Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 8:56 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Don't have the energy to get involved in a long discussion, but I just thought I'd point out a couple of things... first, the excellent Rapture of the Nerds - Not article:
Quote:
[cut the beginning]
First, though, it’s worth listing some ways in which the singularity and the rapture do resemble each other. Both deal with something beyond human rules emerging into the world, something so powerful that, if it wanted to, it could make human effort from that point on irrelevant. Some predictions about the singularity have included ideas that this power would suddenly help us “transcend” human life and our human bodies, with uploading, in the critic’s mind, parallelling God snatching true believers up to Heaven. And with such an event looming on the horizon, it’s only to be expected that both groups would take the possibility very seriously, in some cases even making it a central concern in their lives.
Now, some differences:
* Rationalism: Whatever you want to call it — critical thinking, debiasing, epistemic hygiene — I don’t know of any movement that emphasizes this nearly to the extent that the singularity movement does. For example, a few of the posters at Overcoming Bias (a group blog that I highly recommend) are involved somehow in the singularity movement, and several others buy into some sort of transhumanist worldview. I think this convergence is a good sign. Here’s an article by Eliezer Yudkowsky (pronounced “Frankensteen”) that talks about how to avoid biased views of the future. Whatever you might call the rapture believers, paragons of rationality they’re not.
* Naturalism: Though this should be obvious, all developments associated with a technological singularity would take place within the ordinary physical processes that scientific folks have come to call home. Kooks like Terence McKenna, who connect the singularity to Mayan prophecies, are laughed at by serious singularitarians. Transhuman intelligence, through its ability to explore unexpected corners in solution space, may seem magical, but we all realize no actual magic is involved. I’m not one who would disqualify non-naturalistic claims outright; it’s just that, in my opinion, the evidence so far strongly favors a naturalist world. Still, it’s a difference worth noting.
* Uncertainty: Contrary to what you might think, most singularity activists don’t think a singularity is in any way an unavoidable consequence of technological progress; the collapse of human civilization, unfortunately, could avoid it quite well. Nor are they anywhere close to absolute certainty that the singularity is going to happen, or happen soon, the way the rapture people have faith in their rapture. It’s possible, after all, that we’ve underestimated the difficulties in making progress in AI, brain scanning, and the like. Experience from past attempts at futurism, as well as psychological research, tells us that it’s easy to be overconfident. But one thing they do agree on is the singularity is worth influencing, and some kinds are worth striving toward. In terms of expected value, even a 10% chance of such a world-changing event should cause many of us to refocus our efforts. A high-profile exception on this point may be Ray Kurzweil, whose overly precise predictions based on such an unreliable methodology as curve-extrapolating should earn him at least a little mockery (though there is also a lot to like in his writings).
* Human-caused: Rapture believers wait for an external God to save them, independent of human effort. Programming a transhuman AI, on the other hand, is something we humans can do. The singularitarian worldview is sometimes claimed to encourage an attitude of passive waiting. I think that’s an unfair accusation; it actually encourages going out and solving problems, just through a different approach.
* Nature contingent on human action: Again, contrary to what you might think, singularity activists don’t blindly expect a singularity to be positive. Intelligence sometimes helps humans understand how to bring out the best in themselves, but this will not generalize to AI. Unless thorough precautions are taken from the beginning, a superintelligent AI is likely to be indifferent toward us — not benevolent or cruel, just uncaring, except to the extent that our continued existence might get in the way of whatever it’s trying to achieve. That means it’s crucial for the first successful AI project to work under such precautions. And that is also to say: that a project under such precautions should be the first.
* No in-group perks: In the Singularity-as-Rapture-for-Nerds analogies that I’ve seen, it’s claimed that the Nerds expect only themselves to benefit, with the rest Left Behind in their misery, in the same way that only Christian true believers are supposed to benefit from the rapture. This seems like a clear example of fitting reality to your analogy when it should be the other way around. I haven’t seen any predictions by singularity advocates that restrict the effects to some elite group of techno-savvy westerners, nor have I seen anyone advocate that this should happen. The singularity is supposed to benefit humanity, not some particular group, and singularity activists understand this. If we succeeded at building an AI that cared enough to leave us alive in the first place, the AI would almost certainly be enough of a humanitarian to help all of us, and with maybe thousands of years of progress in a short time, it would have the resources to make this easy. Scenarios where only the rich and 31337 classes benefit from technological progress seem like a possible danger (though, if the cost of new technologies falls quickly enough, only a temporary one), but these are always pre-singularity scenarios.
* No religious trappings like rituals, worship, or holy writings. I’d expand on this further if this post were about comparisons to religion in general, but it’s specifically about rapturism.
* No revenge: One of the dynamics fueling religious rapture beliefs is the expectation of unbelievers being deliciously proved wrong when it happens, after which horrible things will happen to them. As far as I know, no one in the singularity movement deals in anything like these revenge fantasies. This is a good thing.
* No anthropomorphism: The Christian God is in a way just a big authoritarian alpha monkey, but a superintelligent AI is not expected to think or behave anything like a human. Perhaps it would manifest more like a new set of laws of nature than like a human leader. It might not even be conscious. It would certainly not be a source of arbitrary moral authority.
* The difference that actually matters, of course, is that a belief in the rapture is not justified by the evidence, and a qualified belief in the singularity, defined as disruptive changes caused by a recursively-improving superhuman AI, is. I have found a truly marvelous proof of this, but alas, it falls beyond the scope of this post.
It’s also interesting to think about what would happen if we applied “Rapture of the Nerds” reasoning more widely. Can we ignore nuclear warfare because it’s the Armageddon of the Nerds? Can we ignore climate change because it’s the Tribulation of the Nerds? Can we ignore modern medicine because it’s the Jesus healing miracle of the Nerds? It’s been very common throughout history for technology to give us capabilities that were once dreamt of only in wishful religious ideologies: consider flight or artificial limbs. Why couldn’t it happen for increased intelligence and all the many things that would flow from it?
It would be tragic if, by thinking of some subjects as inherently religious, we let the religious impose their terms on our understanding of the world.
MattSavinar wrote:
And Kurzweil is the same guy who downs 250 pills a day as it's part of his plan to live forever and turn into a space-faring cyborg. So citing him as an authority on anything is a tad silly.
The 1994 Dickson Prize in Scienc, a $50,000 prize awarded every year by Carnegie Mellon University to individuals who have "notably advanced the field of science." ... The 1998 "Inventor of the Year" award from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ... The 1999 National Medal of Technology, [the] highest award the President of the United States can bestow upon individuals and groups for pioneering new technologies...
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
MattSavinar wrote:
My guess is most or many of the people who subscribe to this idea have a lot in common with those who subscribe to the raptue idea in that they assumme (naturally, of course) they're going to be the ones going to heaven or becoming part of the singularity or whatever superhuman "reward" they fell they're in store for.
Hi Matt,
I've had quite a bit of contact with the various sub-types of the carriers of the Singularity meme. In my experience, your impression of the belief system these folks hold dear goes wide of the mark in a couple of ways.
The majority of them, again in my experience, think that godlike AI will snap its newly MiNTed nanotechnological fingers and solve all human problems in very short order, so there is no "elect" amidst a vast sea of the damned. They're more like Unitarian Universalists in that respect. Everybody passes through the gates into Singularity Heaven.
Also, very few of them credit this whole Peak Oil business as anything worthy of more than a moment's concern. The grand exponential march of technological evolution will deliver new sources of energy as needed. (No need to rehearse the "no one-to-one replacement for oil as an energy source" litany for me. I know it well. I'm describing the Singularitarian mindset here; not flogging it.)
Those who do take the time to incorporate Peak Oil into their worldview but continue to hold out hope for a "Geek Rapture" are likely to point to something along the lines of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change">Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns</a> or <a href="http://www.rawilson.com/sitnow.html">Robert Anton Wilson's Jumping Jesus Phenomenon</a> as evidence that the process that is carrying us toward a Singularity proceeds pretty-much uninterrupted by the cyclical rise and fall of empires and human populations.
I've heard people bring up the similarity between the "Geek Rapture" and the "Millenarian Christian Rapture" for over a decade now, but I've yet to see anyone flesh it out into a rigorous argument for rejecting the possibility of a technological singularity.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
KMO wrote:
MattSavinar wrote:
My guess is most or many of the people who subscribe to this idea have a lot in common with those who subscribe to the raptue idea in that they assumme (naturally, of course) they're going to be the ones going to heaven or becoming part of the singularity or whatever superhuman "reward" they fell they're in store for.
Hi Matt,
I've had quite a bit of contact with the various sub-types of the carriers of the Singularity meme. In my experience, your impression of the belief system these folks hold dear goes wide of the mark in a couple of ways.
The majority of them, again in my experience, think that godlike AI will snap its newly MiNTed nanotechnological fingers and solve all human problems in very short order, so there is no "elect" amidst a vast sea of the damned. They're more like Unitarian Universalists in that respect. Everybody passes through the gates into Singularity Heaven.
Also, very few of them credit this whole Peak Oil business as anything worthy of more than a moment's concern. The grand exponential march of technological evolution will deliver new sources of energy as needed. (No need to rehearse the "no one-to-one replacement for oil as an energy source" litany for me. I know it well. I'm describing the Singularitarian mindset here; not flogging it.)
Those who do take the time to incorporate Peak Oil into their worldview but continue to hold out hope for a "Geek Rapture" are likely to point to something along the lines of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change">Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns</a> or <a href="http://www.rawilson.com/sitnow.html">Robert Anton Wilson's Jumping Jesus Phenomenon</a> as evidence that the process that is carrying us toward a Singularity proceeds pretty-much uninterrupted by the cyclical rise and fall of empires and human populations.
I've heard people bring up the similarity between the "Geek Rapture" and the "Millenarian Christian Rapture" for over a decade now, but I've yet to see anyone flesh it out into a rigorous argument for rejecting the possibility of a technological singularity.
Welcome. And thanks for your great show. If readers of this thread haven't ever tuned into the C-Realm, I highly recommend it. I suppose this thread is a result of my having listened to a few C-Realm interviews.
(btw, KMO, I'm the guy who suggested your recent interview with author Steve Alten).
Can't wait for you to have Nate Hagens of TheOilDrum on again.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
This is nonsense. It's far worse than believing in God.
It's science faith integrism.
Let's suppose it's possible to create some kind of spiritual entity smarter than whole mankind. Let's then suppose that this infinite intelligence can create infinite energy and infinite ressources (It's smart enough for, isn't it?)
All right, you have created God. Congratulation.
So What? Ah! Yes, you can pray! Damn, let's pray together brothers!
We have billions of stars in the universe with probably millions of civilizations who did the same error as us, meaning exponential growth followed by die-off.
If it were possible to create a computer God, some outter space alien would have created one a long time before us.
Look around... Have you seen UFO? ET? Alien Robots? Nothing. Well, I admit there are some churchs, so perhabs God exists thanks to Alien technology.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Hey Schadenfreude,
Where is my paperless office? Where is my WiMax/3G network? Where is my halographic memory storage? Where is my 100mb both strean high speed internet conection? Where is my ev/plug in hybrid?
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
hironegro wrote:
Hey Schadenfreude,
Where is my paperless office? Where is my WiMax/3G network? Where is my halographic memory storage? Where is my 100mb both strean high speed internet conection? Where is my ev/plug in hybrid?
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Sys1 wrote:
We have billions of stars in the universe with probably millions of civilizations who did the same error as us, meaning exponential growth followed by die-off.
If it were possible to create a computer God, some outter space alien would have created one a long time before us.
Look around... Have you seen UFO? ET? Alien Robots? Nothing. Well, I admit there are some churchs, so perhabs God exists thanks to Alien technology.
This is just plain wrong. You're trying to make an inductive argument with no evidence. We have nothing that indicates that life is especially common (and indeed evidence points to the contrary) and no data as to the probability of intelligent life arising.
Sure, as soon as a civilization arises, it'll eat the galaxy if it survives. The problem is your argument is that intelligent life is common, with no evidence suggesting that thats reasonable to assume.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
hironegro wrote:
Hey Schadenfreude,
Where is my paperless office? Where is my WiMax/3G network? Where is my halographic memory storage? Where is my 100mb both strean high speed internet conection? Where is my ev/plug in hybrid?
Are you living in 1980 or something? Lots of this stuff we either have today, we'll never need, or we'll have in a couple years. I don't have a 100mb internet connection, damn, I'm real sad with my 5mb. I guess I'll have to wait five years.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Dezakin wrote:
hironegro wrote:
Hey Schadenfreude,
Where is my paperless office? Where is my WiMax/3G network? Where is my halographic memory storage? Where is my 100mb both strean high speed internet conection? Where is my ev/plug in hybrid?
Are you living in 1980 or something? Lots of this stuff we either have today, we'll never need, or we'll have in a couple years. I don't have a 100mb internet connection, damn, I'm real sad with my 5mb. I guess I'll have to wait five years.
hironegro wrote:
At some point a new technology after its r&d’ed will become limited by the infrastructure from a prior technology. We can cearly see this with mobile-phone, EV, and digital video technology!
Reading the thread helps bro!
Schadenfreude hasn't answered any thing in this thread that reasonably question the technical and economic viability of 'The Singularity."
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6555 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Schadenfreude wrote:
The question has arisen in many minds: If peak oil and other resource depletion is upon us, at what point will our technological progress slow or stop? Because it is showing absolutely no sign at all of any abatement.
I'm thinking energy use itself is only now starting to show some declines in YOY increases and of course it is directly related to the cost of primary energy sources.
Technology however is only related to energy cost by the ability of the potential market to purchase the end product of those inovations and we have barely scratched that surface wrt PO.
BTW, I'm only a selective Luddite and have posted many times about the lessons learned in oil-age agriculture that will help us going forward.
Before fossil fuels we learned lots of basic stuff, coal and then oil first let us learn more through their energy slaves but only when there we lots more consumers with lots more disposable income did we really see the big leaps in technology - especially the consumer kind.
Consult Gekko
V
V
V _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
I read it, you just dont make any arguments. How have mobile phones and digitial video technology been limited? The've been advancing for years and are still advancing. You're making assertions that just aren't true.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
hironegro wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
hironegro wrote:
Hey Schadenfreude,
Where is my paperless office? Where is my WiMax/3G network? Where is my halographic memory storage? Where is my 100mb both strean high speed internet conection? Where is my ev/plug in hybrid?
Are you living in 1980 or something? Lots of this stuff we either have today, we'll never need, or we'll have in a couple years. I don't have a 100mb internet connection, damn, I'm real sad with my 5mb. I guess I'll have to wait five years.
hironegro wrote:
At some point a new technology after its r&d’ed will become limited by the infrastructure from a prior technology. We can cearly see this with mobile-phone, EV, and digital video technology!
Reading the thread helps bro!
Schadenfreude hasn't answered any thing in this thread that reasonably question the technical and economic viability of 'The Singularity."
I've had to re-iterate several times now:
***THIS IS NOT A "TECHNOLOGY WILL SAVE US" ARGUMENT***
Got it?
It's just that I have come across several people active in the sustainability movement and who are very peak oil aware, and I have heard them comment that there could be a die-off alongside still-advancing technology and development.
They have commented on this because of the two seemingly counter-posed trends of (1) resource depletion, overshoot, eco-system destruction, etc, and (2) the incredible advances being made on a continual basis in science and technology.
Some of these sustainability activist types have tried to square this seeming paradox. They have said that there could be a human die-off alongside a progression towards The Singularity.
Similarly, Singularitarians also have said that a human die-off would do little to slow or stop the progression towards the Singularity.
I HAVE NO POSITION ON THIS!
But I follow science news all the time and some of it is positively staggering. I also follow what's happening with oil and resources and environment and I find it negatively staggering!
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6555 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, The Die-Off And The Technological Singularity
Schadenfreude wrote:
***THIS IS NOT A "TECHNOLOGY WILL SAVE US" ARGUMENT***
Got it?
I know how hard it is hard to poise arguments around here that go against the grain - I guess it's the same everywhere. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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