Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Freddy,
In your site you make a very poor call when you find "all liquids" a good description of available energy. while you may think that we don't care where it comes from... the truth is Ethanol and Bio-diesel are ALREADY impacting prices of commodities (rain/ soy/ coconut etc.)
Peoples are already going hungry, or at the least paying more for basic foodstuffs.
This WILL impact our lives, and may force a re-think of the whole Bio-fuels issue. (thus hastening the peak)
And while I agree we may never "run out of oil", it can't be said that a long tail of production will sustain an industrial lifestyle for the full theoretical lifespan of petroleum as a fuel source and a feedstock.
It's simply as ludicrous as the "doomers" to think that shale and tar sands will sustain an advanced society.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
The_Virginian wrote:
Freddy, In your site you make a very poor call when you find "all liquids" a good description of available energy.
While i consider most of your other comments a rant, it is fair for u to criticize the calculation of All Liquids within this thread.
IEA has promised for several seasons that they would consider the input energy in processing non-conventional liquids and their reporting. But their failure to address this issue (as opposed to EIA) has led to the current situation where those two agencies now sport a 1.2-mbd discrepancy.
After many years of adopting IEA stats for most of our charts, i applaud the "net" figures seeming utilized by EIA. Last week, we commenced using current and some recent historic data of EIA instead in most of our applications... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 3:48 am Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Freddy,
Well, thank you for considering part of my criticism on "your level" EH?
On your website, which is where I was basing most of my post, you seemed to give the impression that "all liquids" was ok, because "people don't care where their fuel comes from"...(paraphrase).
I'm glad to see you seem to have changed your opinion on that matter.
On the other issue:
Honestly, how do you feel society will cope with increasing costs of energy?
(In terms of human labor, and our ability to create money FRN's/ Euro /Loonies-CDN- and other fiat currency, and energy needed to extract the petroleum.)
At what point do you feel that we pass a "breaking point" in human affairs...and our energy dependent world takes a historical turn for the worse.
I am asking your educated opinion on when the proverbial "Rome is sacked"?
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
The_Virginian wrote:
Freddy,
Well, thank you for considering part of my criticism on "your level" EH?
On your website, which is where I was basing most of my post, you seemed to give the impression that "all liquids" was ok, because "people don't care where their fuel comes from"...(paraphrase).
I'm glad to see you seem to have changed your opinion on that matter.
On the other issue:
Honestly, how do you feel society will cope with increasing costs of energy?
(In terms of human labor, and our ability to create money FRN's/ Euro /Loonies-CDN- and other fiat currency, and energy needed to extract the petroleum.)
At what point do you feel that we pass a "breaking point" in human affairs...and our energy dependent world takes a historical turn for the worse.
I am asking your educated opinion on when the proverbial "Rome is sacked"?
Respectfully (EH?),
The Virginian
There has been no change in my sentiment wrt energy inputs on non-conventionals. I have commented many times over the past two years on the issue of double counting (1.2-mbd) and the progress (or lack thereof) by the Agencies. Regardless, the error factor is less than 2% of total production.
I am also steadfast in my speculation that non-conventionals, presently 22-mbd of the 86-mbd production flow, will continue to bridge the transition to non-fossil fuel energy alternatives. Substitution, conservation and Demand destruction realities shall assist with weaning off regular conventional oil products.
I fear no associated calamity. The avg of the present production profiles indicates that the transition encompasses a one decade plateau followed by decline of no more 1.2%/yr.
The base Price of $60/barrel will continue its 3%/month growth rate. Because petroleum spending comprises less than 3% of the CPI in most g-20 nations, little economic disruption is forecast as prices rise ever higher.
Virginian, should u with to continue this conversation, we should move the discussion to a more revelant thread than STEO! _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Today's STEO reports that the long time July 2006 record of 85.5-mbd was surpassed in Dec 2007 (85.8-mbd). A new monthly record was subsequently set in Feb 2008 @ 86.0-mbd.
This extends the discrepancy on quarterly reporting betw IEA & EIA to an astonishing 1.4-mbd. I would estimate that 1.0-mbd is attributable to BTL inputs & 0.4-mbd to bitumen & heavy oil processing.
Revised Annual production:
2004 - 83.12-mbd
2005 - 84.65
2006 - 84.60
2007 - 84.60
2008 - 85.81 (YTD to April 30th)
The downward revisions in April STEO amends TrendLines Underlying Decline Rate upwards to 2.9% (2.6-mbd/yr) for 2008. UD is increasing 0.27-mbd/yr. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Like the IEA's OMR, the EIA's STEO is showing continued downward revisions for previous months. For example, in February, the forecast estimate for February was 86.52 mbpd. Once February had actually passed, the first hindsight estimate was 86.22. The revisions since then are: 86.10, 85.97 and, the latest estimate, 85.83.
Consequently, the estimate for May, of 86.11, which is the closest to the IEA figure that I've seen in a while, may be a tad high, though it represents a significant jump from the (again revised) estimate for April, which is 85.26.
Looking back up this thread, I see that Freddy's records will need adjustment. The new EIA record (from STEO figures) is in May, at 86.11, which is below the previous "record" set in February.
These figures are all down a little from what Freddy posted previously, from 2005 onwards.
Based purely on the recent history of revisions, I'm expecting the 2008 figure to be revised down by the end of the year. The STEO, however, is forecasting 86.54 mbpd for the whole of this year, and 87.65 for next year.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1930 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
I should mention consumption and inventories, too.
The STEO estimated a sharp downturn in consumption, for May, which left the world awash with oil. By their estimates, inventories should have regained almost all of the draw that had been made this year, up to May. Consumption is not expected to exceed production again until December.
If this is true, we should see prices falling for most of the rest of this year (barring some climatic or geopolitical event).
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
TonyPrep wrote:
I should mention consumption and inventories, too.
The STEO estimated a sharp downturn in consumption, for May, which left the world awash with oil. By their estimates, inventories should have regained almost all of the draw that had been made this year, up to May. Consumption is not expected to exceed production again until December.
If this is true, we should see prices falling for most of the rest of this year (barring some climatic or geopolitical event).
Agreed. Consumption figures have been aggressively cutback by EIA, to the degree that 2007Q4 regains the Consumption Qtr'ly Record: 86.6-mbd.
The implication on inventories was that there were substantial recorded builds for two of the last three months. This makes the upward price activity that much more strange.
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May. The monthly national record for global production is Russia's 11.5-mbd in 1987. This and the Saudi 11.2-mbd record of Feb/2006 are both poised to be broken in Q3/Q4. The Saudi boost of 300-kbd was spawned by field increases at Ghawar and others. The 2008 750-kbd MegaProject commisssions of Khursaniyah & Nuayyim are yet to flow:
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1930 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
FreddyH wrote:
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May.
Where did this figure come from? It's way bigger than the figures I've seen in recent months and years. The latest EIA IPM has Saudi Arabia at 9.200 mbpd, for the first 3 months of this year, so you are suggesting a 1.6 mbpd increase since then.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May.
Where did this figure come from? It's way bigger than the figures I've seen in recent months and years. The latest EIA IPM has Saudi Arabia at 9.200 mbpd, for the first 3 months of this year, so you are suggesting a 1.6 mbpd increase since then.
EIA All Liquids production was 86.1-mbd in May. The KSA component was 10.8-mbd. Perhaps your reference does not include the KSA share of the Neutral Zone, NGL & other liquids that comprise EIA's figure. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1930 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:42 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
FreddyH wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May.
Where did this figure come from? It's way bigger than the figures I've seen in recent months and years. The latest EIA IPM has Saudi Arabia at 9.200 mbpd, for the first 3 months of this year, so you are suggesting a 1.6 mbpd increase since then.
EIA All Liquids production was 86.1-mbd in May. The KSA component was 10.8-mbd. Perhaps your reference does not include the KSA share of the Neutral Zone, NGL & other liquids that comprise EIA's figure.
You're right with your last point. The IPM includes the neutral zone in the Persian Gulf figure. However, the IEA OMR, last month, put the neutral zone production at 0.58 mbpd. The Saudi share is normally taken to be half of that. That would put Saudi production at about 9.5 mbpd. Are you saying that the neutral zone production increased by 2.6 mbpd last month? If so, or if not, where did you get your figure from?
As a side note, the IEA-only estimates, for April, showed Saudi production at 9.05 mbpd, including half of neutral zone production.
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