south all the way to Monterrey, Mexico.

We're gearing up for the future," said Mr. Lemieux, the Manitoba transportation minister. "We look to be the gateway, the logistical hub of the world for circumpolar navigation."

A lucky winner would be Pat Broe, the American who bought the Port of Churchill in 1997 almost as an afterthought, for a token $10 Canadian. Looking to expand his railroad company, OmniTrax, he had already paid $11 million for 810 miles of denationalized tracks in Manitoba. He acquired the port at auction, figuring he would rather own it than have someone else use it as a "toll booth" for his railroad.

Since his acquisitions, OmniTrax estimates it has spent $50 million modernizing the port to accommodate big ships carrying exports like grain and farm machinery to Murmansk, and incoming Russian products, including fertilizer and steel. By some hopeful estimates, Churchill's shipping season could eventually grow to 8 or even 10 months a year, compared with the current 4.

Michael J. Ogborn, OmniTrax's managing director, said he could see a future for Churchill when "the activity at the port will be as busy as an anthill, with machines, people, freight and ships at dock."

link

I hereby nominate Pat Broe, Luckiest Man in the World. He will be the Most Famous Man of the 21st Century if not the 22nd. Imagine if someone had bought San Francisco for $1 in 1830.

P.S. Please excuse the ebulance, but if somehow, i don't see how, but somehow a global economy survives, this is the play.
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In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
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sjn · Last edited by sjn on Sat May 03, 2008 4:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

Increased shipping through the Arctic will do a very good job of altering the albido of the Greenland ice cap with carbon deposits, thereby accelerating the meltdown.

[Fixed up lots of typos... Rolling Eyes

]

Tanada

I don't think it was blind luck, he had a sound bussiness reason for purchasing the port in 1997. The fact that his purchase occured right at the cusp of Arctic meltdown was luck, but that is what Billionare's are made of, sound bussiness with a little luck thrown in.
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