Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:59 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Tanada wrote:
While our current civilization might fall apart saying there will be no historians 5 or 200 years from now requires extinction of the species, which I firmly beleive is not acheivable.
It may happen without extinction.
It is enough to have a sort of global Easter Island scenario or Level 5 of societal collapse as per Orlow scale (where there is complete cultural collapse and remaining breeding couples are struggling for survival in isolation).
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
This topic is probably worthy of its own thread. But meanwhile, here's my two cents (probably worth much less):
On the one hand, humans are about the most adaptable of all creatures, living and even flourishing in nearly every terrestrial climate that is capable of supporting any kind of life to speak of. So collectively we are tough little buggers to kill off completely (too the great misfortune of most other complex life on the planet, apparently.)
On the other hand, anything can happen. With extinction rates at some thousands or tens of thousands per year (thats above the background rate of about 1 extinction per year), it seems a bit presumptuous to assume that somehow our species can not join the swelling ranks of once thriving but now extinct species. We are, after all, just one species.
If the scenario discussed in Peter Ward's Under a Green Sky develops, where clouds of hydrogen sulfide drift along the ground killing all plant and animal life in their wake, large parts of the earth currently packed with humans will be pretty well wiped clean of life. Even people with gas masks will have to deal with a pretty grim struggle for survival after such an event.
And if, as seems likely at this point, large portions of the plankton that generate much of the oxygen we breath are wiped out, we could see plummeting levels of that vital gas in the atmosphere. I'm not sure what levels of oxygen humans can survive on unassisted, but it's not going to make life any easier.
How soon any of these developments could develop is hard to say. Most put them out quite a ways. But then most put the total summertime melting of the Arctic at least a century out till last summer's record-breaking melt. We're in uncharted waters, where there be monsters.
Frankly, I see changes happening much faster than what he envisions. The melting off of the Arctic ice cap is equivalent to flipping off a light switch in a room on a dark night..suddenly everything vanishes.
In the "methane melt" article Dohboi posted, the author provides data that implies that a mere 1.0-1.5C of temperature increase is necessary to trigger the submarine methane clathrates off Siberia's coast. Well, the Arctic ocean's SST was 1.5C above the previous high during summer 2007. So it would seem we are not so far off from reaching that critical thawing point given current trends. _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:10 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
dohboi wrote:
And if, as seems likely at this point, large portions of the plankton that generate much of the oxygen we breath are wiped out, we could see plummeting levels of that vital gas in the atmosphere. I'm not sure what levels of oxygen humans can survive on unassisted, but it's not going to make life any easier.
Now we have ca 21% of oxygen.
Down to 18% we can cope reasonably well.
At 16-18% we would end up hindered, unable to proceed with many tasks, perhaps including breeding. Some proportion would die.
At 15-16% we die and process will take from hours to days, depending on individual.
Below 15% we die reasonably fast.
However, if it have taken few thousands (or tens of thousands) of years for oxygen levels to fall to 16%, some of our descendants could well adapt to live at such concentration.
It would probably be at expense of curtailing activity of brain, our most oxygen hungry organ.
It means that under such scenario natural selection would weed out intelligence.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1226 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 5:53 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
..... However, if it have taken few thousands (or tens of thousands) of years for oxygen levels to fall to 16%, some of our descendants could well adapt to live at such concentration.
It would probably be at expense of curtailing activity of brain, our most oxygen hungry organ.
It means that under such scenario natural selection would weed out intelligence.
Not good for 'human civilization' but much better for all other living things I think. _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
This is pretty scary stuff. Way more so than oil depletion. The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet. It is quoted as being 1 of the very few times Earth came close to being just another lifeless rock. Can humans survive that? Especially without abundant energy and resources to generate oxygen, covered dwellings, grow forests, food, etc... Not gonna happen.
BUT, there is pretty much nothing we can do, so there is no point preparing to be "methaned". It could take decades, so may as well live best you can before then. So preparing for a post-oil world is still a priority even if it pales in comparison to the melting of methane ice.
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:05 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
LastViking wrote:
s0cks wrote:
This is pretty scary stuff. Way more so than oil depletion. The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet.
Scary? What part of 1.8 parts per trillion is that you fail to understand? And co2 is measured in parts per million...
Not sure what you are getting at. Surely it's even more scary that such a small amount can have such a massive consequence. And whats up with your maths. As far as I can tell from the graphs its 1800 parts per billion roughly. So per trillion its 1,800,000 parts. Not 1.8. Its 1.8 parts per million.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
s0cks wrote:
LastViking wrote:
s0cks wrote:
This is pretty scary stuff. Way more so than oil depletion. The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet.
Scary? What part of 1.8 parts per trillion is that you fail to understand? And co2 is measured in parts per million...
Not sure what you are getting at. Surely it's even more scary that such a small amount can have such a massive consequence. And whats up with your maths. As far as I can tell from the graphs its 1800 parts per billion roughly. So per trillion its 1,800,000 parts. Not 1.8. Its 1.8 parts per million.
I concede that 1.8 parts per million is the correct stat. But you have missed entirely the point that when we travel back in time to different eras the differences in atmospheric concentrations were measured in per cent terms ... not ppm ppb or ppt. Look at your graphs again and check the oxygen levels...
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
LastViking wrote:
s0cks wrote:
LastViking wrote:
s0cks wrote:
This is pretty scary stuff. Way more so than oil depletion. The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet.
Scary? What part of 1.8 parts per trillion is that you fail to understand? And co2 is measured in parts per million...
Not sure what you are getting at. Surely it's even more scary that such a small amount can have such a massive consequence. And whats up with your maths. As far as I can tell from the graphs its 1800 parts per billion roughly. So per trillion its 1,800,000 parts. Not 1.8. Its 1.8 parts per million.
I concede that 1.8 parts per million is the correct stat. But you have missed entirely the point that when we travel back in time to different eras the differences in atmospheric concentrations were measured in per cent terms ... not ppm ppb or ppt. Look at your graphs again and check the oxygen levels...
From quick research CO2 levels were 2000p.p.m in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum period. For the last 24million years it has been stable below 500p.p.m. Current estimates put CO2 levels to be at 500-550p.p.m by 2050. The difference between 500p.p.m and 2000p.p.m? 0.15%. And that was a major warming period with massive extinction. Any warming periods over the last 24million years have been attributed to FAR less CO2 (we're talking 0.0xx%). It takes only a VERY small percentage change to have a completely different world.
If you still don't think such a small change can make any real difference then take conventional poison as an example. It only takes 250p.p.m of aresnic gas to be rapidly fatal. Thats just 0.025%. And exposure of just 25-30p.p.m (0.003%)!!! over 30min is enough to be fatal.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 1:36 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Your implication was that:
s0cks wrote:
The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet.
snip
0.15%. And that was a major warming period with massive extinction. Any warming periods over the last 24million years have been attributed to FAR less CO2 (we're talking 0.0xx%). It takes only a VERY small percentage change to have a completely different world.
But there have been no mass extinctions in the last 24 mil yrs. And certainly none before that where oxygen was within 1% of today's concentration.
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 2:15 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
LastViking wrote:
Your implication was that:
s0cks wrote:
The last major time this happened 95% of all living species were wiped off the planet.
snip
0.15%. And that was a major warming period with massive extinction. Any warming periods over the last 24million years have been attributed to FAR less CO2 (we're talking 0.0xx%). It takes only a VERY small percentage change to have a completely different world.
But there have been no mass extinctions in the last 24 mil yrs. And certainly none before that where oxygen was within 1% of today's concentration.
As far as I am aware there has been no warming in the past 55million years that was caused by severe methane ice melting. I only know of two times. I'm merely stating that if the methane ice deposits melt as severely as has been predicted we could see a warming period greater than that of the last 55million years or even 251million years ago (Permian period). That IS scary. No?
And even if it doesn't get that bad, it still not going to be a very nice place to live.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Now my idea about using nukes to create a nuclear winter to cool the planet doesn't seem so dumb does it?
Better to be in darkness and alive, than in the heat of the sun and burn to death.
Nuclear Winters + iron seeding/ocean fertilizing could potentially eliminate the CO2 levels causing all of these problems.
If we cooled the planet down a few degrees(or more depending on how much dust we put into the atmosphere) we could slow or stop some of the GW feedback loops.
If we used pure deuterium fusion warheads(basically use (deleted so that I wouldn't release knowledge to potential wackos) trigger instead of a plutonium trigger to set off deuterium) we could eliminate any radioactive fallout.
This would give us enough time, and enough social stability to work on climate change head on.
But of course this isn't going to happen, because people are afraid of anything with the word 'nuclear'.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3626 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:18 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Kylon wrote:
Now my idea about using nukes to create a nuclear winter to cool the planet doesn't seem so dumb does it?
Better to be in darkness and alive, than in the heat of the sun and burn to death.
Nuclear Winters + iron seeding/ocean fertilizing could potentially eliminate the CO2 levels causing all of these problems.
If we cooled the planet down a few degrees(or more depending on how much dust we put into the atmosphere) we could slow or stop some of the GW feedback loops.
If we used pure deuterium fusion warheads(basically use (deleted so that I wouldn't release knowledge to potential wackos) trigger instead of a plutonium trigger to set off deuterium) we could eliminate any radioactive fallout.
This would give us enough time, and enough social stability to work on climate change head on.
But of course this isn't going to happen, because people are afraid of anything with the word 'nuclear'.
So more likely or not we are all going to die.
If things get that grim it would be far far better to launch talcum powder into a retrograde orbit where we know it would reenter within a decade, just in case we overdo it we won't have to wait too long for nature to clear the mess. Zero radiation with this plan BTW. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
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