How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
10.6 mbd crude and 1.5 mpd gasoline imports. The obvious question is where are they coming from. Those are very high import numbers. If they are somehow sustainable we wont have to worry about supply issues I dont think. Are the fears about lack of imports unfounded and just a bit late in getting going?
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4227 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Still have very low refinery operation and are still burning a lot of gasoline. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
The import flood continues, both unleaded and crude oil in anticipation of summer. Refinery production is still low, but as long as the Europeans are willing to sell us their inventory, this will continue to go on.
The market is likely to see this and take a breather, lots of oil around, apparently.
Refinery production is now behind my already 6-week late trajectory, but as long as 1.5 mbpd of unleaded comes into the country, we can all keep driving.
The products supplied/demand number ought to cause some excitement.
I have fallen to only 53% better than the analysts, with this week's 1-2 showing.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Lots of oil around
Good, bad, or intermediate oil--e.g. how efficiently refinable is the stuff?
Also, it seems to me that the US situation alone no longer necessarily moves the markets in the way we have become accustomed to. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Dan1195 wrote:
Well. Inventory report shows 5.7M crude build! Also 0.8M gasoline build. Imports must be really ramping up. Will be interesting to see the breakdown. My question is obviously where are they coming from?
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Well despite the seemingly bearish inventory report AND a stronger dollar vs the Euro, the price of oil is still holding steady. clearly other factors are at work.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Dan1195 wrote:
Well despite the seemingly bearish inventory report AND a stronger dollar vs the Euro, the price of oil is still holding steady. clearly other factors are at work.
Looks like the price of Brent has been rising faster than WTI. The gap is currently $1. Historically, I am guessing the WTI premium is greater although I remember this time last year Brent was above WTI. The EIA weekly report is just part (25% of the total market) of the overall global picture.
EDIT: The average WTI premium to Brent is $1.72 as per this analysis.
Last edited by GoghGoner on Wed May 07, 2008 1:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Well despite the seemingly bearish inventory report AND a stronger dollar vs the Euro, the price of oil is still holding steady. clearly other factors are at work.
going higher, actually.
This is one of those days when the "analysts" will look at a report and find any little excuse they can to run panicking into the streets with their hair on fire.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
I must say I'm surprised. What was the price one year ago? $62? One year ago, was anyone predicting $123 now?
One thing this clearly shows is the inelastic consumption. It is required an awfully high price to make any serious dent in demand. Here in Norway all is running as normal. Due to the weakened dollar we havent had that much increase in the fuel price since last year. Those most hurt is those few still using heating oil in their houses. If the dollar stays the same against Euro, I dont think even $200 will make a serious dent in consumption here. Not in the short run anyway. But at some point something is to give way. It will be very interesting to see the events unfold.
Last edited by SteinarN on Wed May 07, 2008 2:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Dan1195 wrote:
10.6 mbd crude and 1.5 mpd gasoline imports. The obvious question is where are they coming from. Those are very high import numbers. If they are somehow sustainable we wont have to worry about supply issues I dont think. Are the fears about lack of imports unfounded and just a bit late in getting going?
The recent high water mark in Exports was set in July 2006 when global production set a record of 85.5-mbd. In the OPEC led correction to inventories (via quota restrictions), production subsided to the 83.8-mbd level (down 1.7-mbd) by Aug 2007.
Over the last two quarters oil production has blasted back 2.2-mbd to set a new monthly record of 86.0-mbd in Feb 2008. The renewed export activity is a reflection of six months of steady increased flow as evidenced by the new quarterly records in Q4 & Q1.
Whereas 2006 production was 84.6-mbd, YTD 2008 is running at 85.8-mbd. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Freddy follows these numbers closely, and I think is right on the issue of increased production.
The question is, how much of it comes here, and how much goes to China, which, last I remember, had a fuel usage increase of 12% compared to last year.
We had a report the other day to the effect that Mexico will reduce exports to the US to around 1.4 mbpd, which is a reduction of about .3 mbpd. Take that little bit out of the world market.
I think someone posted a chart above about what the unleaded inventory situation was for the past few months, which was outsized higher than normal and is just now correcting to its seasonal level. Also we know that for about the last 6 months, the US crude oil inventory has drawn down steadily. I believe the inventory was at about 340 mbbl toward the end of last summer, and is now down to about 311 and stable.
As long as we continue to import 1.5 mbpd of unleaded, we will all be able to drive no problem. We ran that little model the other day that says anything over about 1.1 will keep us out of trouble.
I think historically, really Saudi has done a reasonably good job of anticipating the global inventory situaton and adjusting their production to try to keep the inventory stable.
At the moment, if you look at the numbers and nothing else, there should not be a panic. There is sufficient inventory in both crude oil and products to keep the situation stable for awhile. The finished products imports are sufficient, at the moment, to keep unleaded inventories mostly stable even though our refiners are running at only 85% throughput.
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Thursday, 11:00 AM EST, crude 123.40, RBOB up .001. The traders aren’t buying the all is well story. I expected to see a down turn in crude today after yesterdays report. Something's up, and they are dead sure of it. Sure enough to put their $ into it.
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