"Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing in nations such as South Africa and China mean the price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest metals mines."
"Some examples of the production problems:
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's biggest publicly traded copper producer; Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the largest in iron ore; and gold-producer Newmont Mining Corp. all say power shortages threaten to reduce future output.
Rio Tinto Group, the second-biggest producer of aluminum, cut production at its New Zealand smelter 5 percent, or 1,400 metric tons a month, on May 1 because of power constraints caused by drought.
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of that metal, said April 29 that first-quarter output plunged 24 percent to 428,600 ounces because of cuts in the supply of electricity to its South African mines.
Congo, the world's largest source of cobalt for batteries and jet engines, asked mining companies Friday to cut electricity use after power-transmission cables were stolen.
Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-biggest bank by assets, raised its 2008 cobalt price forecast 50 percent to $45 a pound March 26 because of Congo's electricity shortages. The price was at $48.50 Friday, according to Metal Bulletin data." _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4451 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
Locally, some assholes are stealing cans that people donate to the schools. The one case they took $300 worth to a school that was going to use it to build a garden.
Pretty soon they'll be tearing the farking siding off of houses (AL/SS). _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
If anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse, please take off the welding goggles you are wearing for sunglasses, pound out the concrete poured in your ears, and remove your head from your ass, the sand, or in some cases both.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
People of dubious character and work ethic who were barely getting by before this run-up in prices are now stealing anything made of metal they can get their hands on. If you have a small scrap metal pile of pieces you might use to fix things around your farm you better move it to a hidden or better yet locked location.
If prices contimue to rise we are going to see some real third world behavior where anything that is not secured is stolen.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
AirlinePilot wrote:
A neighbor of mine had the catalytic converter literally sawed off his vehicle and carried away in a parking lot at work.
I guess there are some interesting metals inside those things.
platinum - it has something to do with converting harmful gas emissions into something less harmful. I don't know how the chemistry works, I just know you're more likely to get your catalytic converter stolen these days than your car stereo.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3391 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
Regarding CCs:
Quote:
The catalyst itself is most often a precious metal. Platinum is the most active catalyst and is widely used. However, it is not suitable for all applications because of unwanted additional reactions and/or cost. Palladium and rhodium are two other precious metals that are used. Platinum and rhodium are used as a reduction catalyst, while platinum and palladium are used as an oxidization catalyst. Cerium, iron, manganese and nickel are also used, though each has its own limitations. Nickel is not legal for use in the European Union (due to reaction with carbon monoxide). While copper can be used, its use is illegal in North America due to the formation of dioxin.
Article _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 357 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
There have been some brazen thefts of bronze statues reported all over the northwest where we have a huge Meth problem. In one case, 2 statues worth about $30,000 were sawed off at the ankles and sold for scrap. Copper light fittings on streetlights are stolen all the time. Oh, yeah, don't forget all the wiring stolen out of all the foreclosed homes in suburbia.
Things are going to get a lot worse. I can't decide if I'm more worried about the thieves or the public over-reacting and building-up a police state to "solve" the problem.
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 291 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
While interesting the theft of metals is old hat. 30+ years ago, the first two assignments I had on the railroad were dealing with the aftermath of copper or lead theft. There were times when my job was to burn holes in manhole covers so we could lock them down. They made good mud anchors for moorings.
What IS interesting in the article is that it points to a SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE. You have to dig a little to follow the fuzzy dots. Metals prices are rising in the face of lessing demand due to a Western recession. That is not the normal economic model. So something else is going on here. That something is Peak Oil.
Western recession due (in part) to increasing oil price. Output falls which should reduce demand and hence price.
BUT increasing price of oil causes economic hardships AND greater cost of energy. High cost energy drives up price of metal. Locals get squeezed and start scavenging the system due to their recession and high value of metal. This reduces system reliability which makes metal more scarce which drives up price. This worsens economy making locals more desperate who will scavenge more leading to less reliable systems driving up price further.
This, I believe, represents a Closely Coupled system in negative feedback. Unless the loop can be broken it can lead to sudden and catastrophic system failures. These types of failures are characterized as rare and devastating and inevitable.
The question is simply: Can the feedback paths be broken?
I have no idea if this metals trend is sufficiently significant to take down our over-alll system. It is both interesting and worthy of concern. It is illustrative of how seemingly unrelated events can turn on themselves in unexpected ways. _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
Joined: Sep 03, 2005 Posts: 75 Location: Germany, State M-V
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:06 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
Quote:
If anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse,
Recentyl i began to read a big document (55 pages, written by two enviornmental groups regenwald.org (=Rain forest.org) and grain.org) about the madness of the agroenergy. It describes the plan of big players like Rabobank, Cargill, ADM, Societe General, Exxon, Chevron as they had and are investing billions of dollars into plantations and other projects to produce animal feed and vegetable oil or ethanol.
For me it's now clear that we will never get a 'real' energy crisis (at least for the industrialized countries), but a lot of people (also some in the named countries) can't afford to buy any other things but food.
The Philippines are the biggest importer of rice. Because of the high prices of rice now the state is selling rice at a low fixed price at some places. Some poor people can't afford to get to this places and therefore they have to pay the double price.
The price of oil will rise till it is comparable to that of vegetable oil. When all the bioenergy projets in the world will be finished, the price of liquid energy will perhaps get down again.
But before there will be with a very high probability a world wide recession.
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 291 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
Jupidu wrote:
Quote:
If anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse,
Recentyl i began to read a big document (55 pages, written by two enviornmental groups regenwald.org (=Rain forest.org) and grain.org) about the madness of the agroenergy. It describes the plan of big players like Rabobank, Cargill, ADM, Societe General, Exxon, Chevron as they had and are investing billions of dollars into plantations and other projects to produce animal feed and vegetable oil or ethanol.
For me it's now clear that we will never get a 'real' energy crisis (at least for the industrialized countries), but a lot of people (also some in the named countries) can't afford to buy any other things but food.
The Philippines are the biggest importer of rice. Because of the high prices of rice now the state is selling rice at a low fixed price at some places. Some poor people can't afford to get to this places and therefore they have to pay the double price.
The price of oil will rise till it is comparable to that of vegetable oil. When all the bioenergy projets in the world will be finished, the price of liquid energy will perhaps get down again.
But before there will be with a very high probability a world wide recession.
Agreed, it seems we are starting into a downward spiral. Our recent (100-years) past was an upward spiral fueled by cheap energy. Now the spiral has flattened and is starting downward. The only question is how fast and how smooth.
As we start to unwind things go against us. For example a group of scientist are proposing to build solar power plants in American South West. Large capital cost involved. Need aluminum and copper, lots, to build transmission system. Cost of copper and aluminum is going up because they require energy to make. That drives up capital cost of project making it too expensive to build. Cable jackets and insulation materials also come from oil and are sensitive to the price thereof. Kunstler talks about this in The Long Emergency.
A thought just struck me about defining Peak Oil. Rather than looking at total raw production or the cost per bbl of oil look at annual (monthly?) production per person (total human population) as in:
barrels/year/person
Has anyone ever plotted that curve or something similar? _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
Newfie said:
Quote:
A thought just struck me about defining Peak Oil. Rather than looking at total raw production or the cost per bbl of oil look at annual (monthly?) production per person (total human population) as in:
barrels/year/person
Has anyone ever plotted that curve or something similar?
Most studies on this subject use energy units, so as to make possible the comparison of all energy sources.
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: Re: outage slams metal prices
There were a couple of guys out in Montana recently that were caught digging up the ground wires from electrical substations. The thing that really struck me was that they were doing something like $10,000 worth of damage to get $45 in scap wire. That was an aspect of the metal theft issue I hadn't really contemplated...that the economic damage from it could be several hundred fold of the actual material loss. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
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More love to those who do not work with Monsanto please, there are more of us 
