We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Agreed. A very brief respite.
Did we get 3 days before the seemingly inexorable climb continued.
If you are looking to preserve value over the next 10 years, and you assume the Govt won't seize your bullion, then I'd say metals are a great place to park it.
Why did I buy at $17.50?!? Sigh... When's my next paycheck? _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5685 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Heineken wrote:
Good luck in your land quest, SPG. I never knew a more deserving landowner than you would be.
Awww! Thanks.
Quote:
The key to amassing wealth is consistent, monthly saving (even a small amount) coupled with reducing one's living expenses to a minimum. I was determined to master that art if I did nothing else.
Anyway, if you're self-employed you've already won half the battle to freedom.
Hell is taking orders from someone else.
Well...I agree in principle, but I think the key for me amassing wealth may be a bit different. I have a practice in Montana that is loosing money by the bucket load. I have been flying to Seattle every week to have enough money coming in to make ends meet. I ended up with a net income of $18K last year. I am in the process of moving to Seattle so I can work more (for other people), and reducing my exposure to the Montana clinic. With some effort I should be able to move into a more typical physician income for this year.
General Westmoreland had a three part plan for winning in Vietnam:
1. Stop losing.
2. Get ready to win.
3. Win.
My plan for amassing wealth looks sort of similar. Right now I'm working on steps 1 and 2. Stop losing money and get ready to make money. I'm looking for an apartment in Seattle, putting out resumes, and pulling back from my involvement in Montana.
Realistically I can make more money by giving up my Don Quiotesque attachment to the Montana practice and doing more work than I can through any sort of investment scheme.
Makes sense. I'd do whatever was necessary, short of breaking the law, to amass enough funds to buy or build a landed country place. That's what I did. It was one of my primary goals in life.
Of course, once you reach your goal(s), you're always faced with the question, What's next?
At my age, that question gets scarier.
Meanwhile, back at the oil ranch, prices staged quite a comeback today. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Last edited by Heineken on Fri May 02, 2008 8:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Quote:
What's next?
At my age...
At your age, your next step should be leaving your land to me in your will. _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5685 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
OK, PM me and I'll have my lawyer draw up the papers immediately. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 799 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Sat May 03, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
cube wrote:
evilgenius wrote:
...
Hurt your feelings have I? That was not my intention. My point is that I have been trying to tell the gold bulls for quite a while what could happen and nobody listened. I made this string of posts because I want people to pay attention to more than those that agree with them. Believe it or not, I care if I see people heading for a cliff and think I can do anything about it. If I tell you what I plan on doing what is that to you? Maybe you will listen and maybe you won't.
Maybe I am a little emphatic because I am a little tired of all of the gold bull sentiment against what I have said. Maybe I am tired of having to re-explain why I say what I say every single time because nobody wants to either check out any of my old posts when they encounter something that ought to alarm them or cruise the net in order to see if anybody else thinks like I do. Anybody can win a one sided argument. I have paid plenty of attention to the likes of you. Do you like one sided arguments or are you ready to pay attention (listening doesn't have to mean you agree) to the likes of me?
...
Thanks for the advice buddy!
but it's okay I think I'll survive without your help.
If you know so much about investing why don't you amass extreme wealth and buy that 15,000 sq ft mansion.
You can show how much you "care" about us by inviting us over to a party sometime.
BTW I still think gold is in a long term bull market. You may recall after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there was a massive sell of in commodities almost across the board just like right now. Oil went from $80 down to $50. All the "mainstream" news people loudly declare the end to the commodity bull market....but we all know what happened after that. Prices skyrocketed afterwards: gold, oil, wheat, rice, etc... All markets go through boom and bust cycles and yes commodities will go bust in the future, but not now. I believe we still have at least 5 more years before this commodity bull market ends. When gold hits $3,000 and oil is $300 then I'll start to get scarred and say folks maybe we're at the top?
Cube,
I want to be mad at you but that just defeats the purpose. I wouldn't be true to myself if I let everybody that disagreed with me wrankle me so. I am more concerned with how it is that someone can make a post on a site like this stating to watch out for gold's fall and then come back and not so much say, 'I told you so', but let's talk about what comes next and not get any real discussion, rather a bunch of, 'if I am going to fall I am going to do it in style and maybe take you with me rhetoric'. People like you don't seem to want to hear anything but what you can understand as common knowledge or knowledge that is arrived at by mutual understanding. I am sorry that a rogue like me upsets your applecart. No, I don't arrive at what I say by means of listening to what others say. Yes, I do want to hold it to the scrutiny which a site like this brings. You are way out of line with your childish assertions. Sure I might be a little guilty of gloating, but I did that with respect. How about a little respect from you? Are you capable of it or do you judge yourself?
Posted: Sat May 03, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
evilgenius wrote:
Cube,
I want to be mad at you but that just defeats the purpose. I wouldn't be true to myself if I let everybody that disagreed with me wrankle me so. I am more concerned with how it is that someone can make a post on a site like this stating to watch out for gold's fall and then come back and not so much say, 'I told you so', but let's talk about what comes next and not get any real discussion, rather a bunch of, 'if I am going to fall I am going to do it in style and maybe take you with me rhetoric'. People like you don't seem to want to hear anything but what you can understand as common knowledge or knowledge that is arrived at by mutual understanding. I am sorry that a rogue like me upsets your applecart. No, I don't arrive at what I say by means of listening to what others say. Yes, I do want to hold it to the scrutiny which a site like this brings. You are way out of line with your childish assertions. Sure I might be a little guilty of gloating, but I did that with respect. How about a little respect from you? Are you capable of it or do you judge yourself?
Are you not taking me seriously?
I am NOT joking.
I still think we're in a commodity bull market and yes I have my money where my mouth is! The recent drop is a "correction" not an end. The price will jump back up and skyrocket past the previous highs. Just wait till next year or 2 years from now. You're going to regret that you didn't buy gold, oil, and wheat at these ridiculously low prices. Like I said before we are not at the top yet. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying I know how to call the shots. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow morning or next month. Maybe the price will drop by another 5% after I submit this post. It's anybody's guess. But I do know that we are in a long term bull market.
And why do you keep on complaining about people not wanting to hear you. I'm replying to your topic right now.
//
Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they didn't hear what you had to say.
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Damit ! i can't find it. oh well.
there's an article with a brief interview with Warren Buffett out this weekend.
he says he thinks the worst of the credit crisis is over, for Wall Street.
he also describes the Bear Stearns scenario, where he got a call from someone and they needed someone with $75 billion cash, to take on Bear Stearns. he only had $35-40 billion (in cash), so he had to pass.
i don't entirely buy it, but if the worse of the August 2007-April 2008 credit crisis _IS_ over for Wall Street, then ... it's wierd. it's like they're singing "happy days are here again" and dancing in the streets.
i don't know how much of what Buffett says is real, and how much is "trying to reassure the markets." _________________ http://www.LASIK-FLAP.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1305 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Quote:
there's an article with a brief interview with Warren Buffett out this weekend.
he says he thinks the worst of the credit crisis is over, for Wall Street.
That just means the liquidity is flowing freely. And it is not based on any fundamental changes to the economy.
So more likely with inflationary/stagflationary result rather than deflationary. _________________
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 523 Location: northern California
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Heineken wrote:
"At my age, that question gets scarier."
I was 5 years older than you are now when I bought this old homestead & made it into a home. Only now do I tend to wonder at that question, "what next?". It feels as if the music has just stopped and everyone is looking for a chair, any chair, even a seat on the floor. _________________ "And the cost of a thing, it will be remembered, is the amount of life it requires to be exchanged for it, immediately, or in the long run." H.D. Thoreau
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Not a lot of mystery here, there are a handful of super players in the gold and oil market and they are in bed together doing market manipulation. Of course the natural course is for these things to go higher in value in the big picture, however they are just simply rowing the market up and down in the short to mid term and getting a hell of a wealth transfer out of it. Of course when major events happen the market will swing as many of us are expecting but right now since not much is happening and they pretty much control the whole playing field they are manipulating the market in weird directions to pull huge amounts of money. It's a big casino at the moment. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 799 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Well Cube that's all I was asking. For what it's worth I was into gold stocks. I sold when I saw the recent peak at over $1000 an ounce. I plan on buying back in when the dollar makes it back to $1.75 to the pound or $1.35 to the euro, something like that or maybe $575 an ounce because I too think that this is a long term bull market, I just think that you can't fight the current deflationary trend. I don't think the gold bulls are going to lose everything, just the opportunity to capitalize on the next buying opportunity provided they can wait a while. I guess what I was really mad about was being compared to some little blue guy. Ha, ha.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1305 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Quote:
I guess what I was really mad about was being compared to some little blue guy.
If you back up your statements with a bit more analysis or substance to WHY you think a certain move / price target is valid, you shouldn't get the same treatment.
That would at least invite some constructive dialogue. _________________
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5685 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
dunewalker wrote:
Heineken wrote:
"At my age, that question gets scarier."
I was 5 years older than you are now when I bought this old homestead & made it into a home. Only now do I tend to wonder at that question, "what next?". It feels as if the music has just stopped and everyone is looking for a chair, any chair, even a seat on the floor.
It's a good question, Dune. How old is too old to make a change on this scale? Will vary widely with the individual, of course, but when there is heavy physical labor and hardship involved there are limits. It's a real consideration for older POers prepping for the future. For some, NO preps may be the rational choice.
A good subject for a separate thread. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 523 Location: northern California
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Oil and gold prices plunging
Heineken wrote:
"It's a good question, Dune. How old is too old to make a change on this scale? Will vary widely with the individual, of course, but when there is heavy physical labor and hardship involved there are limits. It's a real consideration for older POers prepping for the future. For some, NO preps may be the rational choice.
A good subject for a separate thread."
A separate thread? Isn't this about the plunge in prices of oil & gold? Oh yeah... I tend to stray a bit, huh? Got mad when Monte first pointed it out years ago...
Well, crude oil is up this morning so far, as are gold & silver--looks like a good time to buy precious metals, if you're not too old, that is... _________________ "And the cost of a thing, it will be remembered, is the amount of life it requires to be exchanged for it, immediately, or in the long run." H.D. Thoreau
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