Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2007-08

Dan1195 · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 263

10.6 mbd crude and 1.5 mpd gasoline imports. The obvious question is where are they coming from. Those are very high import numbers. If they are somehow sustainable we wont have to worry about supply issues I dont think. Are the fears about lack of imports unfounded and just a bit late in getting going?

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1112

Yeah, Dan, but what if Peter is being robbed to pay Paul?
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

frankthetank

Still have very low refinery operation and are still burning a lot of gasoline.
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"Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3697

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1112

sjn

sjn

Dan1195 · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 263

Well despite the seemingly bearish inventory report AND a stronger dollar vs the Euro, the price of oil is still holding steady. clearly other factors are at work.

GoghGoner · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 415

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3697

SteinarN · Tar Sands Joined: Sep 20, 2007 Posts: 95 Location: Norway

I must say I'm surprised. What was the price one year ago? $62? One year ago, was anyone predicting $123 now?

One thing this clearly shows is the inelastic consumption. It is required an awfully high price to make any serious dent in demand. Here in Norway all is running as normal. Due to the weakened dollar we havent had that much increase in the fuel price since last year. Those most hurt is those few still using heating oil in their houses. If the dollar stays the same against Euro, I dont think even $200 will make a serious dent in consumption here. Not in the short run anyway. But at some point something is to give way. It will be very interesting to see the events unfold.

FreddyH

oilluber · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 03, 2005 Posts: 461

Freddy, you have not earned the privilege of posting on this
intellectual thread as Pupp and Dantes have.

Your bearish rants are tiresome.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3697

Freddy follows these numbers closely, and I think is right on the issue of increased production.

The question is, how much of it comes here, and how much goes to China, which, last I remember, had a fuel usage increase of 12% compared to last year.

We had a report the other day to the effect that Mexico will reduce exports to the US to around 1.4 mbpd, which is a reduction of about .3 mbpd. Take that little bit out of the world market.

I think someone posted a chart above about what the unleaded inventory situation was for the past few months, which was outsized higher than normal and is just now correcting to its seasonal level. Also we know that for about the last 6 months, the US crude oil inventory has drawn down steadily. I believe the inventory was at about 340 mbbl toward the end of last summer, and is now down to about 311 and stable.

As long as we continue to import 1.5 mbpd of unleaded, we will all be able to drive no problem. We ran that little model the other day that says anything over about 1.1 will keep us out of trouble.

I think historically, really Saudi has done a reasonably good job of anticipating the global inventory situaton and adjusting their production to try to keep the inventory stable.

At the moment, if you look at the numbers and nothing else, there should not be a panic. There is sufficient inventory in both crude oil and products to keep the situation stable for awhile. The finished products imports are sufficient, at the moment, to keep unleaded inventories mostly stable even though our refiners are running at only 85% throughput.

shortonoil · Fission Joined: Dec 02, 2004 Posts: 2684 Location: VA USA

Thursday, 11:00 AM EST, crude 123.40, RBOB up .001. The traders aren’t buying the all is well story. I expected to see a down turn in crude today after yesterdays report. Something's up, and they are dead sure of it. Sure enough to put their $ into it.

Anyone want to guess what it is?