I want someone to answer a few things for me...

Divest · Coal Joined: May 01, 2008 Posts: 8

I never said global demand will decline uniformly, I said global demand will decrease. If Europe, China, Japan, and the US all experience a slowdown, it will have a massive slowdown, and perhaps even decrease global demand for oil. I’m glad the middle east states are growing, but they won’t come close to touching what the super powers use now, regardless of how fast they expand in the near term.

And, I never said predict, I said most economists agree that the cost of oil is far over-valued when you look at the supply/demand. Your original statement of “we’re running out” isn’t true, we have enough oil to last decades, perhaps more if more if found. There is not a substantial up-tick in demand and there has not been a huge decrease in supply; hence the massive increase of oil is not due to, as you seem to think by your original statement, the scarcity of oil.

You seem to be displaying arm-waving prophecy with your doom and gloom statements. Things are not as bad as you make them out to appear and I would very much like for you to stop; its not painting an accurate picture of the situation.

And do you even take the time to read what I type? I said, anything over $95 dollars (hit in December of last year) is due to the steady decline in the value of the USD. Anything over about $70-75 is based on fear that Iran will cut off oil due to sanctions placed on it by the UN over its nuclear problem, or violence in the oil fields of Nigeria, or Venezuela cutting off oil supplies to the US. So no, the USD is not the only reason the value of oil has become double that of last year; it is the primary reason oil spiked to above $115. And yes, we know oil is up; but it does indeed matter what oil is priced in.

BigTex

Divest · Coal Joined: May 01, 2008 Posts: 8

That’s a lot of fancy graphs. Lets start from the top. Global oil production still increased, and according to http://www.globalfirepower.com/list_oil_proven.asp (btw, Iran has about 14% of the worlds total reserves, not 80%), there is still about 900 billion barrels left, more so now because of recent finds in Brazil, and others in the north sea of the coast of Norway. So, no, chances are we have not hit peak oil, and at this point, when there has been several finds just within the past few months its premature to say that we have hit peak oil. Just like with most historical events, we won’t know when we’ve hit that point until well after the fact.

While I appreciate you’re graphs about the US, it just lends to my argument that your middle eastern countries who have been “expanding at a rapid rate” will come no where near the combined 33% of world oil that the US and China consumes; a decrease of anywhere between 1-3% demand of oil is like taking Russia or Spain off that graph completely; something that would have a sizeable effect on the price of oil.

And, after re-reading my argument, I don’t think I’ve ever made the claim that US oil production has risen, or have made any comment on US domestic oil production other then we should drill in ANWR, North Dakota and use the “tar sand” regions of Colorado, much like the Canadians have exploited theirs. And, correct me if I’m wrong- you failed to provide estimates- ANWR has not been fully explored; hence any estimate on how long it would last is premature, again.

I’m not, and never have, said its impossible for the US to undergo food shortages, I’m saying its extremely unlikely. If the rest of the world is in a food crisis, and it spreads here, we’ll simply cut off food exports; something that can be easily resumed once stability returns. It is considerably harder to restart an economy with half its work force unable to work due to years of starvation. Again; if things are “that bad” we as Americans will look out for other Americans first; that means ensuring we have food. But wait, lets look at your next point, if food prices drop due to a decreased dependence on ethanol, then the food crisis abroad will likely be a temporary (1 year) ordeal, because unless the weather is bad this year (i.e., a 2 week snow storm in China that cut rice production) things will stabilize out.

What agricultural product is grown in the south west? None that I can think of off the top of my head; and certainly if it was a huge problem, I’m sure someone would have said something like “what about commodity x?” in the past 10 years. The only problem the south west has is an increasing population and not enough water to go around. The whole food issue is overblown, the fact that it HAS happened before suggests a trend can be created, and using historical data, its likely to be a temporary issue; humans will adapt and find new places to grow these things or the strange weather of this past winter will not be a constant factor in future years.

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3358

Judgie

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4970

s0cks · Last edited by s0cks on Fri May 02, 2008 7:05 am; edited 1 time in total

Aaron

_________________
"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.

Praise HawkMan

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4970

So, I wonder....is hunting trolls on a baited field actually feeding them?
_________________
Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! new_popcornsmiley

Aaron

Pops

Aaron

Keith_McClary