Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Found the British report. Also described here. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2359 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:00 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
kublikhan wrote:
My entire point was as the price of oil goes up, the incentive to find more oil goes up. I think I have demonstrated that to be true.
It might be true, but the reality is discovery peaked somewhere in the late 60's. We haven't changed that in any significant way. A lot of cornucopians cant seem to grasp this. Discovery needs to be far above what it is today or even 15 years ago to have any hope of even remaining on a production plateau. The fact is since discovery has been in such decline the Math doesn't work out for the cornies.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
AirlinePilot wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
My entire point was as the price of oil goes up, the incentive to find more oil goes up. I think I have demonstrated that to be true.
It might be true, but the reality is discovery peaked somewhere in the late 60's. We haven't changed that in any significant way. A lot of cornucopians cant seem to grasp this. Discovery needs to be far above what it is today or even 15 years ago to have any hope of even remaining on a production plateau. The fact is since discovery has been in such decline the Math doesn't work out for the cornies. Math is a bitch, so is denial.
I said nothing about finding enough oil to plateau production. I was talking about the monetary incentives of bringing new production online(or turning back on old production). _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2864 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
AirlinePilot wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
My entire point was as the price of oil goes up, the incentive to find more oil goes up. I think I have demonstrated that to be true.
It might be true, but the reality is discovery peaked somewhere in the late 60's.
Thought it was '64. Think I've seen '62 as a date too. Of course as time goes by more oil is discovered and the absolute date shifts forward, ever more incrementally. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Quote:
Significant quantities of oil remain behind when marginal wells are prematurely abandoned. A common misperception is that oil left behind remains readily available for production when oil prices rise again. In most instances, this is not the case, leaving our nation more dependent on foreign oil imports.
There are over 420,000 of these wells in the United States, and together they produce more than 915,000 barrels of oil per day, or about 18 percent of U.S. production.
We have heard a lot of claims on this thread, like the US produces 1.2 mb/d from stripper wells. The Dept. of Energy says it’s 915,000. We have heard that increasing prices will increase extraction from these wells, the Dept. of Energy says not necessarily so. Read what the DOE has to say.
It sounds to me like the DOE is saying very much the same thing I have been saying! As prices go up there is not necessarily an incentive to increase exploration and development. The fundamental reasons result from energy considerations. If such an incentive existed we would not have seen consumption exceed discover by 4 to 1 for the last 35 years, even though prices have increased by 1200% over the period.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5415 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
shortonoil wrote:
Quote:
Significant quantities of oil remain behind when marginal wells are prematurely abandoned. A common misperception is that oil left behind remains readily available for production when oil prices rise again. In most instances, this is not the case, leaving our nation more dependent on foreign oil imports.
There are over 420,000 of these wells in the United States, and together they produce more than 915,000 barrels of oil per day, or about 18 percent of U.S. production.
We have heard a lot of claims on this thread, like the US produces 1.2 mb/d from stripper wells. The Dept. of Energy says it’s 915,000. We have heard that increasing prices will increase extraction from these wells, the Dept. of Energy says not necessarily so. Read what the DOE has to say.
It sounds to me like the DOE is saying very much the same thing I have been saying! As prices go up there is not necessarily an incentive to increase exploration and development. The fundamental reasons result from energy considerations. If such an incentive existed we would not have seen consumption exceed discover by 4 to 1 for the last 35 years, even though prices have increased by 1200% over the period.
Doug MacIntosh of the US Energy's EIA was asked on a business report this week if oil prices would drop and would more oil become available at these prices. He said basically no and no.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
FACTBOX-Why are U.S. gasoline prices so high?
Quote:
Crude oil prices -- which account for over half the cost of gasoline at the pump -- hit records near $120 a barrel this week, five times higher than they were in 2002 amid surging demand from China and other developing nations. Some of the increase in crude prices has been passed down to consumers at the pumps, but not all, meaning that fuel refiners and marketers are feeling the pinch. Refining companies like Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have responded by deliberately curtailing gasoline production until the price of gasoline rises relative to crude. U.S. refinery utilization is currently about 85 percent - levels not seen since October 2005 after hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut down Gulf Coast refineries.
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
shortonoil wrote:
We have heard a lot of claims on this thread, like the US produces 1.2 mb/d from stripper wells. The Dept. of Energy says it’s 915,000. We have heard that increasing prices will increase extraction from these wells, the Dept. of Energy says not necessarily so. Read what the DOE has to say.
That 915,000 figure quoted is old data. The number has increased since then. But the point is that even the 915,000 figure is an increase from 2005. High oil prices means you can turn on expensive wells. The opposite happens with low oil prices. Look what happened when the price of oil plummeted in the 80's. Cheap imports from Saudi Arabia skyrocketed while stripper wells were shut down. It's all about the benjamins!
Low Oil Prices
shortonoil wrote:
It sounds to me like the DOE is saying very much the same thing I have been saying! As prices go up there is not necessarily an incentive to increase exploration and development. The fundamental reasons result from energy considerations.
Read the article again. It doesn't mention even once EROEI. It says it is a misconception that you can simply flip a switch and turn on old idle wells. Many of them were plugged and are almost as expensive(perhaps more so in some cases) then drilling a new well. There is a lot of up front costs like drilling and buying equipment. Oil prices would have to stay at these record prices for several years for the economics to make sense. Some of the laws regarding plugging old wells are being changed, so this should get easier going forward. But it is still a problem.
shortonoil wrote:
If such an incentive existed we would not have seen consumption exceed discover by 4 to 1 for the last 35 years, even though prices have increased by 1200% over the period.
Not sure where this nonsense is coming from. High prices are not a magic wand to create more oil in the ground. What it is though, is an incentive to start looking in those hard to drill and expensive places. And even when such finds are found, it could take years for them to start pumping, and won't necessarily offset sharp declines in existing oil fields. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:20 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
The dire warning surrounding "discoveries" is caveated by restriction to Campbell's narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil which excludes Polar and Deep Sea production. It further hides actual current discoveries by "backdating".
Using Campbell's alternative figures for All Liquids (2007 - 2500-
gb) and illustrating the discoveries prior to backdating appears as shown:
_________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2864 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
FreddyH wrote:
The dire warning surrounding "discoveries" is caveated by restriction to Campbell's narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil which excludes Polar and Deep Sea production. It further hides actual current discoveries by "backdating".
Using Campbell's alternative figures for All Liquids (2007 - 2500-
gb) and illustrating the discoveries prior to backdating appears as shown:
Any of us lunatics who want to parse this further go to Freddy's URR page: Link. Regarding Polar production (North, I assume!) Jean Laherrere wrote a piece for TOD recently on Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates:
Quote:
Conclusion
The Arctic oil and gas potential has been fairly well explored since 1943 and displayed several cycles with little discovered volumes since 1990 (despite 75 discoveries in number of fields). Known discoveries have three times more gas than oil. Most of the Arctic gas reserves are stranded (Prudhoe Bay) gas pipes from such remote places are very expensive and will be built only in a decade.
The recent attempt by the Russians to claim the North Pole is attributed to oil and gas potential. The only seismic line on the Arctic Sea I know of is from a study by the IODP:
Quote:
The scientific inspiration that subsequently led to ACEX surfaced aboard F/S Polarstern in 1991 when two reflection seismic profiles (AWI-91090 and AWI-91091) were acquired by Wilfried Jokat and Yngve Kristoffersen across the Lomonosov Ridge between 87° and 88°N. These profiles show a neatly draped sediment sequence being over 400 m thick, at a modest water depth of ca 1200 m, which were considered to represent an undisturbed and continuous record of lower Eocene to Recent sediments.
A thickness of 400 m is not enough for a real oil and gas potential. The Russian's move seems to be more connected to controlling sea navigation.
Arctic oil and gas will not change much the coming world peak oil and gas!
So much for a silver lining on a vanishing sea ice cap. If you think it'd be a piece of cake to drill through the Greenland ice sheet (assuming there's much oil there in the first place), search Google Images for 'Greenland moulin.' Etc.
ASPO are dismissing the additions from deepwater drilling - looking at the additions from Megaprojects opening up in Brazil and elsewhere I agree. All the money poured into exploiting them will raise the price that much more, too. DemandDestructionRulz. Reserves additions have been hashed over here and elsewhere as well. Their most fervent adherents begin to sound like wild eyed medieval theologians after a while. You know, with new technology we can cram even more angels on this pin head! I prefer the reasoning we hear on the fringe - sticky little details like the way North Sea production isn't reversing its decline. Sheer lunacy, I know! _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 11:24 pm Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch
Quote:
The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It is controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?
First, the role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo.
A glance at the price for Brent and WTI futures prices since January 2006 indicates the remarkable correlation between skyrocketing oil prices and the unregulated trade in ICE oil futures in US markets.
In the most recent sustained run-up in energy prices, large financial institutions, hedge funds, pension funds and other investors have been pouring billions of dollars into the energy commodities markets to try to take advantage of price changes or hedge against them. Most of this additional investment has not come from producers or consumers of these commodities, but from speculators seeking to take advantage of these price changes.
atimes _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2864 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 7:18 am Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
[quote="Graeme"]Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch
Quote:
The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It is controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds.
This is Engdahl's story, which already has a thread. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
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