Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge--Mar 18 data
PUP55
" Since sparky turned in his or her guesses late, he or she will only get 3/4 of the respect or admiration that everyone else does if they win. "
Nope , I logged my Tip on the 28 of December ,
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:58 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Hight 167$ Low 89 $ closing 160$
I was simply pointing out that one fifth of the year in , I was feeling comfortable with my initial price range
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3897 Location: Graceland
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:15 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge--Mar 18 data
I know it won't count, but I want to participate anyway.
High: $117
Low: $84
Close: $103 _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge New Leader
If the current high as of 21. march stands year out, the year close must be under roughly US$109 if I shall beat dbruning. If the high rise to above US$122, then the close must be under roughly US$104 for me to beat dbruning.
The recent runup in price have surpriced me. I had supposed the price should be lower based on the downturn in the US and supposedly a relatively large addition of new capasity this year. I fear a very steep increase in the price a couple year ahead. From 2010 and onward, the addition of new capasity is projeted to be much lower than this and next year. From 2010 or 2011 I assume a distinct and noticeable downward trend in the crude and condensate production. We are truly headed into an interesting and challenging time.
Note: With the high now at just under 120, 13 out of the 20 (65%) of the "expert forecasters" have underestimated the high, compared to 12 of the 48 (25%) of the PO.com forecasters.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5200 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:43 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 21)
This may be fairly obvious but if there is a shooting war with Iran my year end amount of $122, and even the high of $146, will appear in retrospect way too low.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3278 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Tanada wrote:
What the heck, I am too opinionated NOT to participate
High price 2008, $166.23
Average price 2008, $123.77
Low price 2008, $82.30
Method intuition aka WAG.
We are getting dang close to my average, but it seems too early in the year. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1567 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28)
Pup, when posting these spreadsheets, try using the code tags, like this:
Code:
[code]
Year Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Other World
1997 Average 3,280 191 362 2,238 65,744
1998 Average 3,167 246 388 2,266 66,966
1999 Average 2,826 290 409 2,240 65,922
2000 Average 3,155 316 438 2,228 68,495
[/code]
Which should end up like this:
Code:
Year Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Other World
1997 Average 3,280 191 362 2,238 65,744
1998 Average 3,167 246 388 2,266 66,966
1999 Average 2,826 290 409 2,240 65,922
2000 Average 3,155 316 438 2,228 68,495
And I'm sneaking up that list with my $175 high price. I didn't know I split Goldman Sach's superspike prediction! _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5200 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28)
joewp wrote:
And I'm sneaking up that list with my $175 high price. I didn't know I split Goldman Sach's superspike prediction!
The startling part about the GS superspike report is that are revising up previous a superspike prediction. Even more amusing is that the original superspike 'prediction' of a few years back of $105 was based on some type of military conflict we never had. I read the actual orginal report, which is frequently misquoted - even by the likes of usually reliable media sources.
I'm guessing not many conventional energy analysts even predicted as high as $122 at the start of the year.
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I logged my Tip on the 28 of December ,
