Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:36 am Post subject: International Relations forum
I have a suggestion for a new forum, namely an International Relations forum.
As far as I can see, Peak Oil will significantly change the outlooks for war and peace. In mainstream-liberalism theory, it is suggested that international trade is the garant of stability and peace between states, due to the fact that everyone can gain economically from trading with one another.
However, if peak oil is a reality, the welfare gain of one country will drive the energy prices up for all other countries, thereby making it uncertain whether there is an absolute gain for the trading partners. If for instance USA were to become 10% richer (and therefore consuming 10% more oil), it would increase the oil prices some 40-100%. Now, the people trading with USA might gain a 5% GDP gain through this, but the increased price of oil might cost more than gained through the trade.
Also worth noting, in a scarce resource situation, everyone not directly involved in any trade will get poorer as a result of that trade, since every increased oil consumption in any country will make every other country poorer due to higher oil prices.
How will this affect the relations between states? Does it mean more wars? Does it mean that the NATO for instance is in danger, since the members of NATO will lose a lot from each others economic gains? Is it bound to dissolve the WTO? Peak oil will certainly change a lot of things in the world, but the specifics of international relations are hard to envisage.
I would like to see a forum where questions like these could be discussed. I am myself a student of international relations, which might bias me to find this angle a very important one.
Joined: May 04, 2008 Posts: 1 Location: FNQ Australia
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: International Relations forum
I'm surprised there were so few responses to this post - it seems interesting and highly relevant. How will we need to rethink & reshape International Relations to take peak oil into account ?
It doesn't seem very high on the overall international agenda as yet.
Especially interested in any replies from downunder.
Joined: Nov 16, 2007 Posts: 252 Location: Rural Western Idaho
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:14 am Post subject: Re: International Relations forum
isobel wrote:
I'm surprised there were so few responses to this post - it seems interesting and highly relevant. How will we need to rethink & reshape International Relations to take peak oil into account ?
It doesn't seem very high on the overall international agenda as yet.
Especially interested in any replies from downunder.
I know it won't be overnight. But I have slid the slope to intense doomer so fast and far recently, that I have come to look at international relations as something way down the list of priorities/realities.
Think Kevin Costner's "Postman" movie. I've sort of (unrealistically) jumped forward to that kind of scenario (speaking with some hyperbole here.)
Localization will be so much more important that globalization. And I believe that will be true in a much shorter time than most people seem to think.
Lumpy
PS - If Big Tex reads this post, he will tell me to "calm down, now."
_________________ "Run when you can, walk when you have to, crawl if you must; just never give up."
-- Dean Karnazes, runner and author of Ultramarathon Man
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